量价齐跌！华住还能深蹲起跳么？

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of Huazhu Group in Q1 2025 reflects a slowdown in the hotel and travel industry, with key operating metrics declining, but the company has managed to control expenses effectively through organizational restructuring and an increased focus on a franchise model [1][6]. Group 1: Revenue and Performance Metrics - RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) for Huazhu in Q1 was 208 RMB/night, a 4% year-on-year decline, marking a new low since the pandemic recovery began in 2023 [2][3]. - The decline in RevPAR was primarily driven by a decrease in average daily rate (ADR) and occupancy rates, with the ADR dropping to 272 RMB, reflecting a 2.9% year-on-year decrease [5]. - Total revenue for Q1 reached 5.4 billion RMB, a 2% increase, slightly below market expectations of 5.5 billion RMB [3][5]. Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Position - Despite the downturn in the domestic hotel market, Huazhu opened 695 new hotels in Q1, aiming for a total of 2,300 new openings for the year, focusing on lower-tier cities where the chain penetration is still below 30% [2][3]. - The franchise model's revenue contribution increased from 39% to 46% year-on-year, leading to a slight improvement in gross margin to 33% [4][5]. Group 3: Cost Management and Future Guidance - The company achieved a significant reduction in management expense ratio to 9%, the lowest in history, due to improved operational efficiency from organizational restructuring [4][5]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was 1.7 billion RMB, a 27% increase year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [4][5]. - For Q2, the company projects revenue growth of 1%-5%, indicating a cautious outlook on the overall recovery of the hotel and travel sector [4][6].