【光大研究每日速递】20250520

Core Viewpoint - The core driver for the formation of a bull market is the recovery of the fundamentals, which is often amplified by liquidity easing and industrial trends. A comprehensive improvement in fundamentals typically leads to a bull market, while structural improvements in fundamentals, when combined with liquidity easing and industrial trends, can also foster a bull market. The future outlook suggests a gradual and moderate recovery in fundamentals, with macro and micro liquidity resonance and industrial upgrades expected to drive market growth [4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market has continued to show a fluctuating performance, with major broad-based indices experiencing a contraction in trading volume. As of last Friday (May 16, 2025), the timing indicators for major indices maintain a cautious outlook due to reduced trading volume. The ETF funds have seen a net outflow, indicating a continued profit-taking state in the market. The short-term market is showing reversal characteristics, with momentum and reversal effects switching rapidly over the past three weeks. Under the backdrop of continued liquidity easing, small-cap stocks are expected to remain dominant [5]. Group 2: Steel Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions" on February 8, 2025, establishing a two-tier evaluation for steel enterprises. This aligns with the broader policy goal of the National Development and Reform Commission to better adapt supply-side changes to demand. It is anticipated that the profitability of the steel sector may recover to historical average levels, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio of steel stocks may also see a corresponding recovery [6]. Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Updates - Tungsten prices have reached a nearly 10-month high, while uranium prices have increased for the first time in six months. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has risen for three consecutive weeks, with attention on the demand situation in 2025. Lithium prices have fallen below 80,000 yuan per ton, with potential for accelerated capacity clearance. The Bisie tin mine has ceased operations, leading to an optimistic outlook for tin prices [7]. Group 4: Copper Market Overview - Recent trade conflicts have eased, but the negative impacts of tariffs and trade disputes on the economy have yet to manifest, continuing to suppress copper price increases. Domestic electrolytic copper inventories have seen a low-level increase, possibly due to previous overstocking by domestic and foreign enterprises. Copper prices are expected to gradually rise with the introduction of domestic stimulus policies and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [8]. Group 5: Renewable Energy Policy Developments - Shandong and Guangdong provinces have introduced implementation details for Document No. 136, which has garnered ongoing attention from the capital market regarding policy developments in more provinces. The core of the policy is to reflect electricity supply and demand through market-based pricing, thereby stabilizing the financing of renewable energy projects. The Shandong details indicate that the pricing for incremental projects will depend on current spot prices, while the Guangdong details stabilize expectations for new renewable energy installations, particularly favoring offshore wind projects [9]. Group 6: Medical Robotics Advancements - The commercialization process for exoskeleton robots in the medical rehabilitation field is expected to accelerate. These robots are primarily applied in three scenarios: spinal cord injury recovery, stroke rehabilitation, and aging assistance. The global market for exoskeleton robots is entering a period of rapid growth, and China's "14th Five-Year Plan" has included exoskeletons as a key development area for high-end medical equipment. Several regions have included certain rehabilitation exoskeletons in their insurance reimbursement scope, indicating a promising outlook for commercialization in this sector [9].