JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) 证券时报·2025-05-21 12:36Group 1: Core Views - Morgan Stanley's 21st Global China Summit will be held in Shanghai from May 22 to 23, focusing on the theme "Capital as a Bridge Connecting the World" with over 2,800 participants from 33 countries and regions [1] - Following the US-China Geneva trade talks, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Zhu Haibin, raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 from 4.1% to 4.8% [4][5] - The firm sees the current market as a buying opportunity, particularly favoring Hong Kong stocks and expecting good performance from A-shares [2][8] Group 2: Economic Policy Adjustments - Zhu Haibin highlighted that China has undergone the most profound and extensive policy adjustments in recent years, with the first half of this adjustment period expected to last until the end of 2024 [5][6] - Fiscal policy is becoming more aggressive, with the budget deficit rate reaching 4% of GDP for the first time, exceeding the previous 3% cap [5] - The contribution of exports to China's GDP growth is expected to decrease significantly this year, while domestic consumption and investment are anticipated to rise [4][5] Group 3: Market Outlook and Sector Preferences - The market is currently in a phase of fluctuation, with expectations for a breakthrough following the conclusion of the 90-day trade negotiations [8][9] - The internet and healthcare sectors are viewed positively, with particular emphasis on the healthcare industry due to potential benefits from US healthcare reforms [8][9] - The MSCI China index is projected to have target scenarios of 70, 80, and 89 points for pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic outlooks respectively, while the CSI 300 index has a baseline target of 4,150 points [9]