专题 | 2024年房企偿债能力报告：流动性压力仍在加大，行业信用修复仍需时间

Core Viewpoint - By the end of 2024, 84% of the 50 sample real estate companies have seen a decrease in cash holdings compared to the beginning of the year, with 62% of companies experiencing a worsening in their adjusted unrestricted cash to short-term debt ratio, and the proportion of companies at risk has increased by 2 percentage points to 72% [1][29]. Group 1: Cash Holdings and Financial Pressure - The cash holdings of sample real estate companies decreased by 8.04% by the end of 2024, with a total cash holding of 12,925 billion [4][6]. - 84% of real estate companies have seen a decrease in cash compared to the beginning of the year, while state-owned enterprises have increased their cash holdings [7][30]. - The adjusted restricted cash ratio reached 28%, indicating that the actual short-term debt repayment capacity of real estate companies may be lower [7][30]. Group 2: Total Interest-Bearing Debt - The total interest-bearing debt decreased by 3.12% compared to the beginning of the year, with the total interest-bearing debt scale at 50,023 billion [9][30]. - Private real estate companies saw a 9.35% reduction in total interest-bearing debt, with 18 companies having total interest-bearing debt exceeding 100 billion [11][30]. - 20% of real estate companies experienced an increase in total interest-bearing debt, while most companies have either actively or passively reduced their debt levels [11][30]. Group 3: Debt Pressure and Default Risk - The proportion of short-term interest-bearing debt increased to 43%, while state-owned enterprises maintained a relatively sound debt structure [16][30]. - The adjusted unrestricted cash to short-term debt ratio continued to decline, with 64% of companies below the red line, indicating significant short-term repayment pressure [16][30]. Group 4: Net Debt Ratio and Company Classification - The average net debt ratio rose to 98.07%, with significant increases observed in state-owned and mixed-ownership enterprises [14][19]. - 21 companies have a net debt ratio exceeding the red line, highlighting significant differentiation among companies [22][30]. - The proportion of companies at risk increased to 72%, with deterioration observed across all types of enterprises [22][30]. Group 5: Financing Capability and Market Conditions - The overall financing cost for real estate companies decreased to 4.87%, but financing capabilities are increasingly differentiated [25][30]. - The rate of off-balance-sheet financing continues to rise, increasing pressure on real estate companies [25][30]. - 80% of real estate companies have an adjusted quick ratio of less than 1, indicating that debt restructuring for distressed companies remains urgent [25][30].