近期市场情绪与风险偏好持续回升，股指波动变大，投资者想买又怕摔的情绪较之过去更为明显。我们邀 请中泰资管副总经理姜诚做客直播间，并对直播内容整理如下： 主播 基金经理跨越一轮牛熊周期战胜市场不算特别难，但每年战胜市场就很难。先请姜总复盘，如何评 价自己过去一年的投资成绩？ 姜诚 过去5年我们业绩的表现还不错。过去一年，如果与同行相比，我们的排名可能没那么靠前，但仍有 一定的绝对回报。我们在不断梳理组合内的具体标的，发现与买入初衷相比没有特别多的偏差，后续就基 本面的演进而言，有变得更好的，也有稍微艰难一些的因素。整体而言，我们对于组合过去一年表现出来 的状态比较满意。 从投资者角度出发，如果大家更倾向于用一段时间内的收益率来判断，那么对于我们表现的评价参考排名 即可。但从我个人角度看，我觉得还是可以及格的。如果给过去一年打分，我觉得有六七十分还是可以有 的。 展望未来，以目前组合的状态来看，我们的长期目标没有变。 我们依然希望以穿越牛熊周期的视角为持 有人带来相对稳健且超越市场的回报， 无论幅度大小。作为主动管理型基金经理，我们仍希望赚取超额 收益，目前这一目标没有调整，我们对于实现这一目标的信心也依然在。如 ...

本材料不构成投资建议，观点具有时效性。本公司承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不 保证基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资有风险，基金过往业绩不代表其未来表现。基金管理人管理的基金 的业绩不构成对其他基金业绩表现的保证。投资者投资基金时应认真阅读基金的基金合同、招募说明书、基金产 品资料概要等法律文件。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的"买者自负"原则，请投资者根据自身的风险承受能力 选择适合自己的基金产品。基金有风险，投资须谨慎。 基本功的基,就是基金的基。 做好投资、买对基金, 从夯实投资基金的基本功开始。 1分钟GET一个知识点, 起步更轻松。 股市涨了 债市一定会跌吗? 不是,股债晓晓晓并非铁律, 两者也存在同涨同跌的情况。 股债晓晓杨逻辑是,当股市上涨时,投资者风险偏 好提升,资金从债市流向股市,推高股价、压低债 中泰证券资产管理 扫码进入基本功专栏 ...

编者按：说到债券，很多投资者的第一反应是"我知道"——债券是一类风险收益都不太高的稳健投资选 择。 然后，就没有然后了。 从风险收益的角度来理解债券，当然没错。可除此之外，还有哪些是投资前理应知道的债券投资常识呢？ 说实话，整理"债券投资常识"这活不好干。有些知识点太碎、有些内容很难用通俗有趣又准确的方式地表 达。当然，更重要的是，小编在这一领域也所知不多。 关键时刻，有专业人士挺身而出来帮忙。基金经理商园波通过问答的形式整理了以下内容，希望能帮助大 家在开启债券投资之前，至少先做到"心中有常识"。 债券究竟是什么， 和股票的本质区别有哪些？ 一 大家平时对债券接触不多，但其实债券市场规模要比股票大。在中国的金融大池子里，债券是比股票更 为"庞大"的一类资产。 从发行人角度来说，债券和股票都属于融资工具，不过债券属于债务融资工具，股票属于权益融资工具。 想象一下，如果一家公司需要钱来发展。它有两种主要 融资 方式： 一种是借钱，公司借了钱会打个借条，上面会记载着本金、利率、到期日等信息。可以把债券看看成借 条，不过跟普通借条不同的是，这张借条是标准化的，每一张借条面额必须是100元，这是由国家来规定 的。 由 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is characterized by "low growth and high volatility," with increasing debt levels and persistent inflation, leading to a complex and challenging economic environment [5][6]. Group 1: Global Debt Issues - The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global public debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 95.1% and may rise to 99.6% by 2030, with developed countries like Japan exceeding 250% and the U.S. around 125% [9]. - The increase in government debt is linked to historical events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced governments to leverage debt to maintain stability [9][11]. - The debt cycle varies across sectors, with corporate debt being the shortest, human life cycles being medium, and national debt cycles being the longest due to government credit [9][10]. Group 2: China's Debt Landscape - China's debt situation differs from Western countries, with a central government leverage ratio of only 25%, but local government debt pressures are rising significantly [15]. - The macro leverage ratio, including hidden debts, is approaching 300%, surpassing the average levels of Western nations, indicating a need for caution [15][16]. - The debt issue in China is closely tied to its economic growth model, where investment contributes over 40% to GDP, leading to a cycle of "investment-debt" [16][17]. Group 3: Economic Outlook for 2025 - The Chinese economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, with export data performing well and consumption boosted by a 300 billion yuan policy [21][22]. - However, there are concerns about economic downward pressure in the second half, with investment growth slowing and real estate investment declining [22][23]. - Recommendations for policy adjustments include expanding consumption policies to benefit lower-income groups and enhancing social security to support human capital development [23][24]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Gold has been a strong performer, reflecting deep changes in the global economic landscape, and is seen as a suitable hedge in a high-volatility, low-growth environment [21][24]. - The capital market is expected to find balance, with A-shares potentially outperforming due to reasonable valuations and improving investor sentiment [23][24].