滞胀可能导致美国银行业危机再次爆发

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. banking industry is under significant stress due to high interest rates, with potential risks of a new banking crisis similar to the one experienced in March 2023, particularly if economic conditions worsen due to inflation and other factors [1][9][10]. Group 1: Current Banking Situation - As of the end of 2024, the total unrealized losses in U.S. bank securities investments reached $482.4 billion, an increase of $118 billion or 32.5% from the previous quarter [1]. - The peak of unrealized losses was $684 billion at the end of 2023, indicating a troubling trend for the banking sector [1]. - Experts warn that if interest rates remain high, the accumulated losses during the crisis will not dissipate, leading to further vulnerabilities in the banking system [10]. Group 2: Expert Opinions - Financial experts emphasize that unless assets are sold, unrealized losses do not appear on banks' profit and loss statements, but they pose a liquidity threat if depositor confidence wanes [2][6]. - The volatility of long-term interest rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, is closely linked to bank losses, with current rates hovering above 4.5% [5][6]. - The potential for a new banking crisis remains, as any negative news about a bank could trigger a repeat of the March 2023 crisis [2][8]. Group 3: Risks and Concerns - The banking sector's exposure to long-term securities, which are classified as "held to maturity," means that their market value fluctuations do not directly impact financial statements unless sold [6][7]. - If banks are forced to sell investments, they must mark their entire portfolio to market value, which could lead to significant liquidity issues [6][10]. - Regional and super-regional banks, particularly those with asset sizes between $10 billion and $200 billion, are highlighted as particularly vulnerable due to their large uninsured deposits exceeding the FDIC insurance limit [10].