光大证券研究·2025-05-23 14:03Core Viewpoint - The "Three Oil Giants" (China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation) are expected to steadily increase their oil and gas production in response to national calls for "increasing reserves and production" amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [2][3]. Group 1: Oil and Gas Production - In Q1 2025, the oil and gas equivalent production of the "Three Oil Giants" is projected to grow, with China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation showing year-on-year increases of 0.7%, 1.7%, and 4.8% respectively [2]. - The upstream capital expenditure plans for 2025 are set at 210 billion, 76.7 billion, and 130 billion yuan for China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation respectively, with expected production growth rates of 1.6%, 1.3%, and 5.9% [2]. Group 2: Transition to Renewable Energy - The "Three Oil Giants" are actively advancing their green and low-carbon transformation, with China National Petroleum Corporation aiming for natural gas to account for over 50% of its total production by 2024 [3]. - China National Petroleum Corporation has established over 10 million kilowatts of wind and solar power generation capacity and aims for a hydrogen production capacity of 8,100 tons per year, reflecting a 23% year-on-year increase [3]. - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation is collaborating with CATL to build a nationwide battery swap network, targeting the construction of at least 500 battery swap stations this year and a total of 10,000 in the future [3]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation is advancing its CCUS projects, with the first offshore CCUS project in operation, expected to inject over 1 million tons of CO2 over the next decade [3]. Group 3: Oilfield Services Sector - The global upstream capital expenditure is expected to rebound in 2025, projected to exceed 582.4 billion dollars, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, which will benefit the oilfield services sector [4]. - The performance of oilfield service companies under the "Three Oil Giants" is improving, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation's subsidiaries reporting net profits of 0.887 billion, 0.541 billion, and 0.594 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 40%, 14%, and 18% respectively [4].