WEI指数维持在5%以上——每周经济观察第20期

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed economic outlook, with some sectors showing improvement while others are experiencing declines, particularly in consumer retail and trade with the US. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has weakened but remains above 5%, recorded at 5.16% as of May 11, down from 7.73% on May 4, driven mainly by infrastructure and passenger vehicle consumption [3][5][6]. - The average asphalt plant operating rate increased to 34.4% in the second week of May from 28.8% in the first week, indicating a recovery in infrastructure activity [2][14]. - The average land premium rate across 100 cities has decreased to 7.9% from 9.63% in April, reflecting a cooling in the real estate market [9]. Group 2: Consumer Demand - Retail sales growth for passenger vehicles has slowed, with a growth rate of 11% as of May 11, down from 14.5% in April [8]. - The sales area of commercial residential properties in 67 cities decreased by 10% year-on-year as of May 16, indicating weak demand in the housing market [8]. - The average daily passenger volume for subways remained stable, with a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year [8]. Group 3: Trade and External Demand - Direct trade between China and the US has continued to decline, with container ship numbers and capacity from China to the US dropping by 34.4% year-on-year as of May 17 [20][22]. - There has been a rebound in the number of ships docking at major ASEAN ports, increasing by 0.8% week-on-week as of May 15, suggesting potential for re-export opportunities [22]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - Gold prices have significantly dropped, closing at $3191.8 per ounce, a decrease of 4% [4][32]. - Domestic commodity prices have shown mixed trends, with the BPI index rising by 1.1% and the CRB index increasing by 0.3% [32][35]. Group 5: Debt and Interest Rates - New local government bond issuance plans have been disclosed, with a total of 4159 billion yuan in special bonds planned for 2025 [36]. - Interest rates have seen a slight increase, with DR001 at 1.6313% and DR007 at 1.6374%, reflecting a tightening in liquidity conditions [39].