白银LOF在 2 月 2 日通过调整估值方法录得 31.5% 的跌幅后，京东金融以一种独特的自身卷入了这场漩涡当中。 由于京东事先为部分"极速赎回"的客户按 1 月 30 日晚的净值垫付了 80% 的赎回金额，白银LOF的夜间巨震使得京东制造了 2026 年中国基金圈非常魔幻的一 幕： 基民卖掉基金的钱还没捂热，就收到了一条" 补款提醒 "： 2 日晚间，白银 LOF 在调整了估值方法后， 2 日盘中在京东金融平台上申请了" 极速赎回 "的用户收到一条来自京东金融的提示："赎回确认金额小于实时到 账金额，需补款 XXX 元，请保持小金库余额充足，或进行汇款补款。" 此后，在 2 月 3 日下午 14 点左右，许多在京东金融上购买了白银 LOF 的投资者又收到了一条短信提示： 为保障您的资金安全、避免后续产生追款流程，白 银 LOF 极速赎回的到账比例已经从前一天净值的 80%下调为 60%。 | 产品名称: | 国投瑞银白银期货(LOF)C > | | --- | --- | | 赎回类型: | 极速顾回 | | 赎回份额: | 7263.04份 | | 赎回账户: | 活钱+ | | 交易时间: | 202 ...

过去一年，ETF 基金发展迅猛。 在 ETF 规模突破 6 万亿的背景下，基准化、标准化已是公募基金不可忽视的行业趋势。然而多年来，大成基金却深耕在传统主动权益基金的阵地，用扎实的 产业研究来追求绝对收益，常常先于市场抓住那些当时看起来不太性感的机会行情。 就像四季报，刘旭用一句话表达了产业看法： 本季度增持了资本周期偏低位置的化工公司，同时略微提高了制造业比重。 大成基金副总经理石国武认为， " 尽管带有 Smart Beta 特征的产品在全世界流行，但随着不同行业 Beta 差异的拉大， Beta 的选择也是投资能力的一部 分。 " 在他看来，主动权益基金的未来并非会简单地向基准靠拢，而是通过深度研究成为资本市场有效定价的核心力量。 无论工具如何进化，投资的本质始终是对价值的发现与定价。一直以来，相较把主动权益做成工具，大成基金有 自己的 坚持 —— 在严控风格的前提下，追 求极致的夏普比率。 大成基金凭借 " 投资技艺 " 的传承，沉淀出一批高夏普的主动产品。在近期斩获的 8 座金牛奖杯中，有 6 座与 " 长期回报 " 相关 ： 三座公司奖项中有长期回 报金牛奖，而细数 五个获奖产品 的基金经理，徐彦 ...

也正因如此，行情火热时一天有40万人加入这场套利。 1月30日前，国投瑞银白银LOF一年上涨263.13%，在全市场公募产品里涨幅排名第一。 作为境内唯一一只可投白银期货的基金，开年以来尽管密集发布了20次溢价风险提示，依然难以抑制充满动物精神的市场，疯狂的做多热情。白银LOF不断 被推至涨停，乃至打出61.6%的场内溢价。 互联网"羊毛党"们此后接踵而至，由此诞生了一场公募基金史上最疯狂的拼好饭行情。 但这一切，有个重要但被忘记的前提——银价没有剧烈波动。 如果你觉得每天上班如同上坟，只需摸鱼时间在证券账户场内申购100块白银LOF，两天后像股票一样卖出，50多块的场内溢价套利收益就会从天而降，让元 宝那些纳米级的红包相形见绌。若是动员全家六个钱包一起出动，找申购费一折、免五的券商，一顿开源节流，搞不好年夜饭能吃上新荣记去吃。 不出意外的话，意外总归是要来的，狂欢很快被白银的崩盘打断。 上周五白银现货狂泻26%，创下历史最大日内跌幅。周一，白银LOF 复盘场内跌停，盘后国投瑞银按照国际期货价格估值，场外净值开出-31.5%的跌幅，不 管追涨停的，还是薅羊毛的，这一夜都沉默了： 此举导致场内实际溢价率飙升至1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant cycle of growth driven by AI demand, leading to a resurgence in semiconductor equipment and materials, with a focus on capital expenditure and production capacity expansion [6][19][20]. Group 1: Semiconductor Market Dynamics - The semiconductor market faced a major crisis starting in 2021 due to pandemic-related disruptions, leading to a global chip shortage that affected various sectors, particularly automotive [6][7]. - The panic buying of chips created a closed-loop of high demand and low supply, resulting in extreme price inflation for certain components, such as automotive chips [8][11]. - In 2023, the global semiconductor market is projected to decline by 11% to $533 billion, with memory markets experiencing a nearly 40% contraction [11][12]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - Semiconductor capital expenditure surged by 35% in 2021 and an additional 15% in 2022, driven by capacity expansion plans from major players like TSMC and Samsung [11][12]. - In 2023, global semiconductor capital expenditure is expected to total $169 billion, reflecting a 7% decline, with memory sectors facing a 21% drop [12][13]. Group 3: AI and Semiconductor Demand - The demand for AI servers is significantly higher than traditional servers, with AI servers requiring 8 times the DRAM and 3 times the NAND capacity [13][14]. - The anticipated growth in AI applications is expected to lead to another chip shortage by the end of 2024, as supply struggles to keep pace with surging demand [14][15]. Group 4: Semiconductor Equipment Market - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow significantly, with Morgan Stanley raising its forecast for the global semiconductor capital equipment market growth rate to 16% by 2026, reaching $136 billion [19][20]. - The demand for semiconductor equipment is driven by the need for expanded production capacity in response to the AI-driven demand surge [16][19]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investing in semiconductor equipment and materials is crucial for capturing industry growth, with ETFs providing a practical approach for investors to gain exposure to leading companies in the sector [24][25]. - The semiconductor equipment ETF, E Fund (159558), has shown strong performance, reflecting the high demand and growth potential in the semiconductor equipment market [21][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the journey of a prominent figure in the Chinese investment advisory space, known as "Banking Screw," who initially set a ten-year investment return expectation of ten times but ultimately fell short of this goal, highlighting the challenges and evolution of the fund advisory industry in China [2][5][11]. Group 1: Performance and Expectations - The initial expectation of achieving a tenfold return over ten years was proven unrealistic, with the best-performing public fund achieving less than six times return in the same period [2]. - The actual cumulative return of Banking Screw's index portfolio was approximately 22.1%, translating to an annualized return of only 2.14% [2]. - The article emphasizes that achieving a 25% annualized return over ten years is a nearly impossible target for most investors [2]. Group 2: Evolution of Fund Advisory - Banking Screw transitioned from a successful self-media figure to a fund advisor, focusing on a demographic of office workers who prefer low-risk investments [6][7]. - The introduction of the "fund combination" feature in 2016 marked a significant innovation in the industry, allowing for a dynamic investment approach and establishing a revenue source through sales commissions [8][9]. - The lack of regulatory backing for this model led to challenges, culminating in a pause of the "Big V" combinations in November 2021 due to new regulations [11][10]. Group 3: Institutional Challenges - The institutional fund advisory business has struggled to keep pace with the growth of individual advisors, primarily due to a lack of trust mechanisms and a focus on short-term sales metrics [12][13]. - The article notes that the fund industry has been slow to adapt to the evolving landscape, with a significant reliance on transaction-based income rather than sustainable advisory services [13][17]. - Recent regulatory changes emphasize the importance of fund advisory services, pushing institutions to transition towards a model that prioritizes investor profitability over sales volume [15][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the year 2026 could mark a turning point for the fund advisory industry in China, moving towards a more professional, institutional, and inclusive model [17][19]. - It highlights the need for a significant increase in the number of qualified fund advisors to meet the growing demand for personalized investment services [18][19]. - The shift from a sales-driven to a service-oriented approach in the fund industry is seen as essential for long-term success and sustainability [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend of knowledge monetization in the financial industry, highlighting how prominent figures like Hong Hao and Li Bei are leveraging their expertise to generate significant income through paid courses and subscription services, despite the overall poor performance of the media sector [3][4]. Group 1: Knowledge Monetization - Hong Hao's knowledge platform has increased its annual fee to 1499 yuan, achieving a GMV of 12.586 million yuan within two months with 14,000 subscribers [3]. - Li Bei sold a course worth 12,888 yuan in just two days, generating 2.57 million yuan in revenue [3]. - The article notes that the media sector is generally considered a poor business, yet knowledge monetization through private domains and courses stands out as a lucrative opportunity [3]. Group 2: Leveraging Different Types of Capital - According to investor Naval, wealth freedom can be achieved through three types of leverage: labor leverage, capital