国泰海通证券研究·2025-05-19 14:20Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the A-share market is likely to maintain a range-bound fluctuation in the upcoming week, influenced by historical trends and current market indicators [1][2]. - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was reported at 2.63, indicating that current market liquidity is 2.63 times higher than the average level over the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF decreased to 1.03, reflecting a reduced level of caution among investors regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. Group 2 - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and the Wind All A Index were 0.89% and 1.45%, respectively, indicating increased trading activity compared to historical levels [2]. - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated last week, with onshore and offshore rates increasing by 0.59% and 0.42%, respectively [2]. - In April, new RMB loans amounted to 280 billion, significantly lower than the consensus expectation of 764.44 billion and the previous value of 3.64 trillion [2]. - The M2 money supply grew by 8% year-on-year, surpassing the consensus expectation of 7.54% and the previous value of 7% [2]. Group 3 - Historical data shows that the probability of major A-share indices rising in the latter half of May is relatively low, with the SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index having average increases of -0.1%, -0.02%, and 1.71%, respectively [2]. - The Wind All A Index recently broke through the SAR reversal indicator on April 21, indicating a potential upward trend [2]. - The current market score based on the moving average strength index is 209, placing it in the 82.9 percentile since 2021 [2]. Group 4 - The A-share market experienced a recovery last week, with the SSE 50 Index rising by 1.22%, the CSI 300 Index by 1.12%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.38% [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 19.0 times, which is at the 51.2 percentile since 2005 [3]. - The factor crowding metrics indicate a stable environment, with small-cap factor crowding at 0.91 and low valuation factor crowding at 0.53 [3].