小鹏汽车 | 2025Q1亏损大幅收窄 AI智能生态加速【民生汽车 崔琰团队】

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 141.5%, indicating strong operational performance despite a slight quarter-on-quarter decline [2][3]. Revenue Analysis - Q1 2025 revenue reached 15.81 billion RMB, with automotive business revenue at 14.37 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 159.2% driven by increased delivery volumes [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle decreased from 160,300 RMB in Q4 2024 to 152,900 RMB in Q1 2025 [2]. - Other business revenues amounted to 1.44 billion RMB, up 43.6% year-on-year, primarily due to increased technical service income from collaborations with Volkswagen Group [2]. Profitability Analysis - The automotive business gross profit was 1.51 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 10.5%, up 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Total gross profit for Q1 2025 was 2.46 billion RMB, with an overall gross margin of 15.6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7 percentage points [3]. - The overall gross margin improvement was attributed to increased sales volume leading to lower vehicle costs and economies of scale, although some gains were offset by inventory impairment and procurement losses [3]. Expense Management - R&D expenses for Q1 2025 were 1.98 billion RMB, up 46.7% year-on-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 12.5%, down 8.1 percentage points [4]. - Selling and administrative expenses were 1.95 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.2%, primarily due to increased commissions from franchise stores [4]. Market Presence - As of Q1 2025, the company operated 690 sales centers across 223 cities, maintaining its market coverage [5]. - The company held cash and cash equivalents totaling 45.28 billion RMB, indicating a strong liquidity position [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 automotive sales between 102,000 and 108,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 237.7% to 257.5%, with projected revenue of approximately 17.5 billion to 18.7 billion RMB [5]. - A strong product cycle is expected to commence, with new models set to launch, which may further stimulate sales and enhance competitiveness [6][7]. Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to experience dual improvements in performance and valuation driven by model cycles, organizational innovation, and advancements in AI technology [8]. - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 94.58 billion, 147.63 billion, and 170.08 billion RMB, with net profits of -660 million, 4.64 billion, and 7.54 billion RMB respectively [10].