以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 一、小波段调整到什么阶段了？总体赚钱效应、成长相对价值的赚钱效应回落至历史中高位。短期低性价比不再极端，快速回调阶段已经过去， 反弹随时发生，但后续可能还有确认震荡区间下限的过程。 小波段调整到什么阶段了？从量化情绪指标看，总体赚钱效应、成长相对价值的赚钱效应均已回落至历史中高位。浮盈偏高、过度交易、拥挤交 易的问题短期也有所缓和。短期低性价比不再极端，但性价比改善也尚不充分。快速回调阶段可能已经过去，但基于市场自身力量的反弹力量仍 有限。这个阶段，有效反弹需要新催化、新亮点再打开市场向上空间。美股反弹，A股科技也会反弹，但后续可能还有确认震荡区间下限的过 程。 二、中波段定位不变：2026年开门红行情是2025年结构性行情的拓展和延伸，当前仍处于第一阶段上涨行情高位区域。当主线板块静态估值提升 至历史高位后，抢跑远期基本面改善的行情阻力增加，市场开启中期震荡行情符合历史规律。等待产业趋势再进一步 + 缓和性价比问题，开启二 阶段上涨行情。只要震荡区间下限探明，基于中期机会做配置的窗口就会打开，而这更可能是一个可以从容配 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a transition from a strong momentum phase to a high-level consolidation phase, with the "steady and far-reaching" policy supporting this shift. The market's internal strength is gradually declining, indicating a need for time to digest valuations and performance [2][6]. Short-term Market Positioning - The short-term market has reached historical high levels, with the A-share floating profit also retreating from these highs. The average holding period remains at historically low levels, indicating excessive trading behavior. The technology sectors that initially led the market have seen a reduction in attractiveness, while cyclical sectors are also experiencing a decline in internal stability [3][5]. Long-term Market Positioning - The opening red market is an extension of the structural market of 2025, with expectations of a mid-term fundamental upcycle. However, as valuations reach historical highs, the market faces increased resistance, necessitating a transition from upward to consolidation phases. This requires time for performance to catch up with valuations [5][21]. Market Characteristics at High Valuation Levels - Four key characteristics of the market at high valuation levels include: 1. Increased difficulty in raising valuations. 2. Stricter conditions for upward breakthroughs, requiring new performance drivers. 3. High sensitivity to liquidity shocks, which could trigger adjustments from upper to lower consolidation ranges. 4. The need for "perfect performance validation" to avoid downward adjustments [21][22]. Sector Performance Insights - Various sectors, including communication, electronics, defense, and basic chemicals, have reached historical high valuation levels. The overall PE valuation of A-shares is also at historical highs, indicating a need for performance to catch up with these valuations [5][23]. Policy Impact - The "steady and far-reaching" policy is expected to accelerate the market's transition to the next phase, characterized by style switching and profit expansion, followed by a period of consolidation. This policy is likely to influence the performance of heavyweight stocks that have been under pressure [24][22].

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 1 . 2 6 - 2 . 1 周度研究成果 申 万 宏 源 策 略 研 究 团 队 目录 一周回顾 1、【大势研判】 开启区间震荡行情——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(26/01/26-26/01/31) 2、【行业比较】 A股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报——行业比较周跟踪（20260124-20260130） 3、【资产配置】 联储换帅金银巨震，静待波动率回到低位——全球资产配置每周聚焦(20260123-20260130) 4、【主题投资】 双重码降低量子纠错开销，风电直连提升制氢效率——未来产业周报第7期（2026/1/18-2026/1/24） 专题研究 1、 特朗普引领下的美国战略方向在哪？——2026年美国《国家安全战略》解读 电话会议 一周回顾 【大势研判】开启区间震荡行情——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(26/01/26- 1 26/01/31) 一周回顾 2026.1.31 一、开门红行情至今的波段定位： 小波段，科技和周期先后演绎强动量行情，赚钱效应扩散已趋于充分，"行稳致远"政策持续，短期市场力量本身就在逐 ...

