JP MORGAN CHASE(US:JPM) 券商中国·2025-05-21 11:45Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's 21st Global China Summit will be held in Shanghai from May 22 to 23, focusing on the theme "Capital as a Bridge Connecting the World" with over 2,800 participants from more than 1,400 companies across 33 countries and regions [1] Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Zhu Haibin, has raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 from 4.1% to 4.8% following the US-China Geneva trade talks, indicating a significant policy adjustment in China over the past two years [2][3][4] - The average effective tariff rate imposed by the US on China has decreased to approximately 41%, while China's effective tariff rate on the US is around 28% [3] Policy Adjustments - Zhu Haibin highlights that the current policy adjustments in China are characterized by three main aspects: fiscal policy expansion, the necessity for further interest rate cuts, and a focus on expanding domestic demand and consumption [4] - The budget deficit rate for this year has reached 4% of GDP, surpassing the previous limit of 3%, indicating a more aggressive fiscal policy stance [4] Sector Performance - Zhu Haibin notes that while exports are expected to contribute 30% to China's GDP growth in 2024, domestic consumption and investment are anticipated to increase their contribution compared to last year due to policy adjustments [3][4] - The new economy sectors, particularly in technology innovation such as IT and AI, are showing strong performance, while consumer sectors benefiting from the "trade-in" policy are outperforming others [5] Stock Market Strategy - Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia and China Equity Strategist, Liu Mingdi, believes that the current market presents a buying opportunity, particularly for Hong Kong stocks, with A-shares also expected to perform well [6][8] - Liu emphasizes the importance of the upcoming trade negotiations, suggesting that market breakthroughs may occur post-negotiation [6][8] Investment Recommendations - Liu recommends focusing on the internet and healthcare sectors, while advising a lower allocation to power and energy sectors [8] - The MSCI China Index is projected to have target scenarios of 70, 80, and 89 points for pessimistic, neutral, and optimistic outlooks respectively, while the CSI 300 Index has a baseline target of 4,150 points [8]