leverage, and the most crucial, the ability to replicate products with zero marginal cost, such as media and code [5]. - Hong Hao and Li Bei effectively utilize all three types of leverage, with Li Bei already achieving wealth freedom through her business, while Hong Hao is still establishing his presence in the knowledge monetization space [5][6]. Group 3: Market Positioning and Strategy - Hong Hao's past experience as a chief strategist at major financial institutions adds credibility to his current endeavors, although his recent fund performance has been inconsistent [6][7]. - Both Hong Hao and Li Bei have successfully created strong personal brands, allowing them to attract a larger audience and monetize their insights more effectively than their peers [9][11]. - The article emphasizes that the macroeconomic topics they cover resonate with a broader audience, making their knowledge monetization efforts more appealing [9]. Group 4: Challenges and Market Dynamics - Fund managers are often cautious about transitioning to media roles due to concerns about losing professional credibility and focus [12]. - Despite skepticism about their actual investment performance, Hong Hao and Li Bei's ability to market themselves and their predictions has garnered significant attention and a loyal following [12][17]. - The article suggests that as traditional investment avenues become more challenging, financial professionals are increasingly turning to knowledge monetization as a viable alternative income source [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from an "active era" to a "passive era," with the A500 ETF battle symbolizing this shift. The competition among fund companies is intensifying as they vie for a long-term foothold in the market, especially with the upcoming introduction of options related to the A500 ETF [5][7][20]. Group 1: A500 ETF Competition - The A500 ETF saw a dramatic increase in total scale, rising by over 100 billion yuan in December 2025, despite a lack of significant retail investor activity [3]. - By the end of December 2025, the leading A500 ETF products included Huatai-PB with 494 billion yuan, followed by Nanfang Fund with 480 billion yuan, indicating a fierce competition among fund companies [4]. - The battle for A500 ETF dominance is critical for fund companies, as the winner will secure a long-term revenue stream, especially with the anticipated launch of related options in early 2026 [5][6]. Group 2: Fee Reform Impact - The fee reform initiated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to reduce management and custody fees, resulting in an annual benefit of approximately 140 billion yuan to investors [8][10]. - The average comprehensive fee rate for public funds decreased from 1.41% in 2022 to 1.29% by the end of 2023, with further reductions expected in 2024 [10]. - The sales fee reform, effective from January 1, 2026, is projected to provide an additional annual benefit of around 300 billion yuan to investors, further tightening the profit margins for fund companies [11][13]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The fee reductions have significantly compressed the profit margins for actively managed equity funds, leading to a decline in their attractiveness and a shift towards passive investment strategies like ETFs [14][18]. - The public fund industry is experiencing a shift in incentive structures, where fund managers are increasingly pressured to deliver excess returns, leading to a potential exodus of talent from active management roles [15][20]. - The competitive landscape is becoming increasingly polarized, with only a few fund companies likely to survive in the A500 ETF space, mirroring the market dynamics seen in the U.S. with the S&P 500 [18][19].

2025年行至岁末，又一年的波云诡谲即将落幕。 这是一个令人们对"历史新高"感到麻木的年份。 有色金属迎来了超级周期。黄金年内累计 50 多次刷新峰值，约等于每周都在让市场见证历史；白银的表现甚至超过黄金，在岁末上演疯狂的逼空，一年之内 价格翻了一倍还多；铜价也已经突破了每吨 12000 美元的关口，打破了有史以来的所有纪录。 美股市场在此起彼伏的泡沫质疑中一路狂奔，纳斯达克创新高，标普 500 创新高，英伟达成为人类历史上第一家总市值抵达过 5 万亿美元之上的公司，即便 此后回调，其市值也比日本过去一年的国内生产总值更加庞大。 不是日本不努力。 2025 年伊始，日本就将基准利率提高到约 0.5%，年末又再度加息至 0.75%，利率水平创下 1995 年以来的新高。日经指数彻底走出"失落三十年"的阴霾，在 2025 年 10 月突破 50000 点，也创下了新高。 沪指同样令人们振奋，就是怪 6124 实在是个太高的海拔，盲目上升容易导致急性脑/肺水肿，所以没能在2025年也创下新高的喜悦。但不要苛求它，它也开 始努力在 4000 点附近做高度适应了。 国内公募基金行业也创下一个新高。任桀管理的永赢科技智选 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 is characterized by a technological breakthrough led by DeepSeek and a surge in companies like Moer Thread and Muxi Technology, highlighting technology as the main theme of the market despite ongoing debates about an "AI bubble" [2] Group 1: Investment Strategies - The "barbell strategy" is emphasized as a tactical allocation approach, balancing between low-volatility assets for defense and high-growth tech stocks for offense [3][6] - The barbell strategy involves placing the majority of funds in low-risk, low-volatility assets while allocating a smaller portion to high-risk, high-reward assets to achieve asymmetric returns [3][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In the context of the A-share market, the "Chinese-style barbell" has evolved to focus on tech stocks for growth and dividend assets for stable income, with a notable increase in interest in dividend assets since the second half of the year [6][7] - The E Fund Dividend ETF has seen over 3 billion in net inflows in the fourth quarter, with its asset size surpassing 11.6 billion as of December 19, 2025 [6][7] Group 3: Cash Flow and Stability - Dividend assets are viewed as "quasi-bond assets" due to their stable cash flow and high dividend yields, which provide a strong income capability compared to money market funds [7][13] - The dividend index tracked by the E Fund Dividend ETF has a dividend yield close to 5.2%, indicating a robust income generation potential [7] Group 4: Risk and Return - The contrasting nature of tech stocks and dividend assets creates a natural barbell structure, where tech provides growth potential while dividends offer resilience against market volatility [8][10] - The financial characteristics of tech stocks often involve high capital expenditures and negative free cash flow, while dividend-paying companies typically have stable cash flows and established market positions [11][13] Group 5: Market Behavior - The phenomenon of "volatility decay" illustrates that lower volatility can lead to superior long-term returns, as high volatility can erode capital significantly [14][15] - In a market downturn, dividend assets tend to maintain their value better, as rising dividend yields attract long-term investors, thus providing a cushion against price declines [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent news regarding the "removal of quantitative trading servers from exchanges," highlighting concerns about trading fairness and the competitive advantages that high-frequency trading (HFT) firms have over retail investors [2][5]. Group 1: Trading Fairness and Speed - The core issue revolves around trading fairness, where retail investors face significant delays (20-200 milliseconds) compared to high-frequency traders who can optimize their order execution to 0.1-1 milliseconds by hosting servers at exchanges [3][8][11]. - The disparity in trading speed creates an uneven playing field, likening the situation to a theme park where some can skip lines while others wait for hours [3][12]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Costs - High-frequency trading firms invest heavily in infrastructure, such as purchasing VIP trading seats and deploying servers in exchange data centers, with costs ranging from 50,000 to 300,000 dollars annually for these services [10][19]. - The competition among brokers to provide faster trading solutions has intensified, with many focusing on attracting quantitative firms by enhancing their technological capabilities [15][16]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory efforts have been aimed at curbing the speed advantages of quantitative trading, with new rules implemented to protect retail investors [5][32]. - The ongoing discussions about server removal from exchanges raise questions about the future of trading speed and its impact on market dynamics [6][32]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Trends - The rise of quantitative trading has led to a significant increase in the number of quantitative hedge funds, with 55 firms managing over 10 billion dollars [15]. - The article notes that the competitive landscape is shifting, with brokers increasingly targeting quantitative traders rather than traditional retail investors [15][20]. Group 5: Perception of Low Latency - The term "low latency" has become a marketing focus for many firms, with a majority promoting their capabilities in this area, reflecting the competitive pressure within the industry [22][28]. - Low latency is defined as the ability to minimize delays in receiving market information and executing trades, which is crucial for capturing market opportunities [28][29]. Group 6: Impact on Retail Investors - Retail investors, lacking access to high-speed trading infrastructure, are at a disadvantage, which raises concerns about the overall fairness of the market [17][35]. - The article emphasizes that the majority of trading volume still comes from retail investors, highlighting the need for a balanced approach to technological advancements in trading [35][36].