近日，我们与野村亚洲（除日本外）及印度首席经济学家Sonal Varma女士进行对话，了解她对宏观经 济学与市场动态的热情、及其如何塑造了她独特的研究方法，还有她将学术兴趣转变为市场研判的成长 历程，以及如何从市场的繁杂信息中筛选出有效信息来支持宏观研究。 Sonal Varma 野村亚洲（除日本外）及印度首席经济学家 Sonal Varma常驻新加坡，作为野村亚洲（除日本外）全球市场研究团队的一员，负责 分析该地区的关键经济趋势，撰写并发布深度经济研究报告。她于2008年加入野村集 团，在知名财经杂志《财资》（The Asset）的印度研究评选中连续2012至2019年获评第 一名，并于2022至2023年获得泛亚研究第一名。 为什么选择从事经济研究？ Sonal Varma ：从大学时代起，我就一直对宏观经济学很感兴趣，这是我一开始走上这条路的动力。我的 第二份工作是做经济研究，当时市场波动频繁，激发了我对研究市场的兴趣。宏观和市场的结合刚好符合 我的个性，我喜欢快节奏、变化大的工作，也特别沉迷找到宏观和市场之间的关联。 作为研究员，您对什么充满热情？ Sonal Varma ：首先，我真的很喜欢研究的过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for China in 2026, emphasizing the need for increased government spending and policy measures to stabilize the economy and address internal demand pressures [5][10]. Economic Policy and Government Spending - In 2026, China is expected to implement larger-scale government spending plans, including the issuance of special bonds and a moderate reduction in interest rates by the central bank [5]. - The government aims to address the real estate sector's debt issues and reform the pension system to support sustainable consumption [5][11]. Domestic Demand and Economic Growth - In 2025, China's economy surpassed 140 trillion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, but internal demand remains weak, with retail sales and fixed asset investment declining [6][7]. - The export sector showed resilience, contributing 15%-20% to GDP, supported by China's strong industrial base and competitive pricing [7]. Stock Market Performance - The stock market was active in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 22% from 3,262 to 3,968 [8]. - Government policies have successfully supported the stock market, but there are concerns about the wealth effect being limited for retail investors due to pressures in the real estate market [8][9]. Future Economic Trends - The economic trajectory for 2026 is expected to be "front low, back high," with a focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [10]. - The central bank is anticipated to have limited room for further interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need for fiscal policy to stabilize the economy [10][12]. Debt Management and Social Security - A key focus for 2026 will be managing the debt of real estate companies and improving credit relationships to restore credit demand [11]. - Enhancing the social security system, particularly increasing pension levels, is crucial for boosting consumer spending and addressing effective demand shortages [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights Nomura Group's successful execution of its global charity challenge for the sixth consecutive year, promoting employee engagement in sports while contributing to social responsibility and charitable causes [1] Group 1: Global Participation - Approximately 1,000 employees globally participated in various activities such as cycling, running, walking, trail running, yoga, and tai chi, raising funds to support educational initiatives through donations to multiple charitable organizations [1] - In Japan, 163 employees participated, with funds raised supporting extracurricular learning activities for economically disadvantaged children [5] - Over 300 employees from Asia (excluding Japan) contributed to donations aimed at promoting quality education through charitable organizations, aligning with UNESCO's sustainable development goals [5] Group 2: Regional Contributions - In mainland China, nearly 300 employees from various branches participated, with funds raised supporting the "Hope Project 1+1," aimed at developing rural education [2] - Employees from Nomura's Shanghai headquarters and branches in Beijing and Shenzhen engaged in activities like a five-kilometer walk and health runs [2] - In Europe, 38 employees cycled 490 kilometers from Milan to Zurich, celebrating the London office's 25th anniversary while raising funds for employment skills training projects [7] Group 3: Employee Engagement and Impact - The stair climbing activity organized by Nomura Information Technology saw over 60% of participants successfully complete the challenge, showcasing the team's vitality and commitment to charity [4] - Employees expressed a sense of achievement not only from physical accomplishments but also from contributing to charitable causes, emphasizing the importance of social responsibility [5] - The Paris office's participation in a historic 10-mile run raised funds for a local youth charity, further demonstrating the company's commitment to community support [7]

