摘要 ► 乘用车：分化加剧 规模效应 + 高端化驱动盈利 。 销量端：2025Q2乘用车批发销量合计711.1万辆，同比+13.0%，环比+11.8%；新能源乘用车批发销量 362.9万辆，同比+33.9%，环比+26.3%；出口140.1万辆，同比+13.9%，环比+25.1%；营收端：受益自主份额提升，高端 化驱动，样本企业营收6,739.6亿 元，同比+13.8%，环比+20.2%，赛力斯、蔚来、零跑、长城环比表现亮眼；毛利端：2025Q2乘用车企毛利率表现分化，样本车企毛利率15. 0%，同 比-0.7pct，环比-0.8pct，规模效应释放程度、产品结构优化能力为毛利率核心影响因素，赛力斯、长安、小鹏、零跑毛利率环比提升；利润端：2025Q2整体呈 现去库存压力增大导致车企折扣力度加大，挤压盈利空间，长城汽车、赛力斯受益产品结构向好，通过"技术溢价+精准细分市场定位"获得超额收益。 ►零部件：营收持续增长 智能化盈利表现亮眼。 营收端，2025Q2零部件板块营收2,664.2亿 元，同比＋15.7%，环比+14.5%，环比上升主要由于Q1为行业传 统淡季，生产在Q2得以释放。其中智能化、轻量化等细分 ...

摘要 ► 本 周数据： 2025年9月第1周（9.1-9.7）乘用车销量36.8万辆，同比-9.5%，环比-29.8%；新能源乘用车销量22.1万辆，同比+3.1%，环比-23.6%；新能源渗透率 60.2%，环比+4.8pct。 ► 本周行情 ：汽车板块本周表现强于市场 本周（9月8日-9月12日）A股汽车板块上涨3.9%，在申万子行业中排名第13位，表现强于沪深300（2.9%）。细分板块中，汽车零部件、汽车服务、商用载货 车、摩托车及其他、商用载客车分别上涨6.7%、4.8%、3.0%、3.0%、0.8%，乘用车下跌0.8%。 ► 本周观点： 本月建议关注核心组合 【 吉利汽车、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、比亚迪、小米集团、伯特利、拓普集团、新泉股份、沪光股份、春风动力 】 。 ► 机器人板块Q4迎来重磅催化 T链将成为核心主线 特斯拉预计将于10月下旬举办2025Q3业绩会、11月6日举办2025年股东大会，Optimus V3发布在即。1）客户维度：重视特斯拉确定性主线。Optimus V3将 于2025Q4发布，目标于年内生产数百台V3原型机，Optimus产量提升速度将超过特斯拉任何其他产品，5年内能够 ...

► 引言： 过去70余年，本田摩托一步步构建起技术、产品、制造、品牌的"四重护城河"，在技术突破与产品创新的连续演进中，不仅改写了全球摩托车产业格局，也为后 来者提供了极具可操作性的战略范式。作为全球销量第一的摩托车品牌， 本田摩托的成功，是工业逻辑、市场节奏与文化适应力深度融合的产物，观察其崛起过程，是理解 摩企全球化路径的一个重要切口。 ► Honda Motor全球征途技术沉淀、产品布局与市场韧性共振。 本田凭借70+年的技术积累与持续创新，长期保持全球市占率第一，2024年销量为1,881.9万辆，占全球市场 逾30%；2024财年摩托车业务营业利润12,125亿日元，毛利率21.5%。在技术维度，本田摩托以四冲程发动机、DCT双离合等核心技术引领行业，并率先布局氢能源与电动化 平台，推动成本与性能同步优化。 ► 产品维度：经典铸就传奇本田摩托如何定义工业标杆？ 自成立以来，本田摩托始终站在全球摩托车技术与市场演进的前沿，通过热门车型实现多次增长。Super Cub系列 凭借低油耗与高耐用性，10年内带动公司全球销量翻倍；Gold Wing系列切入大排量长途巡航市场，提升高端产品利润率；CBR系列开创 ...

