2025清华五道口全球金融论坛主题讨论六丨新兴市场债务危机与金融治理

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging market debt crisis and financial governance, highlighting various countries' approaches and policies to address the issue, as presented during the Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum held in Shenzhen [1]. Group 1: Mongolia's Experience - Mongolia's central bank vice governor shared the country's experience in managing its debt crisis, noting that government debt reached 90% of GDP in 2016, prompting international concern [6]. - The Mongolian government implemented measures such as a legal cap on external debt at 88% of GDP and established a transparent debt disclosure mechanism, enhancing market confidence [6]. - These actions reduced government debt to 60% of GDP and improved Mongolia's sovereign credit rating to B+, serving as a model for other emerging markets [6]. Group 2: Thailand's Debt Situation - Thailand's central bank official pointed out that debt levels had been rising even before the pandemic, exacerbated by COVID-19 and inflation, leading to increased debt among households and businesses [9]. - The country has initiated measures like a "prudent borrowing plan" and debt consolidation schemes to manage household debt, which is notably higher than in comparable countries [9]. - The official emphasized the challenges of achieving "healthy deleveraging" in a highly uncertain environment, complicating policy coordination and assessment [9]. Group 3: Global Debt Landscape - The director of the International Finance Research Center highlighted the severe global debt situation, with total debt expected to reach a record $318 trillion by 2024, and emerging market debt exceeding $105 trillion [12]. - Factors such as trade tensions, economic slowdown, and reduced international aid have significantly increased debt risks in emerging markets, with 15% of low-income countries already in debt distress [12]. - Recommendations include restoring international trade, enhancing G20 dialogue, and improving sovereign debt restructuring mechanisms to alleviate the debt burden on low-income countries [13]. Group 4: New Development Bank's Role - The New Development Bank, established by emerging market countries, focuses on sustainable development financing, emphasizing innovative financing models and project selection [15]. - The bank has increased the proportion of loans in local currencies to mitigate exchange rate risks and supports projects that promote both economic growth and environmental sustainability [15]. - Future plans include expanding local currency financing and directing resources towards climate adaptation and energy transition, aiming for a fair and inclusive international financial system [15].