熊园：三大维度看，美债抛售风险有多大？

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the potential risks associated with foreign countries selling U.S. Treasury bonds (T-bonds) in response to tariffs, emphasizing that such actions are unlikely to lead to a significant increase in T-bond yields due to various structural factors in the market [2][26]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bond Structure - The maturity structure of U.S. Treasury bonds is categorized into short-term (under 1 year), medium-term (1-10 years), and long-term (over 10 years), with short-term bonds accounting for 21.5%, medium-term for 51.8%, and long-term for 17.2% as of March 2025 [4]. - In terms of issuance, over 80% of new T-bonds issued in 2023 have been short-term, reflecting the government's strategy to manage debt costs based on interest rate conditions [4]. Group 2: Investor Composition - As of December 2024, foreign investors, including foreign institutions and central banks, hold 33.0% of U.S. Treasury bonds, followed by mutual funds at 19.3%, the Federal Reserve at 14.7%, individual investors at 10.3%, and banks at 8.6% [6]. - Among foreign investors, central banks account for approximately 43%, with Japan, the UK, and China being the largest holders [6]. Group 3: Maturity Distribution and Repayment Pressure - The maturity distribution indicates that due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the highest volume of T-bonds maturing will occur in the next 2-3 months, with a total maturity of $12 trillion from January to May 2023, compared to $11.5 trillion in the same period last year [12]. - The U.S. government primarily rolls over maturing debt, but high debt levels and interest rates could create repayment pressures, with net interest payments projected to reach 3.1% of GDP in 2024, nearing historical highs [15]. Group 4: Trading Volume and Foreign Selling Review - Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes in 2022, the average daily trading volume of T-bonds has increased significantly, reaching $1.36 trillion, although the turnover rate has not increased proportionately [17]. - Historical analysis shows that while China has reduced its T-bond holdings from a peak of $1.3 trillion to under $800 billion by March 2025, Japan has experienced periods of reduction but overall maintains a rising trend in T-bond holdings [23][24]. Group 5: Conclusion on Foreign Selling Impact - The article concludes that foreign selling of U.S. Treasury bonds is unlikely to cause significant yield increases due to the large market size, the limited speed of potential selling, and the historical resilience of T-bond yields to foreign selling actions [26]. - Key factors include the improbability of a prolonged government shutdown due to debt ceiling issues, the active trading environment of T-bonds, and the limited alternatives for foreign reserves [27].