让美元的归美元，美债的归美债

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 has significant implications for the relationship between the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, highlighting that while the dollar is not a sovereign currency, US Treasuries represent sovereign debt [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Credit Rating Downgrade - The downgrade by Moody's has led to a substantial increase in the yield of 10-year US Treasuries, which is currently around 4.55% [1]. - The downgrade raises questions about the practical significance of the US sovereign credit rating and the relationship between the dollar and US Treasuries [3]. Group 2: Understanding Sovereign Debt - The concept of sovereign debt is compared to corporate debt, where companies face pressure to repay interest and principal, leading to a need for cash flow management [5]. - Sovereign nations have more flexibility in managing debt, introducing the idea of sovereign currency and its relationship to debt restructuring [6]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Dynamics - The divergence in views between Jerome Powell and Donald Trump is highlighted, with Powell aiming to maintain higher financing rates to avoid debt restructuring, while Trump appears to favor a significant depreciation of the dollar [7][8]. - The Federal Reserve's credibility is tied to its adherence to established rules, which complicates the relationship between the US government and US Treasuries [9][10]. Group 4: The Nature of the Dollar - The dollar is characterized as a super-sovereign currency, generated by a set of rules rather than solely by the US government [12][13]. - The flexibility of the dollar's rules contrasts with the rigid nature of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which are based on fixed generation rules [14]. Group 5: Future Challenges for the Dollar and Treasuries - The Federal Reserve's recent adjustments to its policy framework reflect the need to adapt to changing economic conditions and geopolitical complexities [15][16]. - The downgrade of the US credit rating has transformed US Treasuries into a form of credit debt, indicating that rising yields are not unexpected [16][17].