中金：美债、日债，与全球流动性趋紧

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous cooling of U.S. and Japanese bond auctions, along with rising interest rates, indicates tightening global liquidity, which may lead to systemic liquidity shocks in the U.S. market as new U.S. debt issuance increases following the resolution of the debt ceiling issue [1][18]. Global Liquidity Tightening - Since June 2022, major developed countries' central banks have initiated quantitative tightening (QT), resulting in a significant decline in the asset-to-GDP ratios of the U.S., Japan, Europe, and the UK by 12.1%, 14.0%, 29.3%, and 17.6 percentage points respectively by the end of 2024 [1][3]. - The total liquidity provided by these central banks has reverted to pre-pandemic levels, while the pressure on global asset valuations has exceeded pre-pandemic levels [1][3]. - The market capitalization of U.S. listed companies has increased by 82.9% from $38.5 trillion to $70.3 trillion since 2019, while nominal GDP has only grown by 35.4% [1][6]. Impact on U.S. Market - The tightening of global liquidity is particularly evident in the U.S. market, where the dollar has become more of an investment currency rather than a financing currency due to high borrowing costs [7][9]. - There has been a notable increase in net foreign investment in U.S. assets over the past two years, indicating reliance on overseas funds for dollar asset valuations [7][9]. Risks in Japanese Bond Market - The Japanese bond market is showing signs of vulnerability, with rising yields and decreasing demand for Japanese government bonds (JGBs) as the Bank of Japan reduces its purchases [11][13]. - The tightening of yen liquidity may force Japanese financial institutions to withdraw from dollar assets, exacerbating the pressure on U.S. assets [11][17]. Liquidity Risks and Potential for QE - The resolution of the U.S. debt ceiling is expected to lead to a significant increase in net U.S. debt issuance, potentially reaching $1.25 trillion from July to September, which could sharply tighten dollar liquidity [18][19]. - Rising interest rates and liquidity constraints may suppress U.S. equities and increase the pressure on Japanese financial institutions to divest from dollar assets, leading to systemic risks in the U.S. market [18][19].