新高的资本市场就如三伏天的午后一般，到处都充斥着躁热的气息：沉寂了许久的上海爷叔开始重出江湖；前证券分析师谭珺质问道"4000点是不是起点"； 中信证券更是紧跟市场，发文《当下，三类人最焦虑》，直戳踏空者的肺管子。 即便是基金行业的"夜壶"——主动权益，今年其实也在业绩上试图重新为自己正名。数据显示，截至2025年8月15日，年内万得偏股混合型基金指数年内涨幅 达到了20.48%，远超沪深300指数。 然而，在诸多公募基金公司中，真正在规模和声量上引起市场注意的主动权益团队，非永赢基金莫属。 仅2025年上半年，永赢基金主动权益的规模就增加了 244.76亿元，100%以上的增幅，断层式领先全行业。 尤其是永赢基金智选系列产品的热度更是居高不下。 根据Wind数据显示，截至2025年8月15日，永赢主动权益产品矩阵当中，智选系列均实现了年内规模正增长，合计增幅达到259.29亿元。这也就意味着，除 去智选系列外，其他主动权益产品的总规模实则略有下降。 业绩好是一个很显性的原因。 从1月至今，几乎每个月都能够从当月的热门题材中找到永赢的产品。套用短线选手最暴力的计算方法来看，如果每个月都买到永赢涨幅最高的主动权 ...

作为全球市场最耐造的指数，纳斯达克不负众望地甩掉了清明节前后的祭天行情，又走在了刷新高的道 路上，但MAG7之间的悲欢却并不相通。 截至2025年8月11日，美股七巨头的股价表现显著分化。英伟达、Meta和微软稳坐第一梯队 ，谷歌和亚 马逊蛰伏在水平面上下，苹果和特斯拉则以显著的跌幅吊在了车尾，甚至3.4万亿美元的苹果要和1万亿 美元的特斯拉加起来，才能追上英伟达的4.4万亿市 值。 究其原因，能拔估值的AI行情，特斯拉和苹果都不是数一数二的大玩家，但是压制盈利的关税大棒，两 家又 是供应链高度暴露的难兄难弟。 考虑到英伟达也很难置身于白宫的政策波动之外，一边要极尽赞美之词给足懂王情绪价值，一边还要真 金白银上缴在华收入的15%，但这些都没有对股价产生伤筋动骨的打击。 可见， 相比关税的长期拉锯， AI 的大蛋糕能分走多少，才是 美股 巨头面临的主要矛盾。 当西海岸的科技巨头们在AI加持下如沐春风，特斯拉和苹果却成为了两个例外。前者讲了近10年的AI故 事，估值常年高企，财报却难掩颓靡；而后者则几乎蹭不上AI的预期，活在纳指身处硅谷，却越来越像 一个价值股。 特斯拉：再苦一苦小股东 7月23日，懂车帝上线了一 ...

上周的腥风血雨，很多前两周赚钱的CTA产品，也没挨住波动跌了下去。 "竹节草"过后，杭州闷热的像个蒸笼，钱江新城CBD富春路两岸聚集的期现公司，刚刚经历了一场骤雨 狂风。 "反内卷"情绪如台风般席卷期货市场，多晶硅一个月涨了70%多，焦煤打出罕见的5连板，工业硅、玻 璃、碳酸锂等上半年被按在地上摩擦的品种纷纷暴涨，真实演绎了， 日本走出 通缩 需要30年，我们商 品市场只需要30天。 然而，7月25日大商所对焦煤期货限仓之后，焦煤直接跌停，跟风品种应声倒下，经过来回狂躁拉扯的 一周，除了多晶硅、焦煤，其他品种基本跌了回去。 这场商品急刹行情，无数交易者俯冲到挡风玻璃上，就连杭州的贸易巨头、期货资管也损失惨重。 7月25日那周，市场传出有杭州贸易商亏损十几亿，此后一批资管产品净值更新也噩耗频传，杭州主观 CTA的代表——钱塘永利、倍致、遂玖、中柏，遭遇了不同程度的亏损，旌安、孚盈部分产品亏损3个点 以上，润洲更有产品亏了6个点以上。 有头部代销人士告诉笔者，"杭州帮主要栽在了黑色、化工。按照那周的涨法，资管大部分都把仓位砍 了，跌3-5%都是正常的，不砍都奔着7-10%去了。但资管的亏损显然无法与某些大佬自营的 ...

