聚焦"十五五"战略目标 全面提升金融服务效能（二） 杨成长、龚 芳、方思元 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出，要"构建统一、 开放、竞争、有序的市场体系，建设法治经济、信用经济"，这标志着信用市场在市场经济体制 机制改革及全国统一大市场建设中的重要性进一步提升。 加快健全信用体系和信用市场建设不仅是提升市场运行效率、优化营商环境的现实需要，更 是实现"十五五"规划战略目标的重要保障。近年来，受益于推进全国统一大市场建设及数字经济 的快速发展，我国已具备建设统一信用市场的良好基础。 "十五五"时期，应依托全国统一大市场建设，加快推进全国信用市场一体化进程：一要从理 念上重视全国统一信用市场的建设；二要加快构建高标准信用基础设施体系；三要全面提升中介 机构的信用评估定价能力；四要提升市场经营主体的信用经营能力。 近年来，我国高度重视全国统一大市场建设，推动各类资源要素在更大范围内顺畅流动、优 化配置。《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称"十五 五"规划建议）提出，要"构建统一、开放、竞争、有序的市场体系，建设法治经济、信用经 济"。 健全的信用体系 ...

11月18日，中国上市公司协会第三届理事会第六次会议在北京召开。中国证监会党委委员、副主席李超 出席并致辞。中国上市公司协会会长宋志平发表讲话，党委书记魏峰主持会议。中国证监会公众司、上 市司、上海证券交易所、深圳证券交易所、北京证券交易所及中国结算等相关系统单位负责人、中国上 市公司协会副会长、副监事长、常务理事、理事、监事单位会员代表，共计600余人参加了会议。 李超在讲话时指出，上市公司是资本市场之基。近年来，证监会坚持市场化、法治化，严格把好入口关 和出口关，强化上市公司监管，持续净化市场生态。特别是新"国九条"和资本市场"1+N"政策体系发布 实施以来，证监会紧扣防风险、强监管、促高质量发展的主线，坚持信息披露和公司治理双轮驱动，加 强基础制度建设，开展打击财务造假专项行动，以优制度、严监管、治乱象、净生态护航上市公司高质 量发展。上市公司实体经济"基本盘"地位更加彰显，新质生产力的"生力军"队伍持续壮大，履行社会责 任的"示范者"作用日益深化，公司治理"担当者"基础不断夯实。 中国证监会党委委员、副主席 李超 李超表示，党的二十届四中全会把推动高质量发展作为"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主题，明确提 ...

Core Viewpoints - The conference themed "Riding the Momentum" focused on the new elements, new systems, and new services in China's economy and capital markets, emphasizing the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan for investment opportunities [4][5]. Group 1: Economic and Market Insights - The new element system is expected to activate new growth engines, with the 14th Five-Year Plan highlighting the significance of technological innovation and breakthroughs [5]. - The new institutional framework is reshaping the capital market landscape, with an emphasis on the combination of effective markets and proactive government roles, enhancing the capital market's position within the financial system [5]. - The new service system aims to create new investment tools, with Shenyuan Hongyuan accelerating organizational and business reforms to provide innovative products and services that meet the needs of enterprises and investors [5]. Group 2: Conference Structure and Participation - The conference included one main forum and twelve sub-forums covering various fields such as asset allocation, high-end manufacturing, artificial intelligence, consumption, and cycles, facilitating collaboration among business lines [7]. - Over 50 political figures, experts, and executives from more than 500 listed companies participated, resulting in over 800 offline exchanges with approximately 2,000 investors to discuss economic dynamics and market trends [7]. - The research institute provided in-depth interpretations of the 2026 economic and capital market trends, proposing core viewpoints such as "seeking dividends from reform," "two-phase market rally," and "finding opportunities amid fluctuations" [7]. Group 3: Technological Innovations and Strategic Initiatives - The launch of the "Shenxiang Custody Operation Service Platform" marked a significant upgrade in Shenyuan Hongyuan's custody operation business, driven by technological innovation [9]. - The AI industry development session gathered over 200 representatives from leading AI companies and investment institutions, aiming to help enterprises seize opportunities in the new round of global technological competition [9]. - As a central enterprise securities firm, Shenyuan Hongyuan is committed to serving national strategies and enhancing its comprehensive financial service system, which integrates research, investment, and investment banking [9].

