Moody’s(US:MCO) 贝塔投资智库·2025-05-19 04:17Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the U.S. government credit rating by Moody's has raised concerns about U.S. debt and its implications for the financial markets, leading to increased volatility in U.S. assets [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Concerns - Moody's downgraded the U.S. government credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing persistent budget deficits and a lack of signs of narrowing deficits [1]. - The U.S. federal budget deficit is approaching $2 trillion annually, exceeding 6% of GDP, with projections indicating it could reach nearly 9% of GDP by 2035 [4]. - The Congressional Budget Office warned that U.S. government debt could exceed post-World War II record levels, reaching 107% of GDP by 2029 [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, U.S. stock and bond futures fell, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.49% amid low trading volumes [1]. - Analysts expect the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields to rise by 5-10 basis points due to the downgrade, with the 30-year yield potentially exceeding 5% [2]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index is nearing its lowest point since April, reflecting growing skepticism about the dollar amid rising debt concerns [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Large investors, including sovereign funds and institutional investors, are beginning to replace U.S. Treasuries with other safe-haven assets, which may lead to rising debt servicing costs [2]. - Despite the downgrade, Barclays analysts believe it will not significantly impact congressional voting outcomes or lead to forced selling of Treasuries [5]. - The demand for U.S. government securities remains strong, indicating no immediate signs of a sell-off, despite concerns over trade tensions and fiscal irresponsibility [5].