文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 2026年1-2月广义财政收支呈现收入边际修复，支出靠前发力的显著特征，财政稳增长意图明确。 1-2月广义财政收入同比-1.4%，较2025年12月大幅回升17.1 个百分点，收入端初显企稳迹象；而广义财政支出同比显著提速至6.1%，降幅收窄并转正。从预算完成度看，广义收入完成度17.8%与过去五年平均持平， 支出端完成度14.1%高于过去五年均值13.2%。 收入端整体边际改善，主要由税费收入回暖支撑，土地出让收入延续低迷。 1-2月税收收入同比转正至0.1%，国内增值税及企业所得税降幅收窄，侧面反映 出微观企业盈利及工业生产呈现企稳修复迹象。消费税延续低迷，提示内需动能仍待进一步激发。另一方面，1-2月地方国有土地出让收入同比下滑25.2%， 表明土地市场调整对地方广义财力的掣肘仍存。 支出端全面提速且结构优化，民生保障与基建投资两端发力，政府债发行提供核心支撑。 1 -2 月一般财政支出同比回升至3.6%；结构上，卫生健康 （17.3%）、社保就业（8.6%）等民生类支出大幅增长；同时，交通运输、农林水等基建类支出降幅大幅收窄。此外，政府性基金支出同比飙 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 重点推介 "十五五"规划解读：结构重塑与改革赋能 1. "十五五"发展战略的转变？ 从"十四五"到"十五五"，规划纲要突出"历史主动精神"。篇章结构精炼聚焦，提升全面深化改革与新质 生产力权重。指标体系淡化总量增速，重视结构优化与改革推进。 2. "十五五"的关键改革领域？ 全国统一大市场建设与绿色转型协同，共同推进"反内卷"。财税与货币政策制度改革与协同发力并进， 以建设金融强国。对外开放确立自主与单边开放基调，旨在倒逼服务业升级并应对贸易壁垒。 3. "十五五"产业政策的变化？ 供给侧，"十五五"规划更重视"智能化"为引领的产业发展思路。需求侧，扩内需将提振消费置于首位。 地产被纳入民生保障篇章，反映经济转型的核心是从总量刺激向高质量发展切换 ☎欢迎交流：申万宏观 贾东旭、侯倩楠、赵伟 周度研究成果汇总 （3.14-3.20） 首经观点 1、首经观点| 打造强大的金融机构将夯实金融强国微观基础 热点思考 1、热点思考| 中期选举"诅咒"：特朗普能否翻盘？-"美国中选"系列之一 高频跟踪 首经观点 1、海外高频| 地缘摩擦升温，油价 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 一、美伊冲突僵局，风险偏好持续承压，关注支持"第一阶段上涨"的资金短期集中退坡(行业ETF规模收缩，年金减仓避免净值损失，"固收+"减 仓和赎回)，这使得，眼前可能已经是压力最大阶段。行稳致远政策发力在情理之中，需注意行稳致远结构与绝对收益减仓结构可能存在差异， 构成尾部风险。 我们依然提示，中期变数被低估：1. 对中美而言，货币紧缩应对输入性通胀都是下策。提升通胀容忍度是大概率。2. 美国经济有韧性，中国经济 有腾挪空间，衰退不是基准假设。3. 地缘政治僵局，中国能源安全、供应链安全可能是全球Alpha。即便，美伊冲突中期仍有反复，对A股的冲 击逐步减弱是大概率。 美伊冲突陷入僵局，各界对中东新秩序的准备均不足。但新平衡的形成，仍需要长时间的博弈。这体现为，短期事件性扰动仍在反复，资本市场 风险偏好直接承压。短期市场推演美伊冲突影响，主要类比两次石油危机的经验：油价上涨，运费提升 → 通胀升温 → 货币紧缩 → 经济衰退， 确认滞胀周期 → 股市基本面和估值共振回落。这样的逻辑链条，短期无法证伪。同时，我们关注，支持" ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 3 . 1 6 - 3 . 2 2 周度研究成果 申 万 宏 源 策 略 研 究 团 队 目录 一周回顾 专题研究 1、【大势研判】 眼下可能已经是压力最大阶段——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(26/03/16-26/03/21) 2、【行业比较】 A股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报——行业比较周跟踪（20260315-20260322） 3、【资产配置】 黄金急跌：流动性下杀≠趋势反转——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20260313-20260320) 4、【主题投资】 首款侵入式脑机接口获批上市，我国宣布加入《三倍核能宣言》——未来产业周报第13期（2026/3/8-2026/3/14） 1、 危中有机，布局AI时代"通胀"资产——申万宏源2026年春季全球资产配置投资策略 2、 已凌千峰凭栏望，犹有青云万里程——申万宏源2026年春季黄金投资策略展望 3、 "举"重"弱"轻，保持对冲——申万宏源2026年春季美股投资策略 4、 不只是红利：高股息资产的再定价——港股行业比较春季策略报告 5、 从"双反"到碳关税：贸易壁垒倒逼我 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the launch of the 2026 Spring Campus Recruitment by Shenwan Hongyuan Research, highlighting the opportunities for fresh graduates to join a leading securities research institution in China [6][11]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shenwan Hongyuan Research, established in 1992, is a comprehensive securities research and consulting institution with independent legal status, known for its large scale and early establishment in mainland China [8]. - The research team consists of over 300 professionals, focusing on macroeconomics, industry and company analysis, investment strategies for stocks and bonds, and product design, aiming to provide long-term stable professional research services [8][9]. - The institution serves a wide range of clients, including major fund management companies, insurance firms, commercial banks, and various asset management institutions, both domestically and internationally [9]. Group 2: Achievements and Recognition - Shenwan Hongyuan Research has consistently ranked among the top in service market commission volumes for fund companies and has received numerous accolades for its influence and independence in research [11][12]. - The institution has been recognized as one of the "Most Influential Research Institutions" and "Best Local Research" by various independent media organizations, reflecting its strong reputation in the industry [11][12]. Group 3: Recruitment and Talent Development - The 2026 Spring Internship Program is open to graduates from domestic and overseas institutions, with specific eligibility dates outlined for applicants [14]. - The company emphasizes a comprehensive talent development system, including new employee training, mentorship, and multi-channel career development opportunities [12][13]. - The recruitment process includes online applications, written tests, and interviews, with a structured timeline for each stage [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the launch of the 2026 Spring Campus Recruitment by Shenwan Hongyuan Research, highlighting the opportunities for fresh graduates to join a leading securities research institution in China [6][11]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shenwan Hongyuan Research, established in 1992, is a comprehensive securities research and consulting institution with independent legal status, known for its large scale and early establishment in mainland China [8]. - The research team consists of over 300 professionals, focusing on