中美日内瓦达成关税协议，全球汽车产业迎来深度重构

Core Viewpoint - The tariff policy will act as a persistent structural variable, forcing the industry to transition towards a "multi-centered supply chain paradigm" [2][19]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The recent U.S.-China tariff agreement has temporarily alleviated short-term cost pressures, catalyzing growth in China's new energy component exports, particularly in technology-intensive products such as intelligent driving, lightweight materials, and high-pressure fast-charging modules [2]. - Major affected global automakers include Toyota, Hyundai, General Motors, Honda, and Nissan, while Chinese component manufacturers face relatively minor direct impacts [2][3]. Group 2: U.S. Automotive Market Trends - In 2024, U.S. automotive sales are projected to increase by 3% to 16.03 million units, with imports accounting for 50% of total sales, and Mexico being the largest source of imported vehicles at 18% [5][6]. - The number of vehicles imported from China is expected to surge by 55% to 116,000 units in 2024, although this still represents only 1.8% of China's total automotive exports [8]. Group 3: Import and Export Dynamics - The import value of vehicles from Mexico is projected to rise by 13% to $78.5 billion in 2024, while the import value from China remains significantly lower, ranking tenth [6]. - U.S. exports of vehicles to China are expected to decline by 22% to approximately 100,000 units, with Mercedes accounting for half of this volume [13]. Group 4: Component Trade - The U.S. maintains a steady import value of around $18 billion for components from China, while exports to China have been decreasing [15][17]. - In 2024, the leading markets for U.S. component exports are Mexico and Canada, with Mexico's market showing a 5% increase to $38.8 billion [16]. Group 5: Industry Response Strategies - The tariff impacts are driving the industry to adopt three typical response paths: price transmission, trade avoidance, and capacity restructuring, which may increase short-term supply chain volatility and market competition stratification [19]. - Companies are encouraged to establish a "tariff elasticity coefficient" monitoring system to dynamically assess policy impacts and incorporate geopolitical risks into strategic planning [19].