热点思考 | 消费困局的“盲点”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core issue of service consumption recovery is that it is slower compared to goods consumption, with a significant gap in service consumption tendency compared to historical trends, indicating that income may not be the primary constraint on service recovery [2][8][107] - In 2024, the gap in per capita service consumption compared to historical trends is 2,093 yuan (13.9%), while the gap for goods consumption is only 458 yuan (2.9%) [2][8][107] - The increase in working hours has led to a reduction in leisure time, with daily paid labor time increasing by 2 hours, which negatively impacts service consumption that relies heavily on leisure time [2][19][107] Group 2 - The increase in working hours has resulted in consumer spending being more concentrated around holidays, but the legal holiday days are relatively few, with the minimum legal holiday days set at 18 days by 2025, significantly lower than Japan and South Korea [3][30][108] - The average weekly working hours for urban residents in China reached 48.7 hours in 2023, which is significantly higher than Japan (32.6 hours) and South Korea (36.6 hours) [3][30][108] Group 3 - Insufficient effective supply in the service sector is a short-term constraint on consumption recovery, particularly in the life service sector, where employment numbers have fallen below historical trends by 3.8% [4][49][109] - The slow recovery of supply in the service sector is particularly evident in education, health, and cultural entertainment, with employment in these areas declining compared to historical trends [4][60][109] Group 4 - The lack of entrepreneur confidence is a significant drag on supply, with high industry costs and increased debt pressure contributing to this issue [6][110][111] - Investment in the service sector, especially in life services, has not kept pace with profitability, indicating a cautious investment behavior driven by profitability rather than proactive investment [6][90][110] Group 5 - The service sector's investment logic has shifted from proactive to reactive, leading to a slowdown in investment growth, with fixed asset acquisition in the health sector dropping significantly compared to 2019 [7][90][110] - The average cash flow ratio for the cultural and entertainment sector has decreased, reflecting increased cash flow pressure and limiting the willingness to expand supply [7][96][110]