Group 1 - The article highlights three significant changes in the domestic economic environment: the rapid retreat of the "scar effect," the weakening impact of tariff conflicts on the economy, and the gradual formation of a new phase of "supply-side reform" framework [2][8][21] - The "scar effect" is reflected in the improvement of consumer behavior and the rapid decline in accounts receivable growth among enterprises, indicating a recovery in economic confidence [15][16] - The article emphasizes the need for a rational understanding of the "macro-micro temperature difference," which has become a norm since 2022, affecting the economic transformation process in China [8][37] Group 2 - The year 2026 is positioned as a critical year for comprehensive reform and development, with an emphasis on accelerating reform processes to seize significant opportunities [3][67] - The article suggests that economic growth will require maintaining a basic growth rate and emphasizes the importance of advanced manufacturing and service industry development [3][74] - Key areas for investment opportunities include the construction of a unified market, reforms related to social welfare, and accelerating green transformation [3][83][84] Group 3 - The article predicts a non-typical economic recovery driven by internal demand policies, which will help improve consumer confidence and investment growth [4][5] - External demand remains resilient, with a shift in export structure towards high-value-added products, indicating a strong competitive advantage [5][21] - The overall economic recovery is expected to follow a "front low and back high" rhythm, supported by the retreat of the "scar effect" and ongoing internal demand policies [5][55]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing financial service efficiency to achieve the "15th Five-Year Plan" strategic goals, highlighting the need for deepening financial system reforms and improving support for the real economy [3][5][7]. Group 1: Financial Role in Economic Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for achieving socialist modernization and promoting high-quality financial development [5][6]. - Financial services must play a key role in supporting technological innovation and the development of new productive forces, requiring better resource allocation in capital markets [7][8]. - The financial system needs to continue reforms to address structural contradictions in funding and project financing, ensuring effective capital conversion [4][8]. Group 2: Achievements During the "14th Five-Year Plan" - Significant progress was made in the financial system, including improvements in the financial institutional framework and market scale, with China becoming the world's largest credit market by September 2025 [9][10]. - The direct financing ratio increased to 31.6%, and the asset management scale of various institutions grew by 35% compared to the end of 2020 [9][10]. - Financial institutions have enhanced their service capabilities, particularly in supporting technological innovation and green transformation [11][12]. Group 3: Five Breakthroughs for the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The article outlines five key breakthroughs needed to enhance financial service efficiency: building a national credit market, improving service capabilities for new factors, enhancing services for new industries and business models, increasing overall service adaptability, and forming a correct understanding of financial services for the real economy [13][14][17]. Group 4: Building a National Credit Market - A national credit market is essential for the financial system and the unified market, requiring improvements in credit data collection and sharing [14][15]. - Financial institutions need to enhance their credit rating and assessment capabilities to better support small and medium-sized enterprises [16][17]. Group 5: Enhancing Services for New Factors - Financial institutions must adapt to the shift towards new asset forms, such as data and technology, and improve their service capabilities accordingly [17][18]. - There is a need for a comprehensive valuation system for new asset types, focusing on technology and data-driven industries [19][20]. Group 6: Adapting to New Industries and Business Models - The financial sector must innovate its service offerings to meet the demands of new consumption patterns and technological advancements [20][21]. - Financial institutions should focus on providing integrated financial services that align with the characteristics of new industries and business models [22][23]. Group 7: Overall Service Integration and Adaptability - Financial products need to be more integrated and adaptable to meet the diverse needs of enterprises, particularly in terms of financing options [22][23]. - Collaboration among financial institutions is essential to create a more cohesive service environment that supports various financing needs [23][24]. Group 8: Correct Understanding of Financial Services - There is a need for a correct understanding of the relationship between finance and the real economy, emphasizing that finance should serve the real economy effectively [24][25]. - Financial institutions must balance profitability with their role in supporting national strategic goals and local economic needs [24].

