申万宏观·周度研究成果（5.10-5.16）

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving landscape of trade conflicts, particularly focusing on tariffs and their implications for the U.S. and China, as well as the potential for future trade negotiations [7][10][29]. Group 1: Hot Topics - Financial pressure may be a key factor influencing the Federal Reserve's shift towards a more dovish stance, particularly in the context of ongoing tariff pressures [5][35]. - The article explores the "endgame" of trade conflicts, suggesting that future negotiations may involve splitting issues to facilitate partial agreements, which could be more realistic [29][37]. - The article highlights the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing, identifying nine industries with strong dependencies that are difficult to replace [10][12]. Group 2: Policy Insights - The article outlines recent monetary policy adjustments, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, which is expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [26]. - It discusses the implications of April's inflation data, noting that while tariffs have impacted the Producer Price Index (PPI), improved consumer demand has supported the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) [18][17]. - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, along with enhancing financial support for private and technology-driven enterprises [25][26]. Group 3: Trade Agreements - The recent economic prosperity agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. is analyzed, with a focus on the incremental information it provides regarding future trade negotiations [7][19]. - The article suggests that the core interests in trade negotiations may be challenging to reconcile, indicating potential conflicts in future discussions [29][37]. - It also notes that the easing of tariff tensions may validate the notion of China's manufacturing being difficult to replace, with specific industries highlighted for their resilience [10][12].