国泰海通｜固收：存款利率调降，资金未必出表

Core Viewpoint - The overall sensitivity of deposit scale to the reduction in deposit interest rates is low under the trend of low interest rates [1] Group 1: Deposit Scale and Interest Rate Sensitivity - The deposit scale is not sensitive to the reduction in non-interbank deposit rates, primarily due to the manual interest compensation rectification in April 2024, which caused a short-term outflow of deposits to asset management products [2] - Despite several rounds of deposit rate cuts since 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of personal and corporate deposits has aligned with the growth rate of broad money supply, with the proportion of deposits in broad money supply rising from around 48% to a peak of 52% by March 2024 [2][3] - The proportion of deposits in low-risk preference funds has shown a slight decline from a peak of 79.3% in March 2023, indicating manageable outflow pressure [2] Group 2: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts - The disturbances caused by deposit rate cuts on fund outflows were not significant before 2024, but became more pronounced afterward due to increased price comparison willingness in a low-interest environment [3] - Following the deposit rate cuts in July and October 2024, there was a noticeable decline in the year-on-year growth of large bank deposits, indicating a shift towards asset management products [3][4] - The current round of deposit rate cuts is not expected to lead to a significant tightening of the funding environment, as the year-on-year growth of deposits has remained stable despite the cuts [4] Group 3: Future Expectations - The attractiveness of asset management products relative to deposits is expected to decrease due to the ongoing adjustments in performance benchmarks and the gradual implementation of net value rectification [4] - The company anticipates that the ticket interest strategy will continue to prevail, with high-grade short-duration credit bonds likely to benefit from some funds flowing from deposits to asset management products [4]