申万宏源证券执 董事长 申万宏源研究党委书 周'海氣同 政帅黄浦区第三届委员会常务委员 ...

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强 耿佩璇 行业：12月个别行业利润走强对本月利润的拉动较大，背后或与其他收益等短期指标改善有关，也与8月行业层面的利润表现相似。 12月，有色加工、煤炭 采选等行业利润大幅回升，单个行业利润拉动整体利润回升5.7、4个百分点至5.4%、1.8%。从影响因素看，上述行业的营业收入、成本压力并未出现"超 额"变化，也侧面体现出其他收益等对利润拉动或较大。类似地，8月酒和饮料利润拉动整体工企利润上行7.8个百分点至7.6%。 成本：12月工业企业成本压力小幅改善，石化链、冶金链成本率低于去年同期。 12月，工业企业成本率回落至83.6%、基本持平去年同期。结构上，石化 链、冶金链成本压力改善幅度较大，成本率分别回落至84.3%、84.5%、低于去年同期。细分行业看，有色压延、石油煤炭加工、金属制品等行业成本率均有 回落，环比分别-3.2%、-1.8%、-1.8%。 营收：12月工企营收则有回落，结构上三大产业链营收均有下行。 12月，剔除价格后的实际营收增速有所回落，当月同比回落3.9个百分点至-2.1%，对利润 同比的拉动回落3.3个百分点至-1.9%。分产业链看，石化链、冶金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "steady and far-reaching" strategy is driving the transition of the spring market into subsequent phases, but it has not disrupted the established path of the spring market rally [2][3]. Group 1: Spring Market Dynamics - The spring market is characterized by incremental speculation, supported by factors such as the pre-New Year surge in the CSI A500 ETF, post-New Year insurance market optimism, and foreign capital inflows [3]. - The market is expected to maintain a favorable environment for bullish positions, with a complete rotation of sectors and a broadening of profit effects [3]. - Short-term, the focus is on identifying bottom assets, with cyclical Alpha investments expanding towards more cyclical turning points [2][3]. Group 2: Market Positioning and Future Outlook - The spring market is seen as an extension of the high valuation phase leading to a structural technology market expected in 2025, with a likely consolidation phase following the spring rally [4]. - The market is anticipated to face increasing resistance as the overall profit effect approaches high levels, limiting the time and space for the post-New Year rally [3][4]. - The cyclical Alpha is becoming a key focus for identifying low-position opportunities, with sectors like commercial aerospace and AI applications showing potential for rebounds [5][8]. Group 3: Sector Performance and Investment Opportunities - The current market is concentrating on low-position sectors, with cyclical Alpha (such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals) expanding towards cyclical turning points [5][8]. - Notable sectors for potential rebounds include commercial aerospace and AI applications, while sectors with relatively low profit effects like high-dividend stocks and pharmaceuticals are expected to see rotation and catch-up [8]. - Long-term investment themes remain focused on technology and cyclical Alpha, with specific attention on sectors like semiconductor, energy storage, and commercial aerospace [8].