Group 1 - The company plans to acquire 60% of Kobotda Intelligent Technology for a cash consideration of 345 million yuan, increasing its stake to 80% [2][3] - Kobotda specializes in high-performance automotive intelligent central computing platforms and related domain controllers, with total assets of 779 million yuan and a net asset of 75 million yuan as of July 31, 2025 [3] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's technology, product offerings, and customer base, with a projected cumulative net profit of no less than 630 million yuan from Kobotda between August 2025 and 2030 [3] Group 2 - The company is a rare domestic automotive electronics supplier with strong software and hardware capabilities, focusing on electric control systems and ECU [4] - The shift towards centralized electronic architecture in vehicles is expected to accelerate the development of domain controller businesses, with the company already securing contracts for body and chassis domain controllers [4] - The company is also establishing its first overseas factory in Japan to gain international operational experience and accelerate global expansion [4] Group 3 - The company has successfully established a market presence with major domestic and international electric vehicle manufacturers, including Volkswagen, BYD, Tesla, and others [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.87 billion yuan, 9.86 billion yuan, and 12.20 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.05 billion yuan, 1.34 billion yuan, and 1.71 billion yuan respectively [5][6] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating, with expected PE ratios decreasing from 29 in 2024 to 13 in 2027 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive sector is experiencing growth driven by new policies and increasing demand for electric vehicles, with a focus on intelligent and globalized development of domestic brands [4][12][15]. Group 1: Weekly Data - In the week of August 25-31, 2025, passenger car sales reached 523,000 units, up 4.2% year-on-year and 9.5% month-on-month; new energy vehicle sales were 290,000 units, up 13.9% year-on-year and 8.1% month-on-month; new energy penetration rate was 55.3%, down 0.7 percentage points month-on-month [2][47]. - The automotive sector in A-shares rose by 1.0% from September 1 to September 5, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 0.6% [3][30]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Geely Automobile, Xiaopeng Motors, Li Auto, BYD, Xiaomi Group, Berteli, Top Group, Xinquan Co., Hu Guang Co., and Chuncheng Power [4][7][15]. - In the parts sector, focus on intelligent driving companies such as Berteli, Horizon Robotics, and Kobot; for new forces in the industry chain, recommend H-chain companies like Xingyu Co. and Hu Guang Co. [7][17]. Group 3: New Models and Orders - New model orders are performing well, with weekly sales for August showing a positive trend; Geely's merger with Zeekr received strong shareholder approval, marking a significant step in the "One Geely" strategy [6][13]. - The new Aion M7 model has started pre-orders, with over 150,000 orders in 24 hours, indicating strong market interest [6][13]. Group 4: Policy Impact - The continuation of the vehicle replacement policy is expected to stimulate demand; the new policy includes subsidies for scrapping older vehicles, which is anticipated to stabilize demand for 2025 [14][39]. - The expansion of the subsidy range to include vehicles meeting the National IV emission standards is expected to further boost the market [39][41]. Group 5: Motorcycle and Heavy Truck Market - The motorcycle market is expanding rapidly, with significant growth in large-displacement motorcycles; sales in July 2025 for motorcycles over 250cc reached 88,000 units, up 21.7% year-on-year [21][23]. - Heavy truck sales in July 2025 were 85,000 units, up 45.6% year-on-year, supported by policies encouraging the replacement of older vehicles [24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable revenue growth in H1 2025, but faced a decline in net profit due to increased marketing expenses and investments in new channels and technologies [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - Total revenue for H1 2025 was 92.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%. Q2 2025 revenue was 52.32 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.7% and 30.7% respectively [2][3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was 6.34 billion yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year. Q2 2025 net profit was 4.59 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 19.1% and 161.9% respectively [2][3]. - The non-recurring net profit for H1 2025 was 3.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.4% year-on-year, with Q2 2025 at 2.11 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 41.