热点思考 | 消费困局的“盲点”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core issue of service consumption recovery is that it is slower compared to goods consumption, with a significant gap in service consumption tendency compared to historical trends, indicating that income may not be the primary constraint on service recovery [2][8][107] - In 2024, the gap in per capita service consumption compared to historical trends is 2,093 yuan (13.9%), while the gap for goods consumption is only 458 yuan (2.9%) [2][8][107] - The increase in working hours, averaging 6 hours and 23 minutes per day in 2023, has reduced leisure time, which is crucial for service consumption [2][19][107] Group 2 - The increase in working hours has led to a concentration of consumption during holidays, but the legal holiday days are relatively few, with only 18 days mandated for 2025, significantly lower than Japan and South Korea [3][30][108] - The service sector is a non-trade sector, and insufficient effective supply will constrain the recovery of service consumption more than that of goods consumption [4][49][109] - Employment in the service sector has decreased compared to historical trends, indicating an excess supply gap, particularly in life services such as education and entertainment [4][60][109] Group 3 - The lack of entrepreneur confidence is a significant constraint on service supply, with high industry costs and increased debt pressure contributing to this issue [6][110][111] - Investment in the service sector, especially in life services, has not kept pace with profitability, indicating a cautious investment behavior among entrepreneurs [6][90][110] - The shift in investment logic from proactive to reactive, driven by profitability, has led to a slowdown in investment growth, particularly in the health and education sectors [7][90][110]