Market Overview - The spring market is progressing along a predetermined path, with a basis for a perfect spring market performance and a broadening profit effect. However, the overall profit effect is nearing a high point, limiting future time and space for growth [5][6]. - The spring market is positioned as an extension of the high-level technological structural market in 2025, with a likely adjustment phase following its conclusion. This phase will focus on waiting for clearer industrial trends and performance digestion [5][6]. Industry Comparison - As of January 23, 2026, the A-share market valuation shows the following: - CSI All Share (excluding ST) PE at 22.7x, PB at 1.9x, at historical percentiles of 83% and 52% respectively - CSI 500 PE at 38.9x, PB at 2.7x, at historical percentiles of 71% and 63% respectively - The ChiNext Index PE at 43x, PB at 5.8x, at historical percentiles of 42% and 68% respectively [9][10]. - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include real estate, automation equipment, and semiconductor electronics, while industries below the 15th percentile include aquaculture and white goods [9][10]. Asset Allocation - Since 2000, the RMB has experienced six rounds of appreciation and four rounds of depreciation, influenced by currency reforms and global trade cycles. During RMB appreciation, stocks have shown a higher stability in performance compared to bonds and commodities [12][13]. Thematic Investment - The Hefei Nuclear Fusion Conference set a target for 2030 power generation, highlighting advancements in quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen energy, and brain-computer interfaces [14][15]. - In Q4 2025, active equity funds increased allocations to technology manufacturing and cyclical sectors, while reducing exposure to real estate and certain segments of the TMT sector [15][16]. Global Economic Insights - The 2026 Davos Forum highlighted key speeches from global leaders, focusing on economic recovery and international cooperation [17]. - Recent increases in long-term interest rates in developed countries have led to global market fluctuations, with implications for risk assets and investment strategies [18][19]. Gold Market Analysis - The upward trend in gold prices is expected to continue, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions. Short-term market sentiment may fluctuate based on these events [20][22].

Group 1: Market Overview - The spring market is characterized by continuous opportunities for long positions, with a significant increase in risk appetite. There are no major downside risks, only potential short-term corrections after market rallies, suggesting that overall profit-making effects may continue to spread to higher levels [6] - The spring theme remains focused on industrial sectors such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and nuclear fusion, which are expected to yield the strongest profit-making effects. The A-share pricing in the primary market is at a turning point, with venture capital and investments in unlisted tech leaders showing high elasticity [7] Group 2: Industry Comparison - As of January 9, 2026, the valuation of A-shares shows that the CSI All Share (excluding ST) has a PE of 22.4x and a PB of 1.9x, which are at the 83rd and 49th historical percentiles, respectively. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 has a PE of 12x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 65th and 45th percentiles [10] - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th historical percentile include real estate, automation equipment, retail, chemical pharmaceuticals, and electronics. Meanwhile, industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include defense and military, electronics (semiconductors), and communications [10] Group 3: Asset Allocation - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, and expectations of fiscal and monetary easing are supporting the rise of precious metals. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in Iran and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil are expected to lead to significant increases in oil prices [11] Group 4: Thematic Investment - The commercialization of brain-machine interfaces is accelerating, with significant events expected in 2026, such as mass production of brain-machine interface devices and the launch of humanoid robot production lines [12][14] - Key catalytic time nodes for six future industries have been identified, providing investors with reference points for tracking developments in quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen energy, and 6G technology [13][17] Group 5: Service Industry Insights - The service industry in China is increasingly integrating technology, with strong companies emerging in sectors such as fintech, logistics, enterprise services, and healthcare. These companies leverage innovation, technology empowerment, and ecosystem integration to achieve leading positions in the global market [15] - Various countries have adopted different core models and policies to support their service industries, such as the U.S. focusing on innovation-driven models and Germany emphasizing manufacturing-service integration [16] Group 6: Stock Buybacks and Dividends - In December, the total amount of stock buybacks and increases in shareholding decreased by 31% month-on-month, primarily due to a 70% drop in the amount of increase applications. However, the implementation of buybacks in A-shares saw a significant increase of 97% [22]

