李迅雷专栏 | 中美关税谈判的前景分析及应对

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent US-China trade negotiations and the impact of tariffs on China's exports and economy, emphasizing the need for comprehensive economic discussions beyond just tariffs [2][4][5]. Tariff Negotiations - As of May 12, 2023, the US and China had imposed tariffs of 125% and 145% respectively, but both sides agreed to suspend 91% of these tariffs and delay 24% for 90 days to negotiate further [2][4]. - The US has imposed a total of 30% tariffs on China this year, with 20% attributed to China's handling of fentanyl, leading to China's retaliatory tariffs on US goods [4][5]. Impact on Exports - The tariffs are projected to reduce China's exports by approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025, resulting in a year-on-year decline of about 4.5% [9]. - The average tariff on Chinese exports to the US is expected to increase by 32.6% over the next 90 days if negotiations do not yield positive results [11]. Economic Growth Implications - The increase in tariffs could lead to a GDP decline of 0.6 percentage points for China in 2025, with potential further impacts depending on the outcome of negotiations [16][17]. - If negotiations fail, the average tariff could rise to 47.4%, significantly affecting trade dynamics and economic stability [11][12]. Trade Diversification - China is expected to increase its re-export trade through regions like ASEAN and Mexico, which have been less affected by US tariffs, potentially boosting trade volumes [12][13]. - The article suggests that the US's high tariffs on Chinese goods may lead to a shift in trade patterns, with increased reliance on alternative markets [12][13]. Policy Recommendations - The article advocates for increased fiscal policies to stimulate domestic consumption in response to declining exports, suggesting a focus on consumer spending to mitigate economic downturns [20][21]. - It emphasizes the importance of financial openness and the internationalization of the yuan as strategies to counterbalance the effects of US tariffs and enhance trade resilience [23][26].