聊聊主流红利指数的“含银量”

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown remarkable performance over the past two years, with significant stock price increases, but there are concerns about the divergence between stock prices and fundamental performance [2][5][6]. Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The stock performance of major banks, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), has seen increases of +17.66%, +52.30%, and +5.71% over the past three years [2]. - The China Securities Banking Total Return Index has been reaching historical highs, indicating strong overall sector performance [2][4]. Group 2: Dividend Indices and Bank Weighting - Traditional dividend indices are strongly correlated with the banking sector, with the "low volatility dividend" index having nearly half of its weight in the banking sector [5]. - The performance of city commercial banks has been better than that of state-owned and joint-stock banks, influencing the composition of various dividend indices [5]. Group 3: Concerns Regarding Banking Sector Fundamentals - Despite a 42.90% increase in the China Securities Banking Total Return Index over the past year, banks have shown stagnation in revenue and net profit growth, alongside declining ROE and increasing overdue rates [5][6]. - The ROE for major banks is around 10%, and maintaining this level requires a profit growth rate of 6.80%, which is not being met according to the latest quarterly reports [6]. - The overall dividend yield for the banking sector has decreased significantly, with major banks now yielding less than 4.50%, down from nearly 7% two years ago [7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Market sentiment towards the banking sector has shifted, with reduced concerns about bad debts and profit growth, leading to a lack of negative commentary in discussions about bank stocks [8]. - The current price-to-book ratio for the China Securities Banking Index is 0.67, indicating that while the sector is not overvalued, the overall investment attractiveness is being questioned [8]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The current market is characterized by "medium-low valuation" and "low interest rates," suggesting a potential asset allocation of 65% equities and 35% bonds for defensive investors [11]. - The focus for long-term investment remains on dividend-paying stocks and low-cost dividend ETFs, with a strategy to reinvest dividends and new funds into short-term bonds [11].