24潮·2025-05-21 22:46Core Viewpoint - The recycling of power batteries in the electric vehicle industry is expected to enter a period of explosive growth driven by strong policies and market demand, with significant increases in both the number of electric vehicles and the scale of battery recycling [1][3][17]. Market Data - As of the end of 2024, the number of new energy vehicles in China is projected to reach 31.4 million, accounting for 8.90% of the total vehicle population, with pure electric vehicles making up 70.34% of this figure [1]. - The new registration of new energy vehicles in 2024 is expected to be 11.25 million, representing 41.83% of all new vehicle registrations, a staggering increase of 837.50% compared to 2019 [1]. - The market size for power battery recycling in China is anticipated to exceed 48 billion yuan by 2024, up from approximately 5 billion yuan in 2019, indicating a robust growth trend [3]. Policy Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has revised the "Comprehensive Utilization Industry Specification Conditions for Waste Power Batteries from New Energy Vehicles," focusing on optimizing technical indicators, updating standards, and enhancing product quality management [2][3]. - The State Council has approved an action plan to improve the recycling system for power batteries, emphasizing the importance of enhancing recycling capabilities to support the high-quality development of the new energy vehicle industry [2][3]. Future Projections - The retired power battery volume in China is expected to reach 20.2 GWh in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 48.53%, with projections suggesting that the recycling market could grow to 55.6 GWh by 2025 [6]. - By 2030, the total amount of retired batteries and new energy vehicles is forecasted to reach 148.7 GWh and 2.9891 million units, respectively, with annual compound growth rates of 37.64% and 38.11% from 2025 to 2030 [6][7]. Industry Dynamics - The battery recycling industry is characterized by a diverse range of players, including electric vehicle manufacturers, battery producers, and recycling companies, with a significant increase in registered recycling enterprises in recent years [10][12]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with major players like CATL and Greenmead leading the charge in establishing extensive recycling networks and improving recovery rates for valuable metals [15][16]. Key Players - CATL has established a global recycling network with a processing capacity of 270,000 tons of waste batteries annually, achieving high recovery rates for nickel, cobalt, and lithium [15]. - Greenmead has built five major recycling centers in China, with a dismantling capacity of 550,000 tons and a recovery rate of over 95% for lithium [16]. Conclusion - The future of the power battery recycling industry is poised for significant growth, with the potential for market size to exceed 100 billion yuan, driven by increasing demand for recycled materials and the establishment of efficient recycling systems [7][17].