macroeconomics, industry and company analysis, investment strategies for stocks and bonds, and product design, aiming to provide long-term stable professional research services [8][9]. - The company serves a wide range of clients, including major fund management companies, insurance firms, commercial banks, and various asset management institutions, both domestically and internationally [9]. Group 2: Recruitment Details - The recruitment is targeted at students graduating between January 1, 2026, and July 31, 2026, from domestic institutions, and between May 1, 2025, and July 31, 2026, from overseas institutions [14]. - The recruitment process includes online application, written tests, interviews, and internships, with specific timelines outlined for each stage [15]. - The company offers various positions, including macroeconomic analysts, bond analysts, equity analysts, financial engineers, and strategy analysts, providing a dual career path in management and specialization [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in industrial production, demand, and pricing, highlighting the recovery in construction and real estate transactions, as well as the mixed performance of various sectors in the economy [2][50][104]. Group 1: Industrial Production Tracking - The industrial production shows a divergence, with high furnace operation maintaining resilience while steel consumption has declined. The high furnace operating rate increased by 0.1% week-on-week and rose by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 2.3% [2] - In the petrochemical sector, the operation rate for soda ash decreased by 0.3% week-on-week and fell by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to -3.0%, while PTA's operating rate increased by 0.2% week-on-week and rose by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year to -5% [14] - The construction industry saw a marginal recovery in cement production, with the grinding operation rate decreasing by 3.8% week-on-week but increasing by 3.6 percentage points year-on-year to 3.4% [26] Group 2: Demand Tracking - The real estate market showed improvement, with the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increasing year-on-year to 106.8%. Notably, second-tier cities experienced a significant recovery, with transactions rising to 137.8% year-on-year [50] - The transportation metrics related to domestic demand, such as railway freight volume and highway truck traffic, increased by 2.1 and 20.2 percentage points year-on-year to 3.1% and 26%, respectively [62] - The migration scale index rose by 36.8 percentage points year-on-year to 52.7%, indicating a strong recovery in travel activity [74] Group 3: Price Tracking - Agricultural product prices generally declined, with egg and vegetable prices dropping by 3.4% week-on-week, while fruit prices remained stable [104] - The industrial product price index decreased by 0.5% week-on-week, with the energy and chemical price index falling by 1.1% and the metal price index rising by 0.4% [116]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the launch of the 2026 Spring Campus Recruitment by Shenwan Hongyuan Research, highlighting the opportunities for fresh graduates to join a leading securities research institution in China [6][11]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shenwan Hongyuan Research, established in 1992, is a comprehensive securities research and consulting institution with independent legal status, known for its large scale and early establishment in mainland China [8]. - The research team consists of over 300 professionals, focusing on macroeconomics, industry and company analysis, investment strategies for stocks and bonds, and product design, aiming to provide long-term stable professional research services [8][9]. - The institution serves a wide range of clients, including major fund management companies, insurance firms, commercial banks, and various asset management institutions, both domestically and internationally [9]. Group 2: Achievements and Recognition - Shenwan Hongyuan Research has consistently ranked among the top in service market commission volumes for fund companies and has received numerous accolades for its influence and independence in research [11][12]. - The institution has been recognized as one of the "Most Influential Research Institutions" and "Best Local Research" by various independent media organizations, reflecting its strong reputation in the industry [11][12]. Group 3: Recruitment and Talent Development - The 2026 Spring Internship Program is open to graduates from domestic and overseas institutions, with specific eligibility dates outlined for applicants [14]. - The company emphasizes a comprehensive talent development system, including new employee