Global Market Overview - The US labor market remains resilient, with expectations of fiscal and monetary easing supporting precious metals during the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing phase. Geopolitical tensions in Iran and increased sanctions on Russian oil are expected to drive oil prices significantly higher [2][9]. - In fixed income, the 10-year US Treasury yield recorded 4.18%, down 1 basis point this week, while the US dollar index rose by 0.69% to 99.1. [2][9]. - In equity markets, South Korea, Vietnam, and Germany saw significant stock market gains, while the A-share index, excluding Hong Kong, rose across the board, with the Sci-Tech 50, CSI 1000, and North Star 50 indices leading in gains. Conversely, Argentina and India experienced notable declines [2][9]. - In commodities, gold prices increased by 3.68%, and geopolitical risks led to a 3.74% rise in oil prices this week [2][9]. Focus on US Stock-Bond Correlation - The long-term correlation between US stocks and bonds has turned negative, relying on sustained low inflation. Since 2025, the correlation has shown a slight decline from high levels. If oil prices remain low, US inflation is expected to stay low in 2026, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain room for rate cuts. The rolling three-year correlation between US stocks and bonds is anticipated to continue declining, improving the hedging effect of bonds against stocks [2][14]. - However, geopolitical factors, such as escalating tensions in the Middle East and new sanctions on Russian oil, could lead to a significant rise in oil prices, potentially keeping the stock-bond correlation high and undermining the hedging effectiveness of bonds [2][14]. Global Fund Flows - In the past week, global funds saw a significant outflow of $12.07 billion from US equity funds, while $14.18 billion flowed into US fixed income funds. Additionally, there was a continued inflow of funds into the Chinese stock market. Notably, there was a significant outflow from Chinese fixed income funds, with a marked inflow into the FTSE 3x Short China ETF [3]. Valuation Metrics - As of January 9, 2026, the valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded that of the S&P 500 and France's CAC 40, reaching 93.2% of the past decade's levels. However, in absolute terms, the valuations of the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index remain significantly lower than those of US stocks [4][22]. - From an ERP perspective, the ERP percentiles for Brazil's São Paulo, CSI 300, and the Shanghai Composite remain high, indicating that the Chinese stock market still offers good allocation value compared to global markets [4][22]. Risk-Adjusted Returns - As of January 9, 2026, the risk-adjusted return percentiles for the S&P 500 rose to 60%, while the Nasdaq's risk-adjusted return percentile increased from 37% to 46%. The CSI 300's risk-adjusted return percentile decreased from 94% to 91%. The risk-adjusted return percentile for GSCI precious metals remains at 100% [24][22]. Market Sentiment Indicators - In the US market, the S&P 500 is above its 20-day moving average, with a decrease in the put-call ratio compared to the previous week. In the A-share market, the options market shows a significant increase in positions for the 4750-5000 range of the CSI 300, alongside a notable rise in implied volatility, indicating that the market is pricing in an upward trend for A-shares [26][36].

Core Viewpoint - The spring market is characterized by a continuous favorable time window for bullish investments, with a significant increase in risk appetite and no major downside risks anticipated [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The spring season is expected to see a sustained increase in market participation, driven by factors such as ETF inflows, insurance sector performance, and foreign capital repatriation [3]. - The absence of major economic downturn risks in January creates a typical favorable time window for investments, with February and March presenting additional opportunities for market rebounds and policy catalysts [3]. - The current overall profit-making effect in the A-share market is slightly above the historical median, indicating room for further expansion in profit-making opportunities [3]. Group 2: Investment Themes - Industry themes such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and nuclear fusion are identified as having the strongest profit-making potential, with venture capital financing marking a turning point for pricing in the primary market [8]. - The insurance and brokerage sectors are already realizing their potential due to mid-term bull market expectations, while policy themes related to consumer services and Hainan are expected to provide rotation clues [8]. - The AI industry chain is currently viewed as having weaker beta, with short-term opportunities primarily arising from thematic cues in the TMT sector [8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Indicators - The sentiment indicators show a strong upward momentum, with the overall A-share market demonstrating a positive trend in profit-making effects across various sectors [10][11]. - Specific sectors such as defense, non-ferrous metals, and electronics are experiencing significant profit-making effect expansions, with percentages indicating continued growth [11][12]. - The market is expected to enter a phase of policy and technological validation in the second quarter of 2026, with a potential confirmation of a new trading range for A-shares [3][8].