中国股市：向死，而生。

Core Viewpoint - The judgment of a bullish trend in A-shares remains unchanged, with three key points influencing the market outlook [2]. Group 1: Trade Relations and Export Competitiveness - The unexpected joint statement reached between China and the U.S. in Geneva has raised new expectations for easing trade tensions, although the current results are not ideal, and the comprehensive tax rate remains above 50% [2]. - China's export competitiveness has not been compromised, indicating resilience in the supply chain, but there are concerns about future regulatory pressures and U.S. intentions to control Chinese exports [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Sentiment - Multiple policies aimed at stabilizing growth have been introduced, particularly focusing on stimulating domestic demand and upgrading industries. However, the marginal effectiveness of consumption subsidies is declining, and the real estate sector is experiencing significant slowdowns, leading to insufficient market confidence in overcoming deflation [3][5]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market is relatively better, benefiting from the weakening of the U.S. dollar and the reshaping of global non-U.S. asset valuation systems. Currently, foreign capital is primarily engaging in short-term trading strategies, leading to a net outflow in the long term [6]. - Since the listing of a major company, foreign investment has started to increase, particularly from the Middle East, while domestic capital has significantly increased its holdings in Hong Kong stocks, shifting focus from the internet sector to new consumption [7][8]. Group 4: A-share Market Analysis - The "bottom" of the A-share market is continuously rising, supported by state intervention, although the effectiveness of current investment strategies is questioned, particularly those relying on leverage and small-cap stocks [10][12]. - The coal industry is facing significant challenges, with fundamental discrepancies affecting major players, and small-cap stocks are becoming overcrowded, leading to reduced trading volumes [13][15]. Group 5: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - Current investment strategies are deemed ineffective, with a high risk of significant drawdowns for those relying on leveraged approaches or speculative stocks. The recent market downturn serves as a warning [17]. - Future investment opportunities may lie in technology-driven catalysts, the pace of U.S.-China negotiations, or domestic demand recovery, with a focus on policy changes being crucial for market movements [25][26]. Group 6: Broader Economic Context - The U.S. is facing inflation and limited room for interest rate cuts, while China is leveraging policies for counter-cyclical support and industrial upgrades, aiming for breakthroughs despite short-term pressures [27][30]. - A strong belief in China's market potential persists, with a focus on outmaneuvering U.S. financial strategies to stimulate market activity [31][33].