Core Viewpoints - The inflation rebound in October is primarily driven by factors other than the anti-involution effect, with significant contributions from commodity price increases [2][60] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% previously, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement from -2.3% [9][59] Factors Influencing Inflation - **Factor One**: The anti-involution effect has led to an increase in coal prices, but its impact on downstream PPI is limited. In October, PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year improvement of 0.2 percentage points to -2.1%. The significant rise in copper prices, which increased by 7% month-on-month, was a major contributor to the PPI increase [2][10][60] - **Factor Two**: The CPI's rise above zero is attributed to a low base and reduced supply in certain food categories, which pushed food CPI up. The year-on-year food CPI improved by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9%, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing increases of 6.4 and 2.2 percentage points, respectively [2][17][61] - **Factor Three**: Core CPI continued to rise, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices. In October, core CPI increased to 1.2% year-on-year, with significant price increases in accommodation, airfares, and tourism due to the overlapping National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [3][24][61] Future Outlook - The price increases in bulk commodities are expected to continue influencing inflation, but the anti-involution effect on downstream prices may take time to manifest. It is anticipated that the PPI will remain around -2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, while the CPI's year-on-year increase may be limited due to the tapering of national subsidies and slow recovery in downstream PPI [4][37][62] Regular Tracking - The CPI showed a rebound, with contributions from both food and non-food items. In October, the CPI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 0.2% year-on-year, with food CPI at -2.9%, reflecting a 1.5 percentage point increase from the previous month [5][43][63] - Non-food consumer goods saw a decline in CPI for household appliances and communication tools, with respective decreases of 0.5 percentage points to 5.0% and 0.3 percentage points to 1.2% [5][48][63] - Overall service CPI increased, with core service CPI performing better than seasonal trends, rising by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% year-on-year [7][52][63]

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the report emphasizes the need for strategic determination and confidence in the face of external uncertainties and challenges to the international economic and trade order, while also highlighting the importance of consolidating the foundation for domestic economic recovery [2][20]. Economic Situation Analysis - The report indicates that external uncertainties have increased, with the international economic growth momentum described as "insufficient" compared to the previous quarter's "weakened" assessment, reflecting heightened concerns about global economic prospects [2][20]. - Domestically, while risks and challenges remain, there is a new emphasis on the need to strengthen the foundation for economic recovery, indicating a commitment to achieving annual economic growth targets despite some slowing in economic indicators [20][21]. Policy Tone - The monetary policy tone has shifted from "implementing detailed and appropriate monetary policy" to "implementing effective monetary policy," focusing on the ultimate effectiveness of policies rather than just their execution [3][21]. - The report introduces a comprehensive approach to maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions, emphasizing the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, particularly in the context of government bond issuance [3][21]. Monetary Policy Operations - The report highlights the need to maintain liquidity and ensure that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [7][21]. - It stresses the importance of structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [7][21]. Exchange Rate and Risk Prevention - The report reiterates the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility and has removed previous mentions of preventing fund circularity, suggesting that related risks may have been controlled [3][22]. - The focus has shifted to strengthening expectations guidance and maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level [7][22]. Hot Topics - The report discusses the importance of understanding financial aggregate indicators, noting that the growth of social financing and money supply is generally aligned with nominal economic growth, while also acknowledging the natural decline in financial aggregate growth due to the larger base [8][23]. - It emphasizes maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to support banks' net interest margins and enhance the counter-cyclical adjustment space for monetary policy [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the overall improvement in industrial production, with specific sectors showing varying performance, particularly in steel and construction industries [1][11][21]. Industrial Production - The blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 84.7%, remaining stable year-on-year [1][4]. - Apparent steel consumption rose by 2% week-on-week, with a narrowing year-on-year decline of 3.8 percentage points to -0.1% [1][6]. - Social inventory continued to decline, down 2.3% week-on-week [1]. Chemical and Textile Industries - The soda ash operating rate remained stable at 84.9%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to -2.2% [11][12]. - PTA operating rate increased by 0.4% week-on-week to 76.0%, with a year-on-year improvement of 1.3 percentage points to -4.8% [11][14]. - The operating rate for polyester filament remained stable at 91%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [11]. Construction Industry - Cement production and demand were below last year's levels, with the nationwide grinding operating rate increasing by 1.6% week-on-week to 45.4% [21][22]. - Cement shipment rates remained stable at 44.8%, with a year-on-year decline of 9.3% [21][24]. - Cement inventory ratio slightly increased, up 1.2% week-on-week [21]. Glass and Asphalt Production - Glass production remained stable week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.6% [31]. - Asphalt operating rate increased by 1.5% week-on-week [31]. Demand Tracking - National commodity housing transactions decreased, primarily due to significant declines in second-tier cities, with a daily average transaction area down 5.7% week-on-week [40]. - National road freight volume increased year-on-year, with rail freight volume up 1.8 percentage points to 1.5% [44][49]. - Passenger car retail sales decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 0.7% to 25.4% [59]. Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally fell, with vegetable prices rising by 4.3% week-on-week [74]. - Industrial product prices showed an overall upward trend, with the South China Industrial Price Index increasing by 0.4% week-on-week [82][83].

