财政仍有提速空间——4月财政数据点评（申万宏观 · 赵伟团队)

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation in China for the first four months of 2025, highlighting a decline in general public budget revenue and an increase in expenditure, indicating a potential for fiscal acceleration supported by government debt financing [2][7]. Group 1: Fiscal Performance Overview - In the first four months of 2025, general public budget revenue was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2][7]. - The broad fiscal revenue grew by 2.7% year-on-year in April 2025, and broad fiscal expenditure increased by 12.9%, with both metrics showing improvement compared to March [3][8]. Group 2: Debt Financing and Support - The broad fiscal deficit reached -2.7 trillion yuan in April 2025, higher than the average deficit of -1.4 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2024, indicating effective support from government debt financing [10]. - As of May 16, 2025, the net financing of government bonds reached 2.4 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 49.4%, significantly higher than the 20.9% progress in the same period of 2024 [10]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Land Revenue - The issuance progress of new special bonds remains slow, with a current issuance scale of 1.37 trillion yuan and a progress rate of 31%, lower than the 43.5% and 43.1% in 2022 and 2023 respectively [13]. - Land transfer revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 4% in April 2025, with a significant improvement in the growth rate compared to March, indicating potential recovery in local government financing [12][19]. Group 4: Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund revenue increased by 8.1% year-on-year in April 2025, with land transfer income contributing to this improvement [19]. - Government fund expenditure surged by 44.7% year-on-year in April 2025, driven by the recovery in land transfer income and accelerated issuance of special bonds [31]. Group 5: Tax Revenue Trends - General fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year increase of 1.9% in April 2025, with tax revenue recovering marginally, particularly in stamp duty and individual income tax [25]. - The budget completion rate for general fiscal revenue in April 2025 was 9.3%, slightly higher than the same period in 2024 and the average of the past five years [25].