工程机械行业｜挖掘机开门红，如何展望全年？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a strong certainty of recovery in the domestic economic cycle, driven by increased fiscal spending and investment in infrastructure, particularly in water conservancy and rural construction [2][3]. Fiscal Policy and Investment - The government has implemented a series of fiscal policies to expand the issuance of special bonds, alleviating local government debt burdens and supporting infrastructure projects [3]. - In 2024, local government special bond issuance is expected to accelerate significantly, with an estimated increase to 2.2 times the amount issued in the first half of the year [3]. - Fixed asset investment in the first quarter of 2025 is projected to grow by 3.7% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 2.3% in the previous year, supporting downstream construction-related investments [3]. Policy Developments - In October 2023, the central government announced an additional issuance of 1 trillion yuan in national bonds, increasing the fiscal deficit to approximately 4.88 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate expected to rise to around 3.8% [4]. - The 2024 government work report proposes a fiscal deficit rate of 3% with a deficit scale of 4.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy stance [4]. - By 2025, the fiscal deficit rate is expected to reach around 4%, the highest in recent years, signaling a strong push to stimulate the economy [4]. Downstream Demand and Industry Trends - The correlation between excavator sales and real estate investment has weakened, with real estate's share in excavator demand decreasing since 2020 [5][6]. - The primary drivers for the current increase in excavator sales are investments in water conservancy and rural construction, with water conservancy fixed asset investment expected to grow by 41.7% year-on-year in 2024 [7]. - Small excavators are increasingly replacing manual labor in rural water conservancy projects, with sales of mini and small excavators growing by 7% and 25% respectively [9]. Equipment Replacement Cycle - The demand for equipment replacement is anticipated to provide sustained support for the engineering machinery cycle, with excavators sold between 2016 and 2020 entering their replacement phase from 2024 to 2026 [10]. - Policies encouraging the replacement of outdated machinery are in place, with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development mandating the elimination of equipment older than 10 years [12]. - The second-hand excavator market is thriving, with significant exports helping to alleviate domestic oversupply, particularly for mid-to-large excavators that peaked in sales between 2020 and 2022 [15].