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Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future trends of the recycled aluminum alloy industry, emphasizing the importance of aluminum alloys in the automotive sector and the challenges posed by supply constraints and production inefficiencies [2][3][4][5][10]. Industry Chain Structure - The aluminum industry chain consists of three segments: upstream (waste aluminum, A00 aluminum ingots, silicon, waste copper), midstream (recycled casting aluminum alloy production, mainly by small and medium-sized private enterprises), and downstream (70% used in automotive and motorcycle applications) [2][5]. Current Industry Status and Trends - In 2024, the recycled aluminum production is projected to reach 10.55 million tons, with casting aluminum alloys accounting for 59% (6.2 million tons) and a low capacity utilization rate of only 34%-40% [3][21]. - The industry is characterized by high capacity but low operational rates, with a tight supply of waste aluminum due to an incomplete recycling system [5][21]. New Capacity Additions - New capacity for casting aluminum alloys is expected to increase by 1.32 million tons in 2024 and 1.25 million tons in 2025, with a faster growth rate for recycled wrought aluminum [4][22]. Cost Analysis - The cost structure for ADC12 includes waste aluminum, silicon, copper, and natural gas, with waste aluminum being the largest cost component [6][66]. - The price difference between waste aluminum and primary aluminum is a critical factor, with a threshold of 1,500 RMB indicating when primary aluminum becomes more cost-effective [6][70]. Downstream Demand Trends - The penetration of new energy vehicles is expected to increase aluminum usage, but the growth rate of wrought aluminum alloys is anticipated to be faster [8][56]. Investment Logic - Short-term focus on price arbitrage opportunities between waste aluminum and ADC12, while long-term demand is supported by automotive lightweighting and electrification trends, though risks from recycled wrought aluminum substitutes should be monitored [10][56]. Waste Aluminum Industry - Domestic waste aluminum accounts for 85% of the supply, with 57% from old materials and 28% from new materials, indicating a strong reliance on domestic sources [39][40]. - The automotive sector is the largest source of waste aluminum, contributing 41% to the total supply [42]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Production Process - The production process involves pre-treatment, melting, and casting, with a focus on optimizing the physical properties of aluminum alloy ingots [44][46]. Downstream Demand for Casting Aluminum Alloys - The automotive and motorcycle industries account for approximately 70% of the downstream consumption of casting aluminum alloys, with significant potential for growth in aluminum usage due to lightweighting and electrification [54][56].