野村中国首席经济学家陆挺：上调中国GDP增长预测

Core Viewpoint - Nomura has raised its GDP growth forecast for China due to recent US-China tariff adjustments and April economic data, indicating a positive outlook for the second quarter of 2023 [2][4]. Economic Data Summary - In April, the year-on-year growth rates for industrial added value, retail sales, and fixed asset investment slowed to 6.1%, 5.1%, and 3.6% respectively, compared to March's rates of 7.7%, 5.9%, and 4.3% [4]. - The first quarter data showed more stable growth rates of 6.5%, 4.6%, and 4.2% for the same metrics [4]. GDP Growth Forecast Adjustments - The second quarter GDP growth forecast has been raised from 3.7% to 4.8%, with slight increases for the third and fourth quarters from 3.6% to 4.0% [4]. - The full-year GDP growth forecast has been adjusted from 4.0% to 4.5% [4]. Export Growth Predictions - The export growth forecast for 2025 has been revised from -2.0% to 0.0% [5][6]. - The second quarter and third quarter export growth predictions have been raised to 6.0% and -2.0% respectively, while the fourth quarter forecast has been lowered to -8.6% [6]. Retail Growth Predictions - The retail growth forecast for the second quarter has been increased to 4.2%, driven by demand from the May Day holiday and the early start of the 618 e-commerce shopping festival [8]. - The full-year retail growth forecast has been slightly raised from 3.5% to 3.7% [8].