2016年以来，港股与人民币的正相关关系较为显著；然而，近期人民币快速升值，港股却一度"踟蹰不 前"。股汇联动背后的逻辑、谁是谁的"影子"、未来可能的演绎？供参考。 一、热点思考：人民币与港股，谁是谁的"影子"？ （一）人民币汇率与港股的"羁绊"？正相关关系显著，但近期明显背离 历史回溯来看，人民币与港股有着显著的正相关关系； 但近期人民币快速升值，港股却仍走弱 。2016年 以来，港股与美元兑人民币的负相关系数高达-0.54；当人民币月涨幅超过1.5%时，恒生指数当月有 93.5%的概率上涨。然而，11月13日以来，人民币快速升值1.9%，恒生指数却下跌4.8%、与汇率显著背 离；这是2016年以来12次人民币升值中第3次出现的股汇背离。 人民币升值时，港股盈利、资产的重估效应与外资的回流，或是港股上涨的主因。 1）货币价值重估， 当人民币升值时，港股公司赚取的人民币利润折算成港币时会放大。2）资产重估效应，在港上市地产股 等底层资产以人民币计价，在升值时会面临价值重估。3）全球配置的比较效应，人民币汇率走强多指向 中国基本面具有一定相对优势，这会令全球投资者配置更多中国资产。 （二）人民币升值，港股缘何不 ...

文 | 赵伟、董易、王胜、陈达飞、 李欣越、 赵宇、王茂宇 联系人 | 李欣越、董易 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据： （一）大类资产：新年行情港股大涨，金银价格快速下跌 当周，发达市场股指涨跌互现、新兴市场股指多数上涨。发达市场股指方面，恒生指数、英国富时 100、德国DAX分别上涨2.0%、0.8%、0.7%，纳指、道琼斯工业平均、标普500分别下跌1.5%、1.3%、 1.0%；新兴市场股指方面，韩国综合指数、胡志明指数、开罗CASE30分别上涨4.4%、3.2%、1.4%，南非富 时指数、巴西IBOVESPA指数分别下跌1.1%、0.2%。 当周，美国标普500行业多数下跌。能源、公用事业、工业分别上涨3.3%、0.9%、0.5%，可选消费、信 息技术、金融分别下跌3.2%、1.5%、1.3%；欧元区行业多数上涨，科技、公用事业、能源分别上涨4.3%、 2.6%、2.0%，仅医疗保健下跌0.2%。 当周，恒生指数悉数上涨，行业方面涨跌互现。恒生科技、恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数分别上涨 4.3%、2.0%、2.8%。行业方面，能源、资讯科技、原材料分别上涨4.2%、3.8%、3.7%，必需性消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article promotes the "Shenwan Hongyuan Research Elite Training Camp," which aims to cultivate industry talents and provide opportunities for students to transition from academic to professional environments [2][8]. Group 1: Training Program Overview - The training camp is open for global recruitment and is free of charge, targeting students with master's degrees or higher, regardless of their major [2][14]. - The program offers a comprehensive curriculum that includes macroeconomic research methods, bond research methods, industry comparison research methods, and company financial analysis [10][11]. - Participants will have access to top-tier mentors, including industry executives and experts, enhancing their understanding of the capital markets [13]. Group 2: Program Structure and Timeline - The application deadline for the program is February 15, 2026, with the camp starting on March 7, 2026 [16]. - The training will include practical workshops, career counseling, and a final presentation where participants can showcase their skills to potential employers [16][19]. - The program has successfully transformed approximately 900 talents in previous sessions, helping them secure positions in leading industry institutions [19].

