五问“大而美法案”

Core Viewpoint - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" aims to achieve multiple objectives including tax reform, healthcare cuts, immigration enforcement, and defense enhancement, with significant implications for the economy and fiscal policy [2][4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. What is the "One Big Beautiful Bill"? - The bill, introduced on May 12, 2025, encompasses six main components: 1. Tax Reform: Permanently extends the 2017 tax reform, eliminates tips and overtime taxes, raises the standard deduction to $32,000, and expands the child tax credit to $2,500. 2. Healthcare Reform: Cuts Medicaid by $800 billion and introduces work requirements and eligibility reviews, potentially affecting 7.6 million insured individuals. 3. Immigration Policy: Allocates $46.5 billion for border wall construction and adds 18,000 enforcement personnel, aiming to deport 1 million illegal immigrants annually. 4. Defense Budget: Increases defense spending by $150 billion, focusing on missile defense and shipbuilding. 5. Energy Policy: Expands oil and gas extraction, reduces green energy subsidies, and sells public land to increase revenue. 6. Education and Welfare: Reforms student loans and cuts food stamp benefits [4][12][14]. 2. Economic Impact of the Bill - According to the Tax Foundation, the bill could result in approximately $3.3 trillion in tax cuts, an increase of about $150 billion in defense spending, and a reduction of $1.13 trillion in Medicaid and student loan expenditures. This is expected to lead to a long-term GDP growth of 0.6% and an increase in the deficit by $3.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034 [5][14][15]. 3. Current Progress of the Bill - As of May 18, 2025, the bill is still under review in the House committee and has not yet reached a full House vote or Senate consideration. It faced internal divisions within the Republican Party, with a recent vote resulting in a 16-21 rejection in the House Budget Committee. The House Speaker plans to push for passage before Memorial Day, but disputes over Medicaid cuts and deficit concerns create uncertainty [6][16][17]. 4. Key Timeframes for the Bill - Important upcoming dates include: 1. May 18, 2025: The Budget Committee will reconvene to attempt to pass the bill. 2. End of May 2025: The House aims to pass the bill before Memorial Day; failure may lead to delays or splitting the bill. 3. Mid-June 2025: If not passed by the end of May, the House may reschedule a full vote or consider splitting the bill. 4. July 4, 2025: The ultimate goal is to pass the bill by Independence Day, reflecting its political significance [7][18][19]. 5. Perspectives from Foreign Institutions - Foreign institutions express cautious optimism about the bill, albeit with significant uncertainties. UBS anticipates the bill may pass by August or September, favoring the mid-section of the yield curve. JPMorgan Chase believes the proposed measures could offset about two-thirds of the negative impacts from tariffs, with a focus on financial stocks as a key investment area [8][20][21].