美元、日元、人民币的未来走势如何？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strengthening of East Asian currencies, particularly the New Taiwan Dollar, against the backdrop of optimistic expectations regarding tariff negotiations and the weakening of the US dollar [1][2][5]. Currency Performance - During the May 1 holiday, East Asian currencies, including the New Taiwan Dollar, Hong Kong Dollar, and South Korean Won, collectively appreciated, with the New Taiwan Dollar rising over 9% in two trading days [1]. - The offshore Renminbi also showed strength, surpassing the 7.19 mark for the first time since November of the previous year [2]. Economic Context - The strengthening of East Asian currencies is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar and the trade surpluses maintained by economies like South Korea and Taiwan, which have accumulated significant dollar assets [2][5]. - The US dollar index has been on a downward trend since the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, with the index falling below 100 due to concerns over "stagflation" risks and uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies [2][3]. US Economic Indicators - The US GDP for the first quarter declined at an annualized rate of -0.3%, which was below market expectations, indicating economic slowdown [2][4]. - Consumer confidence in the US has also dropped, with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index falling to 52.2, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline [3]. Investment Trends - Private investment in the US showed a significant increase, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.9%, contributing 3.6 percentage points to GDP, largely driven by inventory accumulation [3][4]. - However, as the "reciprocal tariffs" take effect, the support from inventory for GDP is expected to weaken in the second quarter [3]. Trade Deficits - The US trade deficit is projected to reach $1.2 trillion in 2024, with significant deficits against East Asian countries, particularly China, Mexico, and Vietnam [6]. - Taiwan's trade surplus is bolstered by its competitive advantages in the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors, which constitute a large portion of its exports [10]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the US economy is likely to slow down but not enter a recession, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain a cautious approach regarding interest rate changes [4][5]. - The long-term outlook for the Renminbi remains positive due to strong domestic policies and economic resilience, while the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend amid favorable conditions [16].