David Seif 七月美国核心消费者价格指数上涨0.322%，接近我们的预期。不过其报告细节对核心个 人消费支出价格指数偏鸽派。我们已将预估下调。 野村发达市场首席经济学家 我们下调了对七月核心个人消费支出价格指数的预估至环比0.243%。按此预测，核心个人消费 支出价格指数的同比增速和三个月年化增速都将略低于2.9%。值得注意的是，六月和七月核心 个人消费支出价格指数的平均环比增速仅为25个基点，低于美联储六月份经济预测摘要中3.1% 的年末预测值所对应的28个基点月度增速。 我们认为通胀风险仍然偏向上行。关税相关的价格压力在商品通胀中持续显现，我们预计当汽 车制造商在未来几个月过渡到新车型年度并设定新价格时,这种压力将进一步加剧。同时，劳 动密集型服务业保持强劲。住房通胀继续逐步改善，这一趋势可能持续。然而，我们认为这不 足以抵消商品和核心服务领域的上行压力。 我们预计美联储将在九月会议上降息。通胀风险仍然偏向上行，但由于核心个人消费支出 价格指数与美联储3.1%的年末预测相符，我们预计美联储将按照六月"点阵图"的指引开展 货币宽松政策。 我们预计美联储九月降息50个基点的可能性仍然较低。虽然劳动力市 ...

近期，野村全球宏观研究主管及全球市场研究部联席主管苏博文（ Rob Subbaraman ）先生接受中国媒体 采访，分享了他对全球宏观经济的最新研究观点，以下是《 21 世纪经济报 道 》的专篇报道。 苏博文先生接受《21世纪经济报道》视频采访 苏博文 野村全球宏观研究主管及全球市场研究部联席主管 虽然特朗普对美联储，尤其对美联储主席鲍威尔持非常负面的态度，但苏博文认为，特朗普很 难影响美联储的政策，美联储有很多保障措施和强大的制度基础，美国政府很难真正控制货币 政策。 一方面，无论特朗普选择谁，都必须得到参议院的批准。另一方面，货币政策并非仅由美联储 主席决定，联邦公开市场委员会有 19 名成员， 12 名有投票权。即使特朗普任命了一个能按他 意愿行事的美联储主席，也不清楚这是否足以影响整个联邦公开市场委员会。 未来也有一些风险，苏博文警告称，明年鲍威尔卸任后，美联储可能会迎来一位与特朗普立场 更一致的新主席。虽然美联储失去独立性并非基本预期，但风险已经升至几十年来的高点。如 果真的出现这种情况，对美国经济和市场将非常不利。如果利率过低，通胀风险会上升，外国 投资者也会对美国资产失去信心，长期利率会上升，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Group is launching its 2025-2026 campus recruitment and internship programs, offering diverse positions across various departments to meet students' career development needs [2] Group 1: Recruitment Activities - Nomura will conduct both online and offline recruitment activities in the coming months, including events like "Nomura Carnival" and "Meet Nomura" to engage with potential candidates [2][3] - The "Nomura Carnival" will take place in Hong Kong and Singapore, allowing current interns and employees to share their experiences with students [2] - An Open Day event will also be held in Hong Kong and Singapore to provide insights into different career paths within the company [3] Group 2: Internship and Graduate Programs - Nomura offers three main programs for undergraduate and master's students: Summer Internship Program, Graduate Internship Program, and Graduate Program, with durations ranging from 9 weeks to 2 years [4][5] - The Summer Internship Program lasts 9-10 weeks, starting with training and business awareness courses, providing practical experience in departments like Global Markets, Investment Banking, and International Wealth Management [5][6] - The Graduate Internship Program is a 9-week opportunity for recent graduates to gain experience in sales, trading, product structuring, or research, with support from peers and mentors [7][8] - The Graduate Program spans 1-2 years, offering basic training and potential cross-functional rotations, with ongoing support and feedback from the team [9][10] Group 3: Recruitment Process - The recruitment process at Nomura includes steps from online application to formal onboarding, emphasizing the importance of thorough preparation for interviews [11][12] - Candidates are advised to research the company and departments of interest, articulating their motivations for joining Nomura during interviews [12] - Resources for interview preparation include the company website, press releases, annual reports, social media, and networking with faculty, alumni, and friends [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights of Rob Subbaraman, the global macro research head at Nomura, regarding the anticipated rise in inflation in the U.S. and the potential for stagflation as economic growth slows down in the second half of the year [3][6]. Inflation Drivers - The primary reason for the expected rise in U.S. inflation is the tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration, which have led to widespread price increases [8]. - Despite the current low inflation levels, Subbaraman believes inflation will intensify, predicting that the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise to 3.3% by Q4 [7]. - The second factor contributing to inflation is the immigration policies of the Trump administration, which have resulted in labor shortages in key industries, thereby increasing wage pressures [9]. - Lastly, the Trump administration is expected to implement expansionary fiscal policies ahead of the mid-term elections, which could contribute an additional 0.4% to 0.5% growth to the U.S. GDP but also lead to inflation [9]. Tariff Implications - Subbaraman notes that the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy may not be as limited as the market currently anticipates, suggesting that the administration may not back down easily from its tariff strategies [10]. - The logic behind the current tariff war extends beyond merely reducing trade deficits, encompassing geopolitical and diplomatic considerations as well [10][11]. - The article highlights a specific case where the U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil, which reflects the broader implications of U.S. trade policies [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Jiangsu Urban Football League ("Su Chao") has gained significant popularity, reflecting the growing demand for entertainment and consumption in the region, which is indicative of economic development stages [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Impact - "Su Chao" serves as a new consumption scene, potentially boosting domestic demand and providing fresh ideas for economic stimulation [9]. - The league's success is closely tied to the cultural and tourism industry, showcasing the effective management and creative strategies of the Jiangsu provincial government [8][15]. - The event has led to increased local tourism, with over 73 million visitors reported on match days, highlighting its economic benefits for cities like Nantong [11]. Group 2: Community Engagement - The league fosters a strong sense of local identity among fans, as each city has its own unique history and culture, contributing to sustained enthusiasm for the matches [8][12]. - The organization of matches has been well-received, with high-quality engagement from both players and fans, indicating a positive community atmosphere [7][8]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The sustainability of "Su Chao" is expected to be high, with potential for further development in local sports infrastructure and youth training programs [12][18]. - Other cities in China can learn from Jiangsu's approach, but must adapt strategies to their unique circumstances to replicate success [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the insights of Dr. Lu Ting, Chief Economist at Nomura China, on the current state of China's macroeconomy, emphasizing the importance of supply-driven demand and the role of new consumption scenarios in boosting domestic demand [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking a 1.3 percentage point acceleration from the previous month, with the "old-for-new" policy significantly contributing to this growth [5]. - The sales of household appliances surged by over 50% year-on-year in May, exceeding expectations, indicating a strong retail performance [5]. - The government aims to "greatly boost consumption and improve investment efficiency" as a top priority in its work report, suggesting a strategic focus on expanding domestic demand [4]. Group 2: Structural Economic Changes - The article highlights the ongoing structural transformation of China's economy, shifting from real estate to advanced manufacturing, with recent positive developments attributed to decades of accumulated benefits rather than short-term changes [7]. - The rapid development of China's manufacturing sector, particularly in industrial robotics, is noted, with domestic production rates exceeding 60% and total installations in 2024 surpassing those of other countries combined [7]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Dr. Lu emphasizes the need for a stable real estate market and effective debt resolution in the property sector to support consumer wealth, which is crucial for sustained consumption growth [5]. - Enhancing social security and welfare systems, along with addressing income distribution issues, is seen as vital for making consumption a key pillar of stable economic growth [5]. - The article suggests that creating new consumption scenarios, like the "Su Chao" football league, can stimulate demand and enhance local economic activity [6].

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Dr. Lu Ting emphasizes the challenges faced by the U.S. government due to high financing costs, driven by significant deficits and debt, while highlighting China's growing manufacturing capabilities and the need for stable financial policies in China to navigate the evolving international order [4][5][6][7]. Group 1: U.S. Government Financing Challenges - The U.S. government is experiencing rising financing costs, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields increasing significantly, while the dollar has depreciated [5]. - The high financing costs are attributed to a combination of factors, including a defense spending to GDP ratio of approximately 3.5%, persistent trade deficits since the late 1960s, and a national debt of $36 trillion [5]. - The U.S. economy is shifting from manufacturing to a more service-oriented model, leading to increased wealth disparity and a decline in defense manufacturing capabilities [5]. Group 2: China's Manufacturing Strength - China's manufacturing sector now accounts for over 30% of the global market, with significant advancements in shipbuilding and artificial intelligence [6]. - In shipbuilding, China holds a 54% share of global tonnage and 75% of new orders, while the domestic industrial robot installation has surpassed that of all other countries combined [6]. - The proportion of top AI talent from China reached 47% in 2022, with expectations to exceed 50% by 2025, indicating a strong position in innovation and technology [6]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations for China - The stabilization of the real estate and stock markets is crucial for China's fiscal and monetary policies, with the People's Bank of China showing commitment through direct interventions [7]. - There is an urgent need to address real estate debt and ensure housing delivery, alongside stimulating consumption sustainably to support economic growth [7]. - The reform of social security and welfare systems is deemed essential for enhancing consumer capacity and influencing investment strategies [7]. - Leveraging Hong Kong's unique position for international collaboration and actively participating in the reconstruction of the global order is recommended, as evidenced by the recent recovery in the Hong Kong stock market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The 22nd Nomura Asia Investment Forum highlights the complexities of the current market environment, emphasizing the need for strategic adaptation and collaboration to seize emerging opportunities amidst challenges [2][5]. Group 1: Market Environment - The ongoing trade disputes have caused significant market volatility and disrupted traditional trade flows, leading to a re-evaluation of production layouts and global business strategies by many companies [5]. - Technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and continuous economic policy adjustments present both challenges and opportunities for businesses [5]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Performance - Despite market fluctuations, the global market business of the company has demonstrated remarkable resilience and adaptability, reflecting strategic initiatives and client trust [6]. - The company aims to leverage its local advantages in Japan to build a robust revenue system across various business segments [6]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Positive signals from the Chinese economy have prompted the company to raise its GDP growth forecast for China to 4.5% for the year [7]. - India is identified as an attractive market with long-term opportunities, and the company is keen to expand its client base there [6]. Group 4: Forum Insights - The forum brings together experts from various fields, including economics, markets, geopolitics, tariff policies, asset allocation, and technology, to provide multi-dimensional insights [8]. - Approximately 850 investors and 140 companies are participating in the forum, indicating strong interest and engagement in the discussions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights various museums that are particularly suitable for children, encouraging families to visit these educational and engaging spaces during holidays [2][5][13][15][18][22]. Group 1: Recommended Museums - Fotografiska in Shanghai offers a visually stimulating experience with a focus on photography, making it suitable for children under 7 who can enter for free [2]. - The National Museum of Natural History in Paris provides an immersive experience with numerous animal specimens and interactive screens for children, enhancing the educational aspect of the visit [5]. - Schönbrunn Palace in Vienna features multiple venues and a family-friendly environment, including a maze and playground, making it an ideal day out for families [8]. - The Beijing Ancient Architecture Museum showcases significant historical artifacts and offers engaging explanations, providing a cool environment for children to learn about Chinese history [13]. - The Shanghai Auto Museum displays a wide range of classic cars, allowing children to learn about automotive history in a family-friendly setting [15]. - The Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York offers a rich cultural experience, where children can engage with art through interactive guides, fostering a love for history and creativity [18]. - The Leonardo Interactive Museum in Florence allows children to interact with inventions and puzzles related to Leonardo da Vinci, making learning fun and memorable [22].

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of a strong support network for employee mental health through initiatives like the "Mental Health Awareness Week" [2][9]. Group 1: Support Initiatives - The company has established various support channels for employees, including a Mental Health Advocate Program, where trained volunteers provide listening support and help colleagues access mental health resources [2]. - All full-time employees and eligible family members can reimburse expenses for mental health treatment through the company's medical insurance plan [3]. - The Employee Assistance Program (EAP) offers specialized services from experienced psychologists and counselors, covering areas such as interpersonal relationships, career development, parenting guidance, and bereavement counseling [4][5]. Group 2: Employee Engagement - The company encourages employees to expand their social networks to strengthen support systems and foster an open and inclusive work environment [8]. - Anita Leung, the joint executive initiator of the mental health network, highlights the need for awareness that everyone may need help at times and the importance of being a support for others [6][8].