新旧结构“转换期”？——4月经济数据点评

Core Viewpoints - The economy is transitioning from a phase of "old forces" declining to "new forces" gaining momentum, indicating a structural shift in economic dynamics [2][4][41] Consumption - In April, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales decreased to 5.1%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a slowdown in retail sales of goods above a certain threshold [10][64] - The consumption of essential goods remains stable, with food and oil products showing a growth of 14.0% year-on-year [2][10] - The slowdown in the "old-for-new" policy has negatively impacted the sales of automobiles and communication equipment, while home appliances continue to perform well [2][10] Investment - Fixed asset investment showed weakness in April, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.0%, and a month-on-month decline of 0.8 percentage points to 3.6% [2][16] - The decline in investment is attributed to the nearing end of the equipment renewal cycle, affecting manufacturing and public utility investments [2][16] - Service sector investment remains resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in April, particularly in cultural and entertainment sectors [3][23] Real Estate - The supply issues in the real estate sector are improving, but the release of pent-up demand is entering a "decline phase" [3][26] - In April, real estate investment fell by 11.3% year-on-year, reflecting a decrease in existing projects [3][26] - The construction completion rate has significantly dropped, with a year-on-year decline of 25.8% in April, leading to a stabilization in housing prices [3][26] Industrial Production - Industrial production showed a decline, with the industrial added value year-on-year growth at 6.1%, down 1.6 percentage points from March [5][36] - Manufacturing production also experienced a marginal decline, with significant drops in sectors related to real estate and consumer goods [36][42] Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% in April, indicating improved employment conditions for both migrant and local populations [71]