【交通运输】贸易冲突缓和，集运景气度有望持续回升——交通运输行业周报第40期（0512-0518）（赵乃迪/胡星月/王礼沫）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S., leading to a significant increase in shipping demand and freight rates on U.S. routes, alongside projections for future growth in global shipping demand and oil transportation needs [2][3][4]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Shipping Demand - The recent Geneva trade talks between China and the U.S. resulted in a suspension of tariff increases, marking a temporary easing of trade tensions [2]. - Container booking volumes from China to the U.S. surged by 277%, rising from 5,709 TEU to 21,530 TEU within a week [2]. - Freight rates for U.S. routes increased significantly, with average rates for the West and East coasts reaching $3,091 and $4,069 per FEU, reflecting increases of 31.7% and 22.0% respectively [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the short term, supply-demand mismatches are expected to support rising freight rates on U.S. routes, as companies may increase inventory and logistics investments to mitigate potential future tariff impacts [3]. - Shipping companies have reduced capacity on U.S. routes due to previous tariff impacts, with Maersk cutting 20% of its capacity on routes from China to the U.S. [3]. - Long-term projections indicate a potential increase in global shipping demand, with Clarksons forecasting a growth of 0.3% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026 [3]. Group 3: Oil Demand and Transportation - The IEA has slightly raised its global oil demand forecast for 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day, driven primarily by emerging economies [4]. - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, which may positively impact oil transportation demand [4]. - The IEA anticipates that OPEC+ production will increase by 310,000 barrels per day this year and by 150,000 barrels per day in 2026 [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - Over the past five trading days, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76%, while the transportation sector outperformed with a gain of 2.1% [4]. - The shipping sub-sector saw the highest increase at 7.42%, followed by ports at 4.23% and aviation at 2.53% [4].