申万宏观·周度研究成果（5.17-5.23）

Deep Dive - The article discusses a monitoring framework for assessing the economic impact of tariffs in the U.S., focusing on three main modules: trade, prices, and risks [6]. Hot Topics - The concept of "anti-involution" is introduced, highlighting the government's new approach to address "involution-style" competition, identifying industries potentially caught in this phenomenon [8]. - The article examines the blind spots affecting consumer recovery, noting that while goods consumption is returning to normal, service consumption faces supply-demand challenges [11]. Economic Data Review - The analysis indicates that the previous strong "old forces" in the economy are entering a decline phase, while "new forces" continue to build momentum for recovery [15]. - The fiscal data review suggests that there is still room for acceleration in fiscal policy, with tariffs significantly impacting PPI, but improving consumer demand providing substantial support for core CPI [18]. High-Frequency Tracking - The article reports on the recent U.S. CPI data, which was weaker than market expectations, while retail sales showed stronger performance [20]. - Domestic industrial production remains stable, with improvements in infrastructure projects, although shipping prices are showing divergent trends [24]. Policy Insights - The article outlines recent policy measures aimed at maintaining fair competition in the market and addressing "involution-style" competition [27]. Top Charts - The discussion on the "irreplaceability" of Chinese manufacturing highlights certain phenomena that demonstrate this characteristic [29].