申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 一、反内卷需要区分"去资本开支""去产能""去产量"：本轮反内卷政策加码会强化"去资本开 支"趋势，使得2026年中开始的供需格局拐点更确定，更持续。"去产能"主要体现为，资本开 支回落滞后影响 + 已有项目放弃投产 + 引导存量企业优胜劣汰。"去产能"的影响是慢变量， 将反映为长期盈利能力中枢的抬升。类似2016年"去产量"的影响是快变量，构成短期价格上涨 的必要条件，本轮不易也不宜推动严厉的"去产量"。 反内卷政策加码，唤醒了市场对2016-17年的供给侧的记忆。我们认为，2016-17年供给侧改革 经验，可以拆解成三个核心要素：一是"去产能"，包括淘汰落后产能，也包括抑制新增资本开 支，使得远期产能形成下降。"去产能"的影响是长期的，2022年之前以煤炭为代表的周期品盈 利能力总体维持高位，主要源自于"去产能"的影响。二是"去产量"，通过一般产能关停、限 产，使得国内周期品供需格局快速改善。在彼时周期行业产能利用率处于相对低位的情况下， 若不实施"去产量"，产能增速回落，但产量增速仍能与需求增速匹配(这会体现为产能利用率 的缓慢回升)，需求和产量仍是宽平衡状态， ...

我们强调体系性、实战性 以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 目录 ，预期的10.6万人，ISM非制造业PMI指数为50.8高于预期的50.6。受此影响，本周美国股市涨幅居前。 专题研究 面深入的认识，逐渐形成了"反内卷"的清晰路线图。 清效率不足的企业，恢复供需平衡。 政策见效需要时间，但对症下药后，无需怀疑最终效果。企业利润回升，推动牛市进程，港股周期重估空间更大。 一周回顾 更持续。 "去产能"主要体现为，资本开支回落滞后影响 + 已有项目放弃投产 + 引导存量企业优胜劣汰。"去产能"的影响是慢变量，将反映为长期盈利能力中枢的抬升。类似 2016 年"去 近期A股强势提示市场更多关注长期积极因素，但也要承认，当下的基本面预期和赚钱效应累积还不是牛市级别。我们的大势研判观点不变：2026-27年是牛市的核心区间，25Q4指数 开始显现，互联网平台资本开支可能迎来改善，构成国内AI算力产业链的股价驱动力。反内卷的结构，短期市场关注度高的方向是电力设备、钢铁和建材；而 2026 年中游制造供需格 PB均在历史15%分位以下的行业：农林牧渔、医疗服务。 电话会议 长, == ll _ ...

来自报告 《 磨底未竟，转折已萌——房地产行业2025年中期投资策略 》 图表：广义的好房子定义 资料来源：住建部、申万宏源研究 以美国经验为鉴，在房地产危机之后，行业经历供给改革，企业进行模式优化，产品力及 库存管理能力强的优质房企穿越周期。 资料来源： Wind 、申万宏源研究 图表：房地产危机前后美国四大房企的杜邦分析 展望中国，预计未来能够缔造好房子产品的企业能行稳致远，产品力强（更高毛利率） +库存管理能力强（更高周转率）的优质房企将胜出。 我们推演房地产发展新模式可能包括：好房子、人房地钱、房屋全生命周期管理、现房销 售制度等，并我们认为，房地产发展新模式的政策本意在于推动房地产行业从金融业回归 制造业。 好房子是政策导向，当前房地产处于好房子存量少+改需正值释放阶段，供给端估算目前 我国城镇住宅存量中高品质住宅渗透率仅为24%，而需求端估算2022-20年改需占比高达 44%，好房子也是行业内生需求、并且预示着广大空间。 资料来源： Wind 、七普、统计局、申万宏源研究 图表：中国好房子的供需分析 我们认为，市场对于好房子的追求也在从硬件层面逐步扩展到软件层面，好房子定义应 为：物理建筑->功 ...