Key Points - The article emphasizes the importance of systematic and practical strategies in investment banking [2] - It discusses the positive economic outlook for early 2026, supported by improved PMI data and increased foreign capital inflow [8][9] - The article highlights the potential for a bull market in 2026, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in the manufacturing sector and increased asset allocation towards equities [9] - It identifies key themes for investment in the spring, including AI, commercial aerospace, and nuclear fusion, as well as the impact of government policies on consumption and investment [9] - The valuation analysis of A-shares shows that various indices are at different historical percentiles, indicating potential investment opportunities in certain sectors [12][13] - The article notes significant adjustments in precious metals due to changes in margin requirements at CME and differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [14] - It discusses the launch of national venture capital guiding funds and the global competition for future industries, including quantum technology and hydrogen energy [21]

Group 1 - The article introduces the "Shenwan Hongyuan Research Elite Training Camp," aimed at nurturing industry talents and providing a platform for professional growth in the capital market [2][8]. - The training camp is open to global recruitment, free of charge, and does not limit applicants by major, emphasizing strong faculty support and practical research opportunities [2][8]. - The program aims to enhance participants' understanding of the capital market, offering a comprehensive curriculum that includes core methodologies, financial analysis, and report writing [10][11]. Group 2 - Shenwan Hongyuan Research, established in 1992, is a comprehensive securities research consulting institution in mainland China, focusing on providing investment research services to global institutions [3][6]. - The research team consists of over 300 professionals, covering more than 1,000 key listed companies both domestically and internationally, and offering insights across various investment strategies and economic sectors [6][8]. - The training camp includes practical workshops, career counseling, and opportunities to interact with industry leaders, aiming to prepare participants for internships and employment in top-tier institutions [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a favorable economic outlook for the spring of 2025, supported by improved PMI data and a lack of significant downward risks, which may lead to a sustained bullish market trend [2][5]. Economic Indicators - The December 2025 PMI showed a seasonal improvement, with production, new orders, and new export orders all significantly better than seasonal averages, attributed to the later timing of the Spring Festival in 2026 and the pre-emptive nature of export orders [2][3]. - The absence of major economic downturn risks creates a continuous window for market performance, particularly as the A-share market is expected to see a positive start to the year [5]. Market Dynamics - Economic and industrial changes are slow variables, while capital supply and demand are fast variables, which will be more pronounced in the spring market. The influx of capital from insurance and foreign investments is anticipated to support the A-share market [5][8]. - The year-end surge in the CSI A500 ETF indicates a stable influx of marginal funds, which is expected to continue into the new year, enhancing market sentiment and broadening the profit-making effect across sectors [5][8]. Investment Opportunities - The spring season is identified as a critical time for potential investment opportunities, particularly in technology sectors and cyclical industries, with themes such as AI, commercial aerospace, and robotics gaining traction [9][10]. - The article suggests that the conditions for a comprehensive bull market in 2026 are gradually being established, driven by improvements in the manufacturing sector and increased foreign investment interest [8][9]. Sector Performance - The article highlights the performance of various sectors, noting that defense, machinery, and automotive sectors are showing continued profit expansion, while sectors like consumer goods and real estate are experiencing contraction [13]. - The relative strength of the ChiNext index compared to the CSI 300 indicates a shift in market dynamics, with a focus on high-performing stocks within the growth sectors [12]. ETF Trends - The article provides insights into the performance of various ETFs, noting significant changes in share volumes and price movements, which reflect broader market trends and investor sentiment [14].

Group 1 - The article highlights that COMEX silver has reached a historical high, with a weekly increase of 4.7% to $78.8 per ounce, while COMEX gold rose by 2.5% to $4546.2 per ounce [2][30][35] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4%, with most developed and emerging market indices also showing gains during the Christmas trading period [2][3][11] - The U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $801.5 billion, and the net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds fell, with a rolling net issuance of -$55.26 billion [2][43] Group 2 - The U.S. fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 is projected to be $1.77 trillion, down from $1.95 trillion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $7.79 trillion and total revenues at $4.8 trillion [48][80] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was reported at 4.3% (annualized), exceeding market expectations of 3.3%, driven primarily by strong consumer spending [61][80] - The article notes that the unemployment claims data indicates stability in the U.S. economy, with initial claims at 214,000 and continuing claims at 1.923 million, both figures reflecting market expectations [64][65] Group 3 - The article discusses the Federal Reserve's recent actions, indicating that a rate cut in January remains likely, despite strong GDP data, as the market's expectations for rate changes have not significantly shifted [57][61] - The article emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's recent expansion of its balance sheet through Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) marks a new phase in liquidity management, distinct from traditional quantitative easing (QE) [76][78] - The article concludes that the current economic conditions do not warrant a return to QE, as the Fed is likely to maintain a focus on interest rate adjustments rather than balance sheet expansion [79]

