Core Viewpoint - The export window for phosphate fertilizers has arrived, and the profitability of phosphate fertilizer companies is expected to be maintained due to regulatory changes and market dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: Export Regulations and Market Dynamics - In May 2023, the General Administration of Customs released inspection regulations for fertilizer exports, effective December 1, 2023, which aims to improve the quality and increase the quantity of fertilizer exports [2]. - The export of phosphate fertilizers will be phased, with the first phase requiring customs declaration by October 15, focusing on exports from May to September [2]. - The total export quota for phosphate fertilizers in 2025 is expected to decrease compared to the previous year, which may impact domestic prices as the spring farming season has ended and demand has shifted to a low season [2][4]. Group 2: Price Trends and Profitability - As of May 23, 2025, the average prices for 55% monoammonium phosphate and 64% diammonium phosphate in China were 3,330 and 3,526 RMB per ton, reflecting increases of 9.8% and 6.7% respectively since the