2026年中国汽车行业会出现哪些新的发展趋势？ 应重熙 ：今年竞争还是很激烈，不能再以价格战为一个核心的方式来进行竞争，会转移到产品力、外观、 性能这些方面，技术、产品升级会替代降价成为新的首选。但我相信价格调整还是会有，只不过新的主旋 律是要以产品力来打动消费者。 鉴于整个收紧的国补政策，包括政府加强监管的态度，今年对汽车行业来说，质会比量更重要。 近日，野村中国汽车与零部件、科技行业分析师应重熙和媒体进行了深入交流，分享他关于中国汽车行 业的最新研究观点。以下为主要观点摘录和分享精选。 应重熙 野村中国汽车与零部件、 科技行业分析师 应重熙 ：最终的形态，我认为市场应该仍然有足够的分散度，但应该会有几家头部的企业去主导整体市 场。当然也要看到中国车企有出海的趋势，如果出海成功，中国车企的生态也会发生变化，一部分车企可 能更多走向海外渠道，另一部分车企可能会更多在本土上占有更多优势。 今年是"十五五"规划实施的第一年，需要为接下来的几年打好基础，所以今年车市可能会是调整的一 年。 从整个行业来看，中国汽车市场的供需关系还处于不平衡状态，因此国内竞争仍会非常激烈。 政策层面，2026年总趋势是收紧，同时鼓励出 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the ongoing recruitment efforts by Nomura Information Technology, particularly for various levels of Java backend developers, highlighting the importance of skilled professionals in the financial services sector [2][3]. - The company is actively seeking candidates for the Risk Capital Technology Department, specifically for the Associate level position of Senior Software Engineer, requiring proficiency in Java/Python and experience in capital market risk [2]. - Nomura Information Technology aims to build a strong development team that collaborates with global IT departments and business stakeholders to maintain market-leading systems, thereby supporting the overall business objectives of the Nomura Group [3]. Group 2 - Nomura is a global financial services institution established in 1925, providing wealth management, investment management, and institutional services, with a commitment to innovation and client service [3]. - The Shanghai-based Nomura Information Technology is a subsidiary of the Nomura Group, focusing on global market technology, capital risk control systems, and enterprise architecture [3]. - The primary responsibility of Nomura Information Technology is to develop and maintain robust systems that align with the group's business goals, emphasizing collaboration with various stakeholders [3].

Group 1 - The article expresses New Year greetings from Nomura Group, wishing readers a happy new year and success in the upcoming year [1][3] - It emphasizes the beginning of a new year as a fresh start, highlighting the company's anticipation of continuing partnerships and embarking on new journeys together [3]

Core Insights - The article features an interview with George Buckley, the Chief Economist for Europe at Nomura, discussing his career journey and the unique aspects of Nomura's research [1][2]. Group 1: Career Background - George Buckley has over 25 years of experience as a market economist and has been with Nomura for more than eight years, applying academic economic theories in practical settings [3][4]. - He holds a PhD and a Master's degree from the University of Bristol, where he also taught macroeconomics and econometrics [2]. Group 2: Passion for Economics - Buckley emphasizes the importance of applying economic knowledge to real-world scenarios to assist various stakeholders, including clients and media [4]. - He believes that explaining the analytical process is as crucial as presenting the final conclusions, akin to demonstrating the steps in solving a math problem [4]. Group 3: Unique Services at Nomura - Nomura offers distinctive services in Europe, including a podcast series designed for relaxed listening, which has received positive feedback from clients [6]. - The company balances speed and depth in data interpretation, providing both quick updates and in-depth analysis that uncovers overlooked insights [6]. Group 4: Focus on Asian Markets - Nomura's research heavily emphasizes Asian markets, supported by a robust research framework covering stocks and industries across Asia [8]. - The company values localized perspectives, with economists like Buckley focusing on the UK economy, enhancing client engagement through their local expertise [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that the investment boom driven by artificial intelligence, along with more supportive monetary and fiscal policies, will continue to propel strong global economic growth in 2026 [5] Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to show resilience despite trade-related disruptions and policy uncertainties, with a stable and accelerating growth pattern anticipated for 2026 [6] - Fiscal constraints will be a significant theme in 2026, with concerns over inflation and financial repression if budget deficits are not controlled [6] Major Economies Macroeconomic Outlook United States - The U.S. economy is projected to maintain resilience, leading growth among developed markets with a real GDP growth of 2.4% [8] - Labor market conditions are expected to improve, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.0% by year-end [8] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates twice in June and September 2026 [8] Europe - The Eurozone is expected to enter a more constructive phase, with fiscal policy becoming a core issue and economic growth accelerating, particularly in the second half of 2026 [9] - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain deposit rates at 2.00% as inflation remains near target levels [9] China - China's GDP growth is forecasted to slow to 4.3%, with a drop to 4.1% in the first half of 2026, followed by a rebound to 4.5% in the second half due to policy stimulus [10] - The central economic work conference has continued a stance of "moderate easing" in monetary policy [10] Japan - Japan's economy is expected to continue its recovery, with core inflation projected to fall below 2% in the first quarter of 2026 [11] - The Bank of Japan may extend the pause on interest rate hikes for an additional year [11] Other Asian Countries - Strong AI demand and the supercycle of storage chips are expected to lead to differentiated economic growth across various countries in Asia [12] - Countries like South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and India may see GDP growth exceeding market expectations, while Thailand and the Philippines may underperform [12]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Information Technology is actively recruiting for various positions, particularly in software engineering, to support its global market technology and risk management systems [4]. Group 1: Job Application Guidelines - Candidates are encouraged to submit their English resumes directly to hr-china@nomura.com, specifying the preferred position in the email body [2]. - Position level requirements include Analyst (2+ years), Associate (5+ years), and Vice President (8+ years) [2]. Group 2: Job Openings - The International Markets Technology Department (GMT) is seeking an Associate Software Engineering Lead with expertise in React/Redux/AG-grid, API design, and DevOps [3]. - Responsibilities include designing and developing intuitive, high-performance trading user interfaces and implementing comprehensive testing strategies [3]. - The Risk Capital Technology Department (RCT) is looking for a Senior Software Engineer with experience in market risk, credit risk, and BI development [3]. - This role involves designing and developing various modules and models related to market and credit risk projects, collaborating with risk management teams [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Nomura Information Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of the Nomura Group, integral to the global institutional business IT department and group infrastructure [4]. - The company aims to build an excellent development team to collaborate with global IT departments and business stakeholders, maintaining market-leading systems to support the group's business objectives [4].

Group 1 - Southeast Asian exporters have increased prices for goods exported to the U.S., transferring some cost pressures to American consumers [1][5] - The UNDP predicts a potential 9.7% decline in Southeast Asia's total exports to the U.S. due to tariff-induced price increases [1][5] - Despite facing cost and profit margin pressures, Asian exports are expected to remain robust, with many countries diversifying their markets away from the U.S. [1][5][6] Group 2 - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade is expected to enhance cooperation in emerging fields, particularly in the digital economy [2][6] - Southeast Asian countries are looking to leverage China's expertise in green technology and high-value manufacturing to diversify their exports [2][6] Group 3 - The signing of trade agreements with the U.S. and China indicates a trend towards trade diversification among Southeast Asian nations [6] - The region's internal trade is expected to grow as countries focus on boosting domestic consumption and reducing reliance on external markets [6][10] Group 4 - Southeast Asian stock markets face challenges in attracting foreign investment due to a lack of AI-related themes and concerns over export slowdowns [12][13] - Structural reforms in the region aim to enhance market liquidity and regulatory transparency, potentially improving the attractiveness of Southeast Asian markets [14][15] Group 5 - The economic outlook for Southeast Asia remains resilient despite external pressures, with a focus on structural reforms and domestic demand improvement [17] - Countries like Malaysia and Singapore are expected to perform well due to strong domestic demand and advancements in technology sectors [13][15]