Core Viewpoint - The article promotes the "Shenwan Hongyuan Research Elite Training Camp," which aims to cultivate industry talents and provide opportunities for students to transition from academic to professional environments [2][8]. Group 1: Training Program Overview - The training camp is open to global recruitment and is free of charge, targeting students with a master's degree or higher, regardless of their major [2][14]. - The program includes a comprehensive curriculum designed to enhance understanding of the capital market, featuring professional training and direct interactions with industry leaders [8][10]. Group 2: Curriculum and Methodology - The curriculum covers various research methodologies, including macroeconomic research, bond research, industry comparison, and company financial analysis [11][12]. - Participants will engage in practical experiences that combine theoretical knowledge with real-world applications, facilitated by top industry experts [13]. Group 3: Application Process and Timeline - The application deadline is set for February 15, 2026, with the program commencing in March 2026 [16][17]. - The training will include career counseling, practical workshops, and a final presentation where participants can showcase their skills to potential employers [16]. Group 4: Impact and Success Stories - The program has previously witnessed the transformation of approximately 900 talented individuals, helping them secure positions in top-tier institutions [19].

Core Viewpoint - The "19th Sell-Side Analyst Crystal Ball Award" was announced, with Shenwan Hongyuan winning multiple awards, highlighting its strong position in the securities research industry [1][4]. Group 1: Awards and Recognition - Shenwan Hongyuan ranked third in the "Local Gold Medal Research Team" category and received fourth place in "Best Research Institution," "Most Influential Institution," and "Best Service Institution" categories [1]. - The awards included various categories, with the Basic Chemicals and North Exchange research teams winning first place, while several other teams received second and third places in their respective fields [1][3]. Group 2: Event Background - The "Sell-Side Analyst Crystal Ball Award" was initiated by the Securities Market Weekly in 2007, aiming to identify the best securities research institutions and analysts in China, thus promoting the healthy development of the local capital market [4]. - This year's event saw participation from 827 research teams across 43 research institutions competing for 37 research-related awards, ensuring the fairness and accuracy of the voting process [4]. Group 3: Company Profile - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Research was established in 1992 and is one of the earliest and largest independent securities research consulting institutions in mainland China, with a research team of over 300 people [4]. - The company focuses on research related to over a thousand key listed companies both domestically and internationally, covering various fields including macroeconomics, industry analysis, investment strategies, and policy research [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's initiation of the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) after the December 2025 FOMC meeting signals the end of the QE era rather than a restart, despite both leading to an expansion of the Fed's balance sheet. The RMP and QE have fundamental differences in policy and market implications [2][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Expansion - The Federal Reserve announced a restart of balance sheet expansion at the December FOMC meeting, with the pace slightly exceeding expectations, aligning with liquidity management needs. By the end of 2025, reserves may have fallen to ample levels, necessitating early expansion to accommodate economic growth and seasonal demand fluctuations [3][8][14]. - The RMP is a new phase of "normalization" in balance sheet expansion, with two methods of providing reserves: RMP and reinvestment of agency securities. The RMP will start at a scale of $40 billion per month, expected to remain high until April 2026, then slow to an average of $20-25 billion per month [3][18][69]. Group 2: Nature of RMP - The RMP is a technical operation aimed at assisting the effective implementation of monetary policy without altering the Fed's policy stance. It primarily refers to interest rate policy, allowing market rates to fluctuate narrowly around the policy rate without frequent open market operations [4][41][69]. - RMP and QE both lead to balance sheet expansion but differ fundamentally. While they have similar quantitative impacts on the Fed's and commercial banks' balance sheets, they differ qualitatively. RMP is a conventional liquidity management operation, while QE is a broad "yield curve management" tool [4][65][69]. Group 3: Conclusion on QE - QE is not likely to restart until interest rates are lowered to near zero, as this is the inherent order of monetary easing. Not all balance sheet expansions are classified as QE; the precondition for QE is that monetary policy faces a zero lower bound constraint [5][71]. - Historical instances of QE-style expansions by the Fed occurred only after interest rates were lowered to zero or near zero, including during the Great Depression, post-World War II, after the 2008 financial crisis, and following the 2020 pandemic [5][47][71].