training, mentorship, and multi-channel career development opportunities [12][13]. - The recruitment process includes online applications, written tests, and interviews, with specific timelines provided for each stage [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in consumer behavior during the 2026 Spring Festival, suggesting a potential shift from "quantitative change" to "qualitative change" in consumption patterns, driven by various factors including demographic shifts and evolving consumer preferences [1]. Group 1: Unusual Aspects of Spring Festival Consumption - Unusual Aspect One: The surge in travel demand, with the 2026 Spring Festival holiday extended to 9 days, leading to a 6.5 percentage point increase in cross-regional mobility compared to the previous week, reaching 9.5%. Domestic travel volume hit a new high, with a 2.9 percentage point increase compared to the 2025 National Day holiday, totaling 19% [2][12]. - Unusual Aspect Two: The rise of the "silver-haired" travel demographic, with over 35% increase in flight bookings for travelers aged 60 and above, and a 1.6 times increase in those traveling to Beijing. Ticket bookings for scenic spots by this age group rose by 40%, with significant growth from second and third-tier cities [2][24]. - Unusual Aspect Three: The trend of "self-appropriation" in consumption, with self-driving trips increasing by 5.6 percentage points to 85.4%. AI order volume on travel platforms surged over 800%, and ticket sales for experiential activities saw a 764% increase [3][30]. Group 2: Three Transformations in Consumer Logic - Transformation One: The increase in travel demand is attributed to a reconstruction of travel methods, influenced by warmer weather and the rapid penetration of electric vehicles, with an average temperature of 2.5°C above the norm during the holiday. The share of electric vehicle trips reached 22%, significantly higher than the ownership rate of 12% [4][48]. - Transformation Two: The acceleration of new consumption trends like "self-appropriation" is driven by upgraded information dissemination methods, with travel-related posts on platforms like Xiaohongshu increasing by 36% during the holiday, indicating a growing reliance on new media for travel planning [4][59]. - Transformation Three: The increase in quality service supply during the Spring Festival, supported by promotional policies, created a "supply creates demand" effect, with over 15,000 cultural performances held, attracting over 73 million visitors and generating 5.88 billion yuan in consumption [5][71]. Group 3: Economic Expectations for 2026 - The article suggests that China may be at the beginning of a "U-shaped" recovery, with consumer tendencies expected to rise as the "crowding-out effect" from real estate diminishes. The current indicators show a return to pre-2015 levels in housing price-to-income ratios, which may lead to improved consumer sentiment and spending [6][80]. - The potential for service consumption is highlighted, with expectations that as GDP per capita exceeds $10,000, the elasticity of service consumption will increase, driven by trends such as smaller household sizes and a growing demand for leisure services [6][92].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the launch of the 2026 Spring Campus Recruitment by Shenwan Hongyuan Research, highlighting the opportunities for fresh graduates to join a leading securities research institution in China [6][11]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shenwan Hongyuan Research, established in 1992, is a comprehensive securities research and consulting institution with independent legal status, known for its large scale and early establishment in mainland China [8]. - The research team consists of over 300 professionals, focusing on macroeconomics, industry and company analysis, investment strategies for stocks and bonds, and product design, aiming to provide long-term stable professional research services [8][9]. - The institution has been recognized as one of the most influential research organizations in China, receiving multiple awards for its independent research and service quality from various media outlets [11][12]. Group 2: Recruitment Details - The recruitment is targeted at students graduating between January 1, 2026, and July 31, 2026, from domestic institutions, and from May 1, 2025, to July 31, 2026, for overseas institutions [14]. - The recruitment process includes online application, written tests, interviews, and internships, with specific timelines outlined for each stage [15]. - The company offers a comprehensive talent development system, including training for new employees and opportunities for career advancement through dual channels in management and professional tracks [12][13].