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 43.8% [2][3]. Sales Performance - Total vehicle deliveries in H1 2025 reached 570,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. Q2 2025 deliveries were 313,000 units, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.1% and 21.9% respectively [4]. - Specific brand performance in Q2 2025 included Haval with 177,000 units (up 24.7% year-on-year), Wey with 21,000 units (up 106.3% year-on-year), and Tank with 62,000 units (down 7.8% year-on-year) [4]. Cost and Expense Management - In Q2 2025, the expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 5.2%, 1.8%, 4.5%, and -1.3% respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.9 pts, -0.2 pts, -0.1 pts, and -0.7 pts [3]. Global Expansion - In Q2 2025, overseas sales were 107,000 units, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.5%. The new factory in Brazil commenced production in August, aiming for an annual capacity of 50,000 units [5]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 240.58 billion yuan, 291.09 billion yuan, and 334.75 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 13.25 billion yuan, 20.18 billion yuan, and 23.30 billion yuan [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong sales performance in August 2025, with significant year-on-year and month-on-month growth across various brands, indicating a positive trend in the automotive market [2][4][5][6]. Sales Performance Overview - In August 2025, the company achieved wholesale sales of 116,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.3% and a month-on-month increase of 10.7%. Cumulatively, from January to August, total wholesale sales reached 790,000 vehicles, up 5.9% year-on-year [2]. - Breakdown of sales by brand in August: - Haval: 69,000 vehicles, +22.7% YoY, +22.6% MoM; cumulative sales of 447,000 vehicles, +9.2% YoY [2]. - Wey: 8,000 vehicles, +167.5% YoY, -20.1% MoM; cumulative sales of 53,000 vehicles, +105.1% YoY [2]. - Pickup: 13,000 vehicles, -2.9% YoY, -3.3% MoM; cumulative sales of 123,000 vehicles, +4.8% YoY [2]. - Ora: 5,000 vehicles, +1.4% YoY, +21.5% MoM; cumulative sales of 23,000 vehicles, -43.8% YoY [2]. - Tank: 20,000 vehicles, +22.5% YoY, 0.0% MoM; cumulative sales of 144,000 vehicles, -4.9% YoY [2]. Brand Analysis - Tank brand showed impressive sales with 20,000 units sold in August, maintaining a strong year-on-year growth of 22.5%. The launch of the new Tank 500Hi4-T/Hi4-Z on August 27 was well-received, with over 12,000 pre-orders within two hours [4]. - Haval brand continued to perform well with 69,000 units sold in August, supported by the pre-sale of the Haval Big Dog PLUS at the Chengdu Auto Show, which garnered over 10,000 pre-orders within 24 hours [5]. International Sales Growth - The company's overseas wholesale sales reached 45,000 vehicles in August, marking an increase of 11.6% YoY and 9.9% MoM. Cumulatively, from January to August, overseas sales totaled 284,000 vehicles, up 1.3% YoY [6]. - The establishment of a factory in Brazil in August is expected to enhance the company's presence in the Latin American market, contributing to steady growth in international sales [6]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 240.58 billion, 291.09 billion, and 334.75 billion yuan respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 13.25 billion, 20.18 billion, and 23.30 billion yuan [7]. - The expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17, 11, and 10 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the competition in the automotive market is shifting from low-cost vehicles to the mid-to-high-end market, where brand building will be crucial for future growth [2][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The main source of market share growth for domestic car manufacturers from 2024 to 2025 will be in the A-class car market priced between 50,000 to 150,000 CNY, where domestic brands currently hold a 70.6% market share as of Q2 2025 [12][16]. - The mid-to-high-end market (150,000 to 250,000 CNY) is expected to see significant competition, with current domestic market share below 50%, indicating substantial room for growth [5][18]. - The luxury market (250,000 CNY and above) is dominated by brands like Li Auto, Xiaomi, and Huawei, which are leveraging electric and intelligent vehicle technologies to establish themselves as leaders in this segment [5][13]. Group 2: Profitability and Brand Loyalty - The profitability in the mid-to-high-end market is strong, with the 150,000 to 250,000 CNY segment projected to generate annual revenues of approximately 1.1 to 1.2 trillion CNY and net profits of around 550 to 600 billion CNY [3][12]. - Brand loyalty is becoming increasingly important in the 150,000 to 250,000 CNY market, where consumers are less price-sensitive and more focused on overall product quality and brand reputation [18][19]. - The luxury market is characterized by high brand barriers, making it difficult for new entrants to compete solely on price, thus emphasizing the need for established brand identities [4][5]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape in the 250,000 CNY and above luxury market is becoming clearer, with domestic brands like Li Auto and Huawei gaining significant market shares, while traditional luxury brands are experiencing a decline [21][22]. - The 150,000 to 250,000 CNY market is fragmented, lacking a clear leader, which presents opportunities for traditional automakers and emerging players to capture market share through innovation and design [5][14]. - The article suggests that traditional automakers and second-tier new forces should focus on the mid-range market (150,000 to 250,000 CNY) as it offers a better opportunity for growth compared to the high-end luxury segment [14][18].