来自报告 《 货币重构，资产重估——2025年下半年全球资产配置投资策略 》 美元稳定币本质既是美国政府对新兴加密货币"再中心化"的努力，又是对传统美元"去中 心化"的默许与妥协。 资料来源： Coinindex （货币指示网）、申万宏源研究 图表：美元稳定币的推出的意图是稳定美元在加密货币与资产领域的主导地位 美元信用面临挑战，美元稳定币未必稳定，继续战略看好比特币等去中心化数字货币和多 元化稳定币的中期发展空间。 图表：美元稳定币的背后依然是"美元信用" 资料来源： Coinindex （货币指示网）、申万宏源研究 未来我们认为贸易结算、货币互换流动性、离岸债券融资、香港等离岸金融市场建设是未 来人民币国际化的重要方向，尤其是香港作为全球最大人民币离岸市场，其核心价值在于 提供高质量的人民币底层资产，战略地位正在提升。 特朗普关税政策反复凸显美元面临的"特里芬难题"，全球金融货币秩序新一轮重构拉开序 幕，美元资产中期仍面临再平衡压力。 图表：美元资产吸引力是美国平衡双赤字的关键，而这一脆弱平衡正在被打破 资料来源： Wind ，申万宏源研究 历史报告 货币重构，资产重估——2025年下半年全球资产配置投资 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the market is experiencing a short-term upward breakthrough due to several factors, including the stabilization of capital market expectations and the influx of long-term funds, particularly from insurance companies [1][2] - The recent geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a recovery in global risk appetite, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has contributed to the market's positive momentum [2][5] - The index's breakthrough has directly boosted risk appetite, resulting in increased trading activity, particularly in small-cap stocks and technology growth sectors [2][8] Group 2 - The article suggests that multiple positive factors are expected to converge between 2026 and 2027, potentially marking a core bull market phase, although the current market still shows signs of weakness [5][6] - The overall economic outlook remains weak, with concerns about macroeconomic support and limited structural improvements, indicating that the market is not yet ready for a bull market [6][8] - The short-term market may still experience speculative index rallies, but significant upward trends are anticipated to begin in late 2025 [8] Group 3 - The article identifies specific sectors with high elasticity for investment opportunities, including stablecoins, national defense, and military industries, as well as the overseas AI computing power industry [8] - High-dividend assets are expected to undergo a revaluation in the medium term, with a focus on banking stocks, which may face adjustment pressure due to excessive short-term attention [8] - The article maintains a structural bullish outlook for A-shares, emphasizing the reliance on breakthroughs in technology industries and highlighting three asset categories closely related to China's strategic opportunities: gold, rare earths, and national defense [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the restructuring of the global financial and monetary order, emphasizing the challenges faced by the US dollar and the potential for rebalancing in dollar assets due to ongoing trade policies and the emergence of stablecoins [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar and Stablecoins - The essence of dollar stablecoins reflects the US government's effort to re-centralize emerging cryptocurrencies while tacitly allowing the decentralization of traditional dollars [3][5]. - Dollar credit is under pressure, and the stability of dollar stablecoins is uncertain, leading to a strategic outlook favoring decentralized digital currencies like Bitcoin and diversified stablecoins [6]. Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - Future directions for the internationalization of the Renminbi include trade settlement, currency swap liquidity, offshore bond financing, and the development of offshore financial markets, particularly in Hong Kong, which is positioned as the largest offshore Renminbi market [8][9]. Group 3: Strategic Asset Allocation - The article highlights the importance of re-evaluating non-dollar assets, gold, and Bitcoin as alternative investment opportunities during periods of dollar depreciation [10]. - Tactical asset allocation for the next 3-6 months suggests a standard allocation to equities, underweighting oil and US Treasuries, while overweighting gold; for the next 6-12 months, global equities and risk assets like copper may present trend opportunities [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the restructuring of the global financial and monetary order, highlighting the challenges faced by the US dollar and the implications for asset allocation strategies in the coming years [1]. Group 1: Dollar and Monetary Policy - The article emphasizes the "Triffin Dilemma" faced by the US dollar due to fluctuating tariff policies, indicating a mid-term rebalancing pressure on dollar assets [1]. - The introduction of dollar stablecoins represents a dual effort by the US government to re-centralize emerging cryptocurrencies while tacitly allowing the decentralization of traditional dollars [3][5]. - The stability of dollar stablecoins is questioned, suggesting that the underlying "dollar credit" may not be reliable, thus favoring decentralized digital currencies like Bitcoin and diversified stablecoins for mid-term growth [6]. Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - Future directions for the internationalization of the Renminbi include trade settlement, currency swap liquidity, offshore bond financing, and the development of offshore financial markets, particularly in Hong Kong, which is positioned as the largest offshore Renminbi market [8]. - The article notes that there is significant room for improvement in the internationalization of the Renminbi, especially when compared to China's GDP and trade volume as a percentage of global figures [9]. Group 3: Strategic Asset Allocation - The article suggests a focus on non-dollar assets, gold, and Bitcoin as alternative assets that present revaluation opportunities [10]. - Tactical asset allocation for the next 3-6 months includes standard equity positions, underweighting oil and US Treasuries, while overweighting gold; for the next 6-12 months, there may be trend opportunities in global equities and risk assets like copper [10]. - The article highlights that the allocation of funds in Chinese, Japanese, and European stock markets remains low, indicating potential for growth, while US stock market allocations are at high levels and may decrease [10].