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds, suggesting that solid basic skills in fund investment are essential for success [2] - FOF funds' equity asset allocation can be estimated by reviewing the fund contract and its holding data, which provides insights into the proportion of equity assets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current market rally has exceeded many investors' expectations, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3731.69 point high from 2021, reaching a ten-year high [2] Group 1: Market Participants - The market funds are categorized into four types: state-owned funds, institutions, retail investors, and foreign capital, with varying levels of participation [2] - State-owned funds, referred to as the "national team," have been largely absent, with significant net outflows from broad-based ETFs since May, while industry-specific ETFs saw inflows in July [2] - Institutional participation is characterized by limited motivation for public funds to increase holdings, with the stock allocation of actively managed public funds at 71.4%, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points over the past year [2] - Retail investors have shown increased participation, with new account openings rising to above the 60th percentile level over the past three years, and small order net inflows increasing by 39% month-over-month in July [3] - Foreign capital has shown signs of recovery, with a 36.3% increase in average daily trading volume of northbound funds in July compared to June, marking a significant return of foreign investment [3] Group 2: Active Funds and Retail Participation - Active funds, including speculative capital, margin trading, and private equity, have driven the recent market uptrend, with average daily trading amounts on the top trading list reaching 30.8 billion yuan in August [5] - The margin trading balance has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, indicating a growing interest in leveraged trading [5] - Private equity has also expanded, with an average stock long position of 61.1% in June, up 5.3 percentage points from the end of last year [5] - Despite the increase in retail participation, the overall engagement remains low, with new account openings in July matching April levels but still below the levels seen in February and March [5] Group 3: Foreign Capital Trends - Recent reports indicate a significant increase in foreign capital activity, with the proportion of foreign trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 12.9% [6] - Strategic investors from foreign markets have participated in Hong Kong IPOs at a five-year high, although overall trends in foreign mutual funds show mixed results, with passive funds seeing net inflows while active funds experienced slight outflows [6] - The analysis of different funding sources helps to understand the current market dynamics and the reasons behind valuation disparities among sectors [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current low interest rate environment is challenging traditional investment strategies, particularly for those relying on interest income from bank deposits and fixed-income products [2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Multiple banks have announced reductions in deposit interest rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping to 0.95%, resulting in less than 10,000 yuan interest for 1 million yuan in a year [2]. - The yield on 10-year government bonds has continued to decline, reaching approximately 1.7%, indicating a shrinking return space for traditional fixed-income products [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The "fixed income plus" strategy is being adopted by funds like Zhongtai Shuangyi Bond, which focuses on bonds while enhancing returns through equity investments, aiming to cover a more diversified asset base [5]. - The secondary bond fund index has seen a significant increase of 378.07% over the past 20 years, outperforming the medium to long-term bond fund index, which increased by 141.81% [6]. Group 3: Fund Performance - Zhongtai Shuangli Bond A has shown significant excess performance since its inception, ranking in the top 16% among similar funds over the past two years [8]. - The fund's one-year return is 5.04%, compared to a benchmark of 4.26%, indicating strong performance relative to its peers [9]. Group 4: Management Team - The fund management team consists of experienced professionals, with both managers having over ten years of investment research experience [11]. - Zhongtai Securities Asset Management, established in 2014, has built a reputation for prioritizing investor interests, managing assets totaling 105.75 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025 [14].

