研报 | HBM4新规格拉高制造门槛，预期溢价幅度逾30%

Core Insights - The development of HBM technology is driven by the demand for AI servers, with major manufacturers actively advancing HBM4 product timelines [1][5] - HBM4 is expected to have a premium exceeding 30% due to increased manufacturing complexity compared to HBM3e, which had a premium of about 20% at launch [1] Group 1: HBM Technology Overview - HBM4 is set to release in 2026, featuring a core die density of 24Gb, with layers ranging from 12 to 16 and a speed of 8-10 Gbps, doubling the I/O count from 1024 to 2048 compared to previous generations [2][5] - HBM3e, released in 2024, has a core die density of 24Gb and an I/O count of 1024, while HBM3, released in 2022, has a core die density of 16Gb [2] Group 2: Market Projections - TrendForce forecasts that the total shipment volume of the HBM market will exceed 30 billion Gb by 2026, with HBM4 expected to surpass HBM3e in market share by the second half of 2026 [6] - SK hynix is projected to maintain a leading position with over 50% market share in HBM4, while Samsung and Micron need to improve product yield and capacity to catch up [6]