阿里相对低估

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's financial performance for the fiscal year 2025 shows a revenue of 996.3 billion, a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, with a significant increase in net profit by 76.6% to 126 billion, driven by strong core business resilience and investor confidence in its AI capabilities [3][4]. Revenue Structure - The revenue structure of Alibaba's six major groups for fiscal year 2025 is as follows: Taotian Group (449.8 billion), International Digital Commerce Group (132.3 billion), Cloud Intelligence Group (118 billion), Cainiao Group (101.3 billion), Local Life Group (67.1 billion), and Entertainment Group (22.3 billion) [7][9]. - Taotian Group dominates with 45.1% of total revenue, while International Digital Commerce and Cloud Intelligence contribute 13.3% and 11.8% respectively, indicating a slight shift in rankings compared to the previous fiscal year [9]. Revenue Growth Drivers - The revenue growth of 81.5 billion in fiscal year 2025 was contributed by all six major groups, with International Digital Commerce leading with a growth of 29.4 billion, followed by Taotian Group with 14.9 billion [10][11]. - The international digital commerce segment is expected to remain a key driver for revenue growth, despite external uncertainties [20]. Taotian Group Performance - Taotian Group's revenue is primarily from "China Retail" and "China Wholesale," with retail accounting for over 90%. In fiscal year 2025, retail revenue was 332.35 billion, showing a growth of 11.8% [13][15]. - The restructuring of Taotian Group has led to improved profitability, with EBIT increasing to 196.2 billion and a profit margin of 43.5% in fiscal year 2025 [18]. Cloud Intelligence Insights - Alibaba Cloud, as the largest public cloud service provider in China, reported a revenue of 77.2 billion in fiscal year 2023, with a growth of 4%. The introduction of AI capabilities has significantly boosted service uptake [22][24]. - The cloud segment's profitability has improved steadily, with EBIT reaching 10.6 billion and a profit margin of 8.9% in fiscal year 2025 [24]. Strategic Outlook - The cross-border e-commerce segment is viewed as a "second growth curve," with significant potential for expansion, leveraging lower costs and a wider range of products compared to traditional trade [27]. - The integration of AI and cloud services is expected to enhance business operations and valuation, with Alibaba's current P/E ratio at 16 times, indicating potential for significant valuation uplift as AI capabilities are recognized [27][28].