周一，开盘必读！

Macro Overview - Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but market expectations for a rate cut have actually decreased [1][5] - The recent announcement of tariff reductions between the US and China has exceeded market expectations, leading to a more optimistic economic outlook [2][4] - The total tariff reduction is 30%, significantly lower than the anticipated 54% [3] Market Reactions - The likelihood of a US economic recession has decreased, resulting in a direct increase in the US stock market [4] - Wall Street traders have reduced their bets on a 75 basis point rate cut this year to approximately 55 basis points [6] - The expectation for the first rate cut has been pushed back to September [9] Debt Concerns - Despite the stock market's optimism, concerns remain in the bond market, particularly regarding the US debt situation [10] - As of Q1 this year, interest payments on federal government debt accounted for 15.55% of total regular expenditures [12] - Major spending categories such as Social Security, healthcare, and defense are difficult to cut, leaving interest payments as a primary area for potential savings [14] Market Dynamics - Current market conditions are characterized by a mix of institutional and "herd" trading, making it challenging for retail investors to profit [19] - The lack of significant market catalysts and the unclear upward momentum raise questions about future market direction [20] Economic Indicators - The US economy is showing signs of weakness, with soft data continuing to decline, although hard data remains resilient compared to previous pessimistic forecasts [21] - A decline in export trade or a slowdown in US consumer purchasing could trigger new stimulus policies [23] Tariff Negotiations - The recent tariff agreement is viewed as fragile, with historical precedents suggesting that negotiations can quickly unravel [24][26] - If Trump makes concessions on tariffs due to economic pressures, it could lead to positive market reactions [26] M&A Regulations - New regulations for mergers and acquisitions have been introduced, which could benefit brokerage firms involved in intermediary services [27] - Key changes include simplified review processes, extended payment terms for acquisition costs, and relaxed restrictions on financial metrics for acquiring unprofitable tech companies [27]