Workflow
【石化化工交运】新消费下的包装升级，持续看好MXD6产业链——石化化工交运行业日报第66期（20250520）（赵乃迪/胡星月）
光大证券研究·2025-05-21 14:00

Core Viewpoint - Domestic demand in China shows strong resilience, and there are promising opportunities for packaging upgrades under the new consumption trend [3] Group 1: Domestic Consumption Trends - In April 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%, with a 0.8 percentage point decrease in growth rate compared to March [3] - From January to April, the total retail sales amounted to 16.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, which is an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] Group 2: Packaging Market Insights - The global high-barrier packaging film market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030, with significant market potential for materials like PVDC, EVOH, and MXD6 [4] - The high-barrier packaging film market is projected to reach 80.59 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.99% from 2024 to 2030 [4] Group 3: Material Market Dynamics - PVDC sales are expected to reach 1.376 billion USD in 2024, with projections of 1.62 billion USD by 2031 [4] - The EVOH resin market for packaging films is anticipated to reach 1.51 billion USD by 2030 [4] - MXD6 exhibits excellent gas barrier performance and thermal stability, with high transparency and puncture resistance, maintaining its barrier performance even under increased humidity [4] Group 4: Domestic Production Developments - Currently, MXD6 production is mainly dominated by foreign companies, with Mitsubishi Gas Chemical having a capacity of 19,000 tons/year and Solvay 8,000 tons/year [5] - Domestic companies like Sinochem International and Qicai Chemical are making significant advancements in MXD6 production technology, with Qicai Chemical's 5,000 tons/year MXD6 project entering trial production in September 2024 [5] - The gradual advancement of domestic alternatives is expected to lead to a further decline in MXD6 prices and an increase in market share [5]