Strategy - Current sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market has recovered to last October's high, but lacks catalysts from sentiment, interest rates, and fundamentals in the short term [3] - Although tariff negotiations have progressed better than expected, the urgency for policy intervention has decreased, leading to insufficient internal economic momentum and persistent external uncertainties [3] - Southbound capital inflows have slowed, and active foreign capital continues to flow out, despite the Hong Kong Monetary Authority injecting nearly 130 billion HKD into liquidity [3] - The increase in placements and IPOs may dilute liquidity, suggesting that the market may experience fluctuations or pullbacks before more catalysts emerge [3] - The strategy of "actively intervening during low periods and taking profits during exuberance" remains appropriate, with opportunities to enter at lower costs after adjustments in existing holdings [3] Economic Data - April economic data shows a slowdown in year-on-year growth, with industrial value-added and service production indices at 6.1% and 6.0% respectively [12] - Export growth has slowed due to tariff impacts, with the value of exports from large industrial enterprises increasing by only 0.9% year-on-year [12] - Retail sales in April grew by 5.1% year-on-year, supported by policies like the "old-for-new" program, although some categories like furniture and automobiles saw declines [12] - Fixed asset investment for January to April accumulated a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, with equipment investment showing a significant increase of 18.2% [12] Industry Capacity Cycle - The importance of capacity cycles in industry allocation has increased, with a strong correlation between industry performance and capacity cycles over the past three years [15] - A decline in capital expenditure among non-financial enterprises by 4.9% year-on-year indicates a shift towards negative growth in capital spending, impacting capacity construction and expansion [15] - Some industries are beginning to see improvements in fundamentals, with new demand catalyzing a resumption of capital expenditure growth, presenting potential investment opportunities [15]
中金研究 | 本周精选：宏观、策略