客单价下滑、门店激增，遇见小面深陷「扩张悖论」丨智氪

Core Viewpoint - The aggressive expansion strategy of the company "遇见小面" has led to significant revenue growth, but it has also resulted in declining operational efficiency and rising debt levels, raising concerns about its long-term profitability and sustainability [4][18][25]. Group 1: Company Performance - "遇见小面" has experienced rapid expansion, increasing its number of stores from 170 to 360 between 2022 and 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.5% [3][11]. - The company's revenue grew nearly threefold from 420 million RMB in 2022 to 1.15 billion RMB in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 66.2% [7][9]. - Despite achieving profitability in 2023, the net profit margin decreased from 5.7% in 2023 to 5.3% in 2024, indicating a decline in profit efficiency [20][23]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The average daily revenue per store showed minimal growth, with a CAGR of only 2.4%, and a decline of 10.6% in 2024 compared to 2023 [11][13]. - The company’s same-store sales decreased by 4.2% in 2024, reflecting a drop in operational efficiency despite the increase in store numbers [18][24]. - The average order value has declined from 36.1 RMB in 2022 to 32 RMB in 2024, attributed to price competition in the industry [17][18]. Group 3: Financial Health - The company's debt levels have risen sharply, with an asset-liability ratio hovering around 90%, indicating high financial leverage [26][30]. - Over 70% of the company's liabilities are lease-related, contributing to a heavy asset structure that impacts financial stability [28][30]. - The company’s cash assets barely cover its short-term liabilities, raising concerns about liquidity and operational sustainability [29][36]. Group 4: Market Position and Future Outlook - The company plans to open 120-250 new stores annually from 2025 to 2027, but faces challenges in achieving this aggressive growth due to market saturation and competition [35][39]. - The profitability of franchise stores is significantly lower than that of company-owned stores, which may hinder expansion into lower-tier markets [37][38]. - The recent decision to distribute a substantial dividend before the IPO has raised questions about the company's financial prudence and long-term strategy [40][42].