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a slow application advancement, with new consumption facing price-performance issues, and there is a cautious attitude towards anti-involution [2] - The index center may rise in Q4 2025, with 2026-2027 being the core bull market period, relying on breakthroughs in the technology industry [2] - Three macro narratives are highlighted as strong correlated assets: gold, rare earths, and national defense military industry, with Hong Kong stocks seen as a potential leading market in the upcoming bull market [2] Group 2 - A more robust financial market environment is needed, along with more high-quality RMB assets available for overseas investors, while the A-share market is building the foundation for a bull market through investment function construction [5] - The "New National Nine Articles" in 2024 will focus on optimizing investment functions, enhancing the A-share market's shareholder structure [5] - The computer sector is identified as a low allocation industry within the technology sector, with an absolute under-allocation amounting to 25.6 billion yuan [6]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term risk appetite in A-shares is declining, with a weakening narrative from top to bottom, influenced by domestic economic conditions and increasing overseas disturbances [1][2][3] Group 1: Domestic Economic Conditions - The domestic economic support is in a transitional phase, with early signs of a decline in export demand and expectations for growth stabilization to materialize around September to October [1][2] - The market is currently in a window where policy easing may respond to market concerns, but significant fiscal measures are anticipated to be realized only in the later part of the year [2][3] Group 2: Overseas Disturbances - Increased overseas uncertainties, including the U.S. debt ceiling and geopolitical conflicts, are contributing to a suppression of risk appetite [2][3] - Key dates in July and August will be critical for assessing the outcomes of U.S.-China trade negotiations and other geopolitical tensions [2] Group 3: Industry-Specific Narratives - The A-share market is experiencing a slowdown in AI investment compared to U.S. markets, with concerns about the pace of AI application in China [3] - New consumption sectors are facing challenges related to cost-effectiveness, which, combined with fears of overall consumption weakening, is leading to a noticeable contraction in profitability within these sectors [3][4] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Asset Allocation - Defensive assets are expected to yield absolute returns in the short term, particularly in banking and high-dividend sectors like food and beverage [4][6] - The market is anticipated to remain in a high central tendency oscillation phase through Q2 and Q3 of 2025, with potential for an upward shift in the index central tendency by Q4 [5][6] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The long-term view remains optimistic, with expectations for a bull market phase between 2026 and 2027, driven by improvements in supply-demand dynamics and increasing market profitability [5][6] - Strategic focus on sectors such as gold, rare earths, and defense industries is emphasized as they align with China's strategic opportunities [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in China, highlighting the mixed performance of consumption, industrial production, and investment, indicating a potential lack of sustainability in the recent economic recovery [7]. Consumption - In May 2025, retail sales showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 5.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from April, driven by government subsidies and increased consumer travel [7][18]. - The demand for gold and jewelry has increased due to rising gold prices, but this consumption is not stable and may not be sustainable if income does not improve [7]. - The overall consumer sentiment is cautious, with a preference for using savings over loans for consumption, reflecting a weak growth in new short-term loans [7]. Industrial Production - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in May 2025 was 6.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April, indicating a slowdown in industrial production [7]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained in negative territory at -0.1%, suggesting ongoing deflationary pressures [7]. Investment - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.7% in May 2025, down 0.3 percentage points from April, with real estate investment declining by 10.7% [7]. - Infrastructure investment grew by 10.42%, but this was also a decline of 0.43 percentage points from the previous period, indicating a weakening trend across various sectors [7]. - The article emphasizes that the real estate sector requires additional policy support to stabilize [7]. Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain in a favorable position due to a loose monetary policy and weak real financing, with a recommendation to maintain duration and wait for positive developments [7]. - The recent strong performance in credit bonds is attributed more to expectations rather than actual capital movement from deposits to non-banking sectors [7].