Core Viewpoint - In September, industrial profits showed a weak performance compared to previous years when adjusted for low base effects, with current cost rates remaining at historically high levels [2][8]. Overall Performance - In September, industrial profits continued to rise due to short-term factors such as expenses, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points to 22.5% under low base conditions. However, on a two-year compound basis, profit growth fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9%, and the month-on-month profit increase was only 1.1%, significantly lower than the same period last year (11.3%) [2][8]. - The profit margin increased year-on-year, primarily driven by short-term indicators like expense ratios, which rose by 9.5 percentage points to 11.6% [2][8]. Revenue Analysis - In September, industrial revenue improved, with nominal revenue rising due to marginal improvements in the Producer Price Index (PPI). The actual revenue growth rate, adjusted for price changes, increased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.4%, contributing an additional 0.3 percentage points to the year-on-year profit growth [2][16]. - Revenue growth varied across industrial chains, with the consumer chain showing a notable increase of 2.2 percentage points to 8.1%, while the petrochemical and metallurgy chains also saw improvements [2][16]. Cost Structure - Industrial enterprises faced increasing cost pressures in September, with cost rates for the metallurgy and consumer chains at historically high levels, indicating that the effects of anti-involution policies are yet to be realized. The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.4%, remaining relatively high compared to previous years [3][22]. - The cost contribution to year-on-year profit growth decreased by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% [3][22]. Industry Insights - Industries with significant profit improvements were primarily influenced by revenue and expenses, despite ongoing cost pressures. Notable profit recoveries were observed in the computer communication and automotive sectors, contributing 3.5 and 2.8 percentage points to overall profit, respectively [3][33]. - Other sectors such as general equipment, non-metallic products, and rubber and plastics also contributed positively to profit growth, while the beverage industry saw a significant decline in profit growth [3][33]. Future Outlook - Industrial enterprises are expected to continue facing substantial cost pressures, with the effectiveness of anti-involution policies still to be seen. The current profit pressures are largely attributed to rigid cost increases driven by downstream investment [4][48]. - Future policies aimed at stabilizing growth in sectors like construction materials and steel are anticipated to gradually alleviate cost pressures, alongside a recovery in domestic demand [4][48].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in fixed asset investment growth across various sectors, reaching historical lows in the second half of 2025, with a notable drop of 9.1 percentage points to -6.5% by September, marking the lowest point in five years [1][10][19] - Investment in broad infrastructure, services, real estate, and manufacturing has all seen substantial declines, with respective drops of 13.1, 11.1, 9.3, and 9.1 percentage points, leading to negative growth rates of -3.3%, -6.6%, -21.2%, and -1.5% [1][10][19] - The decline in investment is attributed to several factors, including accelerated debt resolution efforts that have occupied investment funds, with over half of the investment decline explained by this issue [2][29] Group 2 - The construction and installation investment has decreased significantly, contributing to the overall decline in fixed asset investment, with a drop of 16.4 percentage points to -15.7% by September [2][19] - The eastern region has experienced a more pronounced decline in construction and installation investment compared to central and western regions, with cumulative declines of 3.9, 3, and 2.3 percentage points respectively [2][19] - The article identifies that the push for debt resolution has led to a requirement for enterprises to expedite the repayment of debts, further impacting investment negatively [3][40] Group 3 - The lack of new projects is also affecting current investment levels, with renovation projects maintaining high growth while new construction investments have significantly declined [4][44] - The article notes that the yield rates for investments in transportation, public utilities, and environmental management have fallen into negative territory, indicating poor returns on investment in these sectors [4][44] - Recent fiscal measures have been implemented to alleviate the pressure on investment caused by debt resolution, including the allocation of 500 billion yuan for local projects aimed at addressing debt issues [6][66] Group 4 - The article discusses the potential for policy optimization to improve corporate financial health, as high accounts receivable ratios have been noted, particularly among private enterprises [5][53] - The reduction in accounts receivable growth rates for both joint-stock and private enterprises suggests a potential recovery in cash flow, which could support investment revitalization [5][59] - Historical precedents indicate that effective debt repayment policies can lead to significant improvements in corporate investment activity, as seen in past government initiatives [5][60]