提问 1. 全市场的债券基金那么多，到底有什么区别？ 回答 按照投资范围，我们可以把主动管理型债券基金分为两类。一类是纯债基金，是指那些只能投资于 固定收益类金融工具的基金，不参与新股申购，也不投资股票。另一类是混合债基。 混合债基又可以分为一级债基和二级债基（主要根据投资标的作区别）。 本产品为混合二级债基： 投资于债券的比例不低于基金资产的 80% ，投资于权益类资产及可转换债券 （含分离交易可转债）、可交换债券的投资合计占基金资产的比例为 5%-20% ， 其中投资于境内股票资 产的比例不低于基金资产的5%，投资于港股通标的股票不超过股票资产的50%。也就是大家常说的"固收 +"产品。 提问 2. 本产品的风险收益特点如何？ 回答 本基金作为混合二级债基，预期收益和风险水平低于股票型基金，高于纯债基金与货币基金。同 时，本基金力争风险目标与中长期债券型基金指数相近。由于二级债基主要资产投资于债券市场，小幅参 与权益投资，产品兼具固收类资产严控风险及权益类资产争取更高收益的特性。 近20年来，二级债基指 数的涨幅 378.07% ，大幅跑赢中证全债（同期涨幅141.61%）。 上述数据来源：Wind，统计 ...

Group 1: Air Conditioning Industry - The air conditioning market in China shows a complex situation despite good domestic sales, with domestic shipment volume accounting for over 70% of global output but only 40% of global sales [3][4] - In Q1, the air conditioning industry experienced approximately 6% year-on-year growth, accelerating to around 12% in Q2, with major brands seeing over 20% growth in actual sales volume [4][5] - The performance of air conditioning companies varies significantly based on their business structure, with one leading company having an 80% share of its revenue from air conditioning, while others have 40% and 20% respectively [5][6] - Export data shows a 25% year-on-year increase in Q1, but a decline of about 8% in Q2, indicating that policy changes can significantly impact export performance [5][6] - The trend of climate warming is expected to increase air conditioning penetration in regions that previously had low demand, such as Northeast China and parts of Europe and North America [6][7] - The average price of a popular air conditioning model has dropped from over 2500 yuan to around 2100 yuan, indicating intensified competition in the market [8][9] - The competitive landscape is changing, with traditional brands facing pressure from new entrants, particularly tech companies entering the smart home space [9][10] - Long-term competitive advantages in the air conditioning sector are expected to stem from supply chain efficiency and cost advantages, despite short-term challenges from policy changes and market dynamics [7][10] Group 2: Beer Industry - The beer industry is seeing a shift towards more visually appealing packaging to attract consumers, particularly younger demographics [13][14] - The core value of beer lies in its refreshing properties and social consumption scenarios, with a growing emphasis on product quality and differentiation [14][15] - The trend of low-alcohol and non-alcoholic beers is gaining traction, with global sales of such products growing by approximately 8% to 10%, although their market share remains low [18][19] - The introduction of craft beers by traditional beer companies is a response to the increasing competition from new entrants and changing consumer preferences [20][21] - The market for craft beers is still in its early stages in China, with major beer companies likely to leverage their scale and distribution advantages to capture market share [22][23] - The impact of regulatory changes, such as the "Eight Regulations," has been less significant on the beer industry compared to the liquor sector, with overall sales remaining stable [17][19] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with new players entering the market and established brands needing to adapt their strategies to maintain market share [20][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of "emotional consumption" as a significant trend in the capital market, particularly among younger consumers who prioritize emotional value alongside practicality and cost-effectiveness [1][4]. Group 1: Emotional Consumption Overview - Emotional consumption, also known as emotional spending, emphasizes the importance of emotional satisfaction in purchasing behavior, particularly among young people and singles [6]. - The trend of emotional consumption is linked to societal changes, such as Japan's aging population and declining marriage and birth rates, leading to a more individualized approach to consumption [6]. Group 2: Economic Context and Trends - Economic slowdowns often lead to a shift in consumer demand from functional to emotional value, as seen in historical contexts in both Japan and the U.S. [9]. - In Japan, post-bubble economic adjustments led to the growth of various sectors, including discount stores, pet economy, and virtual idol markets, highlighting the resilience of emotional consumption [9][10]. Group 3: Long-term Emotional Needs - Core emotional needs persist over time, but the forms of products and services evolve, requiring businesses to transform fleeting emotional sparks into lasting customer loyalty [13]. - Factors influencing the lifecycle of emotional consumption products include addictive design, social currency attributes, and cultural symbolism [14]. Group 4: Avoiding Homogenization - Emotional consumption products risk homogenization due to the ease of replicating emotional experiences through existing cultural symbols and marketing strategies [16]. - To maintain competitive advantage, companies must build an unreplicable emotional value chain and develop barriers through emotional technology, cultural integration, and dynamic social ecosystems [16].