海外置业② | 迪拜房地产市场交易规模与驱动因素

Core Viewpoint - The Dubai real estate market is experiencing significant growth in transaction volume and value, driven by a young and predominantly expatriate population, alongside a diversified economy that supports various sectors including tourism and real estate [2][25][34]. Group 1: Market Status - The Dubai real estate market has shown a robust recovery post-pandemic, with a 38% increase in transaction volume and over 50% growth in transaction value in 2023. In 2024, the market is expected to reach a record 181,000 transactions, a 36.5% year-on-year increase, with a total transaction value of 522.5 billion dirhams, up 27.3% [2][4]. - The real estate prices in Dubai are influenced by economic diversification, infrastructure development, and market fluctuations, maintaining stability after rapid growth [3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Emaar Properties holds a significant market share, supported by government backing and a project delivery rate exceeding 95%. In 2024, Emaar achieved contract sales of 65.4 billion dirhams (approximately 17.8 billion USD), marking a 75% increase [10][11]. - Nakheel, a subsidiary of Dubai Holding, focuses on large-scale projects like Palm Island and World Islands, leveraging government support and land reserves in coastal growth areas [13]. - Damac Properties, a leading private developer, emphasizes high-end residential and mixed-use community developments, maintaining a strong market presence through innovative projects [15]. Group 3: Economic Foundation - Dubai's economy is diversifying effectively, with tourism, trade, finance, and real estate becoming key growth drivers. The tourism sector is rebounding, with international overnight visitors reaching 18.72 million in 2024, a 9% increase, including a 31% rise in Chinese tourists [18][19]. - The real estate sector contributes approximately 8% to Dubai's GDP, playing a crucial role in economic growth, investment attraction, and job creation [20]. Group 4: Population Support - The population of Dubai is projected to reach 3.74 million by 2024, with a youthful demographic where individuals aged 30-34 represent the largest group [25]. - Expatriates make up 92% of the population, with significant representation from South Asia and Southeast Asia, and a growing number of Chinese nationals seeking opportunities in Dubai [26]. Group 5: Planning and Future Outlook - Dubai's 2040 urban plan includes the development of two new city centers, Expo Center and Dubai Silicon Oasis, aimed at attracting high-tech talent and fostering innovation [29][32]. - The real estate strategy aims to double the sector's contribution to GDP by 2033, increasing transaction values from 522.5 billion dirhams in 2024 to 1 trillion dirhams [33].