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in August, indicating a recovery in terminal demand and a steady expansion in overseas markets [2][3][4]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In August, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles reached 374,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% and a month-on-month increase of 8.5% [2]. - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 372,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2% and a month-on-month increase of 8.9% [3]. - Cumulative wholesale sales from January to August reached 2.826 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.9% [3]. Group 2: Export Growth - In August, the export volume of new energy vehicles was 81,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 156.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [4]. - Cumulative exports from January to August totaled 626,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 136.3% [4]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with new factories planned in regions such as Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia [4]. Group 3: Product and Brand Development - The company is focusing on high-end product development, with 2025 expected to be a significant year for high-end products [5]. - The Tengshi brand has undergone management adjustments to enhance brand system construction and overcome high-end bottlenecks [5]. - The Fangchengbao model, a large SUV, is set to launch in Q4 2025, targeting family users with practical and technological needs [5]. Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 990.81 billion, 1,188.97 billion, and 1,397.04 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 45.40 billion, 60.35 billion, and 70.42 billion yuan for the same period [6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 4.98, 6.62, and 7.72 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22, 17, and 14 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the steady growth of the new energy vehicle market in August 2025, with significant delivery increases for various companies, while also noting the competitive landscape and technological advancements in the industry [3][4][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - In August 2025, the retail market for narrow passenger vehicles is estimated at approximately 1.94 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.0% and a month-on-month increase of 6.2% [3]. - The new energy vehicle retail sales are projected to reach 1.1 million units, with a penetration rate of about 56.7% [3]. - Six sample new force car companies (excluding Xiaomi) delivered a total of 199,279 vehicles in August, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.0% and a month-on-month increase of 5.9% [3]. Group 2: Company Deliveries - **Leap Motor**: Delivered 57,066 vehicles in August, up 88.3% year-on-year and 13.8% month-on-month, driven by strong sales of the B10 and C10 models [4]. - **Xpeng**: Reported deliveries of 37,709 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 168.7% and a month-on-month increase of 2.7% [5]. - **NIO**: Achieved 31,305 vehicle deliveries, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55.2% and a month-on-month increase of 15.9% [6]. - **Li Auto**: Delivered 28,529 vehicles, but experienced a year-on-year decline of 40.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.2% [6]. - **Aion**: Reported 27,044 deliveries, down 23.5% year-on-year but up 1.8% month-on-month [6]. - **Zeekr**: Delivered 17,626 vehicles, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 2.2% but a month-on-month increase of 3.8% [7]. - **Xiaomi**: Exceeded 30,000 vehicle deliveries in August, with strong demand for its new SUV model [7]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The article discusses the acceleration of end-to-end technology applications in autonomous driving, marking the beginning of a new era in intelligent driving [8][10]. - Companies like Xpeng and those associated with Huawei have been leading the iteration and promotion of intelligent driving technologies since 2024 [10]. - The advancements in intelligent driving technology are expected to lower hardware barriers and expand applications in the mainstream market, particularly for vehicles priced under 200,000 yuan [10]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests a focus on companies with strong autonomous driving capabilities and those that are well-positioned in the new energy vehicle supply chain, including Geely, Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Xiaomi [11][18]. - It emphasizes the importance of intelligent driving as a competitive factor and the potential for domestic suppliers to gain market share through cost-effective and responsive solutions [11].