终于，连爱马仕也涨不动了

Core Viewpoint - The luxury goods industry is facing significant challenges, including leadership changes in major companies, declining sales growth, and a shift in consumer behavior towards high-quality replicas and alternatives [3][4][30]. Group 1: Leadership Changes and Performance - Recent leadership changes in top luxury brands like LVMH and Kering reflect a response to market pressures and declining performance [3][4]. - Major luxury brands are experiencing disappointing sales, with Hermès' growth slowing by 10 percentage points compared to last year, and Kering's Gucci facing a double-digit decline in sales for five consecutive quarters [4][9]. - LVMH's revenue fell short of market expectations, particularly in its wine and spirits segment, leading to a nearly 13% drop in its stock price this year [7][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Burberry reported a staggering 94% drop in profit, prompting the company to cut approximately 20% of its global workforce to save £60 million by fiscal year 2027 [4][5]. - From 2019 to 2024, the luxury goods sector saw economic profits triple, primarily due to price increases, but signs of slowdown are evident as this strategy loses effectiveness [4][30]. - Prada stands out with a 13% revenue increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong performance from its Miu Miu brand, while Kering's overall sales dropped by 14% [9][11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The luxury market is experiencing a bifurcation, with core brands like Prada performing well while others like Gucci and YSL struggle [11][15]. - North America remains a stable market for luxury brands, with Hermès and Prada achieving growth of 11% and 9.9% respectively, while Japan shows a remarkable recovery with a 25% increase for Richemont [18][19]. - The luxury sector is witnessing a shift in consumer preferences, with a notable decline in the number of luxury consumers in North America by 12.5% from 2022 to 2024 [32]. Group 4: Product Performance - Leather goods continue to be a stronghold for luxury brands, with Hermès' leather and harness business growing by 10% [24][25]. - In contrast, the wine and spirits segment of LVMH saw an 8% decline, indicating a significant disparity in performance across different product categories [25][26]. - The demand for high-end watches and jewelry is declining, with Rolex's secondary market prices dropping over 30% from their peak two years ago [28][30]. Group 5: Strategic Challenges - The effectiveness of price increases as a strategy is waning, with brands like Prada and Balenciaga implementing price hikes in early 2025, citing inflation and rising costs [30][31]. - The rise of high-quality replicas is challenging traditional luxury brands, with a significant portion of consumers now openly purchasing and wearing these alternatives [33][35]. - The luxury industry faces a complex landscape of changing consumer demographics, economic uncertainties, and evolving retail channels, necessitating a reevaluation of strategies [35][37].