汽车琰究·2025-05-19 05:54Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot sector is transitioning from thematic investment to growth investment, with 2025 expected to be the year of mass production globally, driven by technological advancements, major corporate involvement, and supportive government policies [1][7]. Industry Logic - AI Empowerment and Major Players' Entry: The industry is experiencing a threefold drive from technological upgrades, cost breakthroughs in scenarios, and intensive policy support [1][2]. - Technological Foundation Upgrade: Non-embodied large models are achieving task decomposition and planning, while embodied large models can directly output high-frequency action commands [1][2]. - Cost Breakthrough in Scenarios: Tesla's Optimus is set to leverage its automotive supply chain to reduce prices to $20,000-$30,000, with further cost reductions expected due to scale effects [1][2]. - Policy Catalysts: The 2025 government work report includes embodied intelligence as a future industry focus, with local policies enhancing technological breakthroughs and industrial clusters [1][2]. Supply Dimension - Global Industry Giants Forming Multi-Dimensional Resonance: Major companies like Tesla, Huawei, and Nvidia are intensifying their involvement in the humanoid robot sector, with Tesla aiming for thousands of units by 2025 and a million by 2027 [2][3][4]. - Tesla's Strategy: Plans to leverage automotive cost reduction experiences for humanoid robots, with a focus on mass production [2][3]. - Huawei's Focus: Establishing an innovation center for embodied intelligence, concentrating on multi-modal large models and flexible manufacturing technologies [2][3]. - Nvidia's Development: Building collaborative platforms for training, simulation, and deployment of humanoid robots [2][3]. Product Dimension - High Barriers and High Value: The core focus is on high-value components such as six-dimensional force sensors and planetary roller screws, with significant domestic substitution opportunities [3][4]. - Sensor Technology: Advancements in tactile sensors and visual solutions are critical for enhancing interaction and environmental modeling [3][4]. - Execution Layer Components: Key components include harmonic reducers and planetary roller screws, with a strong emphasis on domestic manufacturers capable of capturing market share [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on Supply Dimension: Focus on global tech giants and startups, particularly Tesla's industrialization process and domestic supply chains with strong demand certainty [4]. - Product Dimension Focus: Attention on high-growth areas like planetary roller screws and six-dimensional force sensors, which have low penetration rates [4]. - Automotive Parts Companies: Companies with strong customer positioning and production capabilities in automotive parts are recommended due to their overlap with humanoid robot supply chains [4].