2025年下半场刚开始一个月，行情就清晰地沿着"反内卷"一路突破3600点。A股市场的表达方式，永远那么简单直白——反内卷首先利好最内卷，结论就是 先炒光伏。 毕竟光伏也曾是资金扎堆过的重磅赛道，如今却因为产能过剩严重、低价竞争失控，成为本轮反内卷政策的核心整治对象。毕竟不管是行业亏损幅度，还是 产能出清力度，抑或全球供应链重构深度，光伏行业都显著超过了其他行业。 这种曾经做过市场明珠的"落难公主"，历来是不少做主观多头的天菜。困境反转作为一类经典策略，也是不少大佬赚到大钱的公开秘籍。 与此同时，产业端开始调整步伐。在中央定调"反内卷"之后，多家光伏主流企业开始测算自家完全成本，龙头联合挺价，以多晶硅为代表的光伏产业链产品 价格开始连续上涨，也让市场终于看到了光伏行业重回良性竞争的希望。 而经历过产业周期波动的投资者则在疯狂的行情下显得非常冷静： 供给收缩或许可以改善行业格局，需求增长才能真正带来有效利润。 而这份共识也并没有维持太久——君子协定终究敌不过大单诱惑。 12月初，中国电建高达51GW的有史以来最大规模光伏组件集采项目中，中标价格一举击穿红线下探至0.625-0.631元/W区间，而中标企业却并未 ...

一纸反内卷，燃起了新一轮的市场行情。商品市场走得令人瞠目结舌，股票市场也进入回稳向好的态势。 多类资产一反过去几年的态势，让投资者再次领会到单一资产波动的威力。 实际上，大多数人往往押不准一个资产的未来。抛弃追逐单一资产的思维惯性，用多资产配置来管理财富 才有望真正穿越周期。这正是专业机构应对周期波动更为有效的方式。 当单一资产波动加剧时，跨区域、跨资产的分散配置或是穿越风浪的可靠航船。 因为在资产配置的世界 里，重要的不是牛熊判断，而是有效分散 —— 不仅分散下跌的风险，也分散踏空的遗憾。 当我们把目光聚焦到一个穿越了 150 多年风风雨雨，既活过了经济萧条，也亲历了大滞胀，既体会过世界 大战，也享受过全球化的大型金融机构时，摩根资产管理所淬炼出的周期相处之道，就是把多资产投资作 为方法论。 能够穿越超长的周期，最终靠的是 尊重经济社会运行的规律，顺应时代浪潮发展的方向 。从缔造了摩根集 团起点的乔治 · 皮尔庞特 · 摩根开始，这种内在精神就印刻在了这家金融机构身上。 19 世纪末 20 世纪初，乔治 · 皮尔庞特 · 摩根主导了多家铁路公司的合并，随后又对钢铁行业进行重组整 顿。历史学家专门提出了一个词 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market is experiencing a retention crisis, with a significant number of newly issued ETFs facing declining share volumes, indicating challenges in maintaining investor interest and capital inflow [1][3][6]. Group 1: ETF Issuance and Performance - As of July 22, 2025, out of 164 ETFs issued in the first half of the year, 144 have seen a decrease in share volume, with 113 experiencing declines of over 50% [1]. - The performance of ETFs is heavily influenced by the initial funding structure, where many funds rely on informal networks for initial capital, leading to a loss of funds once the lock-up period ends [3][4]. - ETFs tied to trending sectors, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, have shown growth due to market performance, while those lacking clear industry characteristics have struggled [5][6]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Fund companies are attempting to create "flagship products" to establish a competitive edge, but this strategy is challenging due to the lack of a sustainable moat in the ETF market [7][8]. - The leading ETF, Huatai-PB's CSI 300 ETF, has seen its market share threatened by increasing competition, with significant narrowing of scale differences among top competitors [11][12]. - The ETF market's competitive nature means that single product advantages are often temporary, as the standardized nature of ETFs leads to intense competition and potential obsolescence [20]. Group 3: Strategic Approaches - Fund companies are focusing on differentiating their operations, particularly by enhancing institutional services and creating customized products to attract larger clients [22][23]. - The operational challenges faced by mid-sized fund companies include a lack of comprehensive product lines and internal coordination, which can hinder their ability to capitalize on market trends [24][26]. - The shift towards a platform-based competition in the ETF market emphasizes the need for fund companies to excel in all operational aspects, from research to marketing, to succeed [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising popularity and significance of ETFs in the Chinese capital market, highlighting their role as a key investment tool and the evolving landscape of fund management companies focusing on ETF products [1][5][60]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the 3600-point mark, igniting investor enthusiasm [1]. - A-share trading volume has consistently exceeded 1 trillion, reaching 1.5 trillion recently, indicating strong market activity [2]. - Investors are increasingly turning to index tracking as a convenient way to participate in market trends [3]. Group 2: ETF Growth and Demand - ETFs have become a benchmark for assessing the strength of fund management companies, with many top-ranked firms benefiting from ETF offerings [5][6]. - As of Q3 2024, 87.5% of individual investors expressed willingness to invest in index funds, reflecting a growing acceptance of ETFs [6]. - Globally, passive index funds account for over 60% of the market in the U.S., indicating a shift towards index-based investing [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The ETF industry is characterized by a significant head effect, with the top twelve companies managing over 80% of the total scale [14]. - As of June 30, 2025, the top five fund companies control over 50% of the ETF market, demonstrating the competitive nature of the sector [14][16]. - The article emphasizes that understanding the ETF's significance and creating effective investment tools for clients is crucial for fund companies [11][12]. Group 4: Case Study - Harvest Fund - Harvest Fund has been proactive in the ETF space since the launch of the CSI 300 Index in 2005, releasing the first ETF tracking this index [19][21]. - As of July 4, 2025, the Harvest CSI 300 ETF has reached a scale of 1710.7 billion, ranking fourth among all ETFs [22]. - The fund has consistently launched innovative ETFs, including those focused on sectors like technology and healthcare, positioning itself as a leader in the market [22][24]. Group 5: Investment Strategy and Innovation - Harvest Fund views ETFs as tools for simplifying investment strategies and capturing industry trends, rather than merely low-cost options [24][38]. - The fund has developed a range of ETFs targeting key industries, such as semiconductors and AI, to capitalize on emerging opportunities [30][31]. - The article highlights the importance of a deep understanding of market cycles and trends in developing successful ETF products [27][39]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The ETF market is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on meeting diverse investor needs and enhancing product offerings [40][44]. - Harvest Fund aims to create a comprehensive ecosystem around ETFs, integrating research, product development, and investor education [54][60]. - The ultimate goal is to provide accessible solutions for capturing economic growth and industry opportunities through ETFs [60].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment journey of Masayoshi Son, highlighting his significant financial losses and gains, and his unique approach to investing in technology and startups, particularly in the context of Japan's economic landscape and the global tech industry. Group 1: Masayoshi Son's Investment Philosophy - Masayoshi Son is characterized as a figure who oscillates between massive financial gains and losses, often taking bold risks that others might avoid [3][46]. - His investment strategy is marked by a willingness to invest heavily in emerging technologies and companies, such as Alibaba and ARM, demonstrating a belief in the potential of innovation [54][79]. - Son's approach contrasts with more conservative investors, as he embraces volatility and seeks opportunities in uncertain environments [6][66]. Group 2: Key Milestones in Son's Career - Son's career is punctuated by critical moments, including his early investments in Yahoo and the subsequent rise and fall of the dot-com bubble, which shaped his reputation as a high-risk investor [32][34]. - The acquisition of ARM and the investment in Nvidia are highlighted as significant moves that positioned SoftBank favorably in the tech landscape, especially in the context of AI [79][82]. - His role in bringing the iPhone to Japan is noted as a pivotal moment that helped stabilize SoftBank during the financial crisis, showcasing his ability to capitalize on emerging trends [56][61]. Group 3: Challenges and Setbacks - The article details Son's substantial losses, particularly from investments like WeWork, which have led to criticism and questions about his investment acumen [69][80]. - Despite setbacks, Son's resilience is emphasized, as he continues to pursue ambitious projects, such as the $500 billion Starlink initiative and investments in AI [8][90]. - The narrative also reflects on the broader challenges faced by Japan in the tech industry, particularly in AI talent acquisition, which Son identifies as a critical issue for future growth [91][92]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that Son's future endeavors, particularly in AI, will be crucial for both his personal legacy and Japan's position in the global tech landscape [90][93]. - The potential collaboration with OpenAI is presented as a strategic move to bolster Japan's AI capabilities, indicating Son's ongoing commitment to innovation [93][94]. - The competitive landscape in AI, particularly between the US and China, is highlighted as a significant factor that will influence Son's strategies moving forward [98][99].

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Xue's "Fixed Income +" fund has maintained a flexible and proactive investment style, successfully navigating market volatility and achieving positive returns through strategic asset allocation and risk management [1][20]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Zhang Xue reduced the equity allocation in her fund from 18.56% in Q4 2022 to 7.41% by the end of Q1 2023, while increasing bond holdings, which helped stabilize the fund's net value amidst market fluctuations [1]. - The emphasis on timing and asset allocation has been a significant source of excess returns for Zhang Xue, who prefers to avoid marginal bets and focuses on risk-reward ratios [2][20]. - Zhang Xue's investment approach includes a preference for growth stocks in the equity portion, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and TMT sectors, rather than traditional dividend stocks [3][20]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Adaptation - Zhang Xue's unique career path, including nearly seven years in banking, has provided her with a broad macroeconomic perspective, which she applies to her investment decisions [6]. - The current low-interest-rate environment has prompted Zhang Xue to seek products that balance risk and return, moving away from purely defensive strategies [19]. - In 2024, Zhang Xue noted that China's long-term bonds have entered a "no man's land," indicating a need for enhanced risk management in her portfolio [7]. Group 3: Research and Collaboration - Zhang Xue benefits from extensive research support from various teams within the company, including macro strategy and equity research, which enhances her investment decision-making process [13][16]. - The collaboration with research teams allows Zhang Xue to effectively navigate complex sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, where she has developed a strong understanding through continuous engagement with industry experts [15][17]. - Zhang Xue's proactive approach includes tracking asset performance over extended periods before making investment decisions, ensuring that her portfolio remains aligned with market dynamics [10]. Group 4: Performance and Philosophy - Zhang Xue's investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between risk and growth, believing that China still has significant growth potential beyond traditional dividend-paying stocks [20]. - Her funds have consistently achieved positive returns, with annualized volatility lower than that of similar funds, reflecting her effective risk management and strategic asset allocation [20][21]. - Zhang Xue likens her investment style to that of an off-road vehicle driver, aiming to provide clients with a smooth investment experience despite market challenges [21].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant role of technology in the recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market and the emergence of innovative financial products like the Sci-Tech Bond ETF, which provides investors with new opportunities in a low-interest-rate environment [2][5][28]. Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown remarkable performance this year, highlighted by the rapid listing of companies like CATL and the surge in Xiaomi's stock price due to strong orders [2]. - The atmosphere in the stock market has also positively influenced the bond market, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission advocating for the development of Sci-Tech bonds and related products [3][4]. Group 2: Introduction of Sci-Tech Bond ETF - The Sci-Tech Bond ETF has gained attention as an innovative financial tool, quickly approved and sold out, raising 30 billion in a single day [4]. - This ETF fills a gap in the market for technology-related bond funds and offers investors a way to benefit from technological advancements in a low-interest-rate environment [5][10]. Group 3: Evolution of the Bond Market - The bond market in China has shifted from a focus on local government financing and real estate to supporting technology innovation, leading to the emergence of the "Sci-Tech Board" in the bond market [7][9]. - The issuance of Sci-Tech bonds has expanded significantly, with a total issuance exceeding 1 trillion last year and a current outstanding scale of 1.13 trillion, reflecting a growing interest from private enterprises [11]. Group 4: Investment Performance and Risk Management - Investing in Sci-Tech bonds has provided returns that align with the performance of technology stocks while avoiding their volatility, with the AAA Sci-Tech bond index rising 14.35% since June 2022 [13][14]. - The Sci-Tech Bond ETF is designed to manage risks effectively, utilizing various credit derivatives to mitigate potential defaults [26]. Group 5: Accessibility and Cost Efficiency - The Sci-Tech Bond ETF has a low management fee of 0.2%, making it an attractive option for both retail and institutional investors looking for efficient investment vehicles in the bond market [27]. - This ETF lowers the entry barrier for individual investors to participate in the "Sci-Tech Board" and provides institutional investors with a diversified investment without the need for extensive credit research [27].