绝对收益的世界里，常识比叙事更金贵

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policy analysis in investment strategies, highlighting a shift in the investment landscape where understanding government intentions and economic adjustments is crucial for asset allocation [1][11]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Evolution - The investment culture in the public fund industry has historically focused on relative returns, but there is a growing need for absolute return strategies as the economic environment changes [4][5]. - The transition from a single asset focus to a multi-asset allocation approach is essential for managing risks and enhancing returns, particularly in the context of public funds [5][6]. - The Tianhong mixed asset team has developed a three-tier investment framework that includes asset allocation, industry configuration, and stock selection to achieve absolute returns [6][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Asset Characteristics - The team recognizes the volatility of the A-share market, which can lead to significant losses in a "fixed income plus" strategy if not managed properly [5][6]. - The focus on low volatility in stock-bond allocation and adherence to absolute return goals in stock positions are key components of their investment philosophy [6][7]. - The analysis of capital flows has become a critical factor in understanding market dynamics and making informed investment decisions, especially during periods of liquidity stress [8][12]. Group 3: Macro Trends and Consumer Behavior - The shift from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth in the Chinese economy is a significant trend that will influence market behavior and investment strategies [11][12]. - The Tianhong team emphasizes the need to focus on structural changes in the economy rather than relying solely on aggregate macro data, which can obscure underlying issues [12]. - The potential for domestic demand and the resilience of Chinese enterprises, despite challenges, are highlighted as important factors for future investment considerations [11][12]. Group 4: Team Dynamics and Investment Culture - The Tianhong mixed asset team fosters an environment of open communication and collaboration, allowing for diverse opinions and independent decision-making [13][14]. - The team values a culture of left-side investing, focusing on purchasing assets below their intrinsic value to ensure a margin of safety [12][13]. - The commitment to maintaining objectivity and rationality in investment decisions is seen as essential for navigating market volatility and achieving long-term success [14][16].