Capex去哪儿了？

Core Viewpoint - Both Tencent and Alibaba have shown stable fundamentals in their recent financial reports, with Tencent outperforming Alibaba, particularly in its core businesses of gaming and advertising, as well as its investments in AI [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent's main businesses, including gaming and advertising, remain solid, indicating a strong financial position [1] - Alibaba's focus on cloud business growth has led to high expectations, but a period of consolidation is deemed normal before accelerating growth in the coming quarters [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure (Capex) - Both companies have seen a significant decrease in capital expenditures, raising questions about the allocation of their funds [1] - The NV provision of $5.5 billion is estimated to impact revenues by approximately $15 billion, or 100 billion RMB, suggesting that BAT (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) has saved on expenses [1] - If 40% of the NV provision is attributed to Tencent and Alibaba, around 40 billion RMB could potentially be redirected to capital expenditures in the current quarter [1] Group 3: AI and Hardware Strategy - The strategy moving forward involves focusing on software optimization due to hardware limitations, with Tencent adopting a more cautious approach to spending [2] - The demand for AI solutions is expected to rise significantly, leading to increased competition in the AI agent space in the second half of the year [2] Group 4: Global Technology Dynamics - The U.S. aims to maintain AI dominance by selling technology globally while preventing other countries from developing self-sufficient capabilities [3] - A recent paper by DeepSeek emphasizes the importance of hardware-software collaboration and suggests that merely increasing spending or production capacity is insufficient for overcoming current challenges [3] - A collaborative optimization approach that aligns with China's unique ecosystem may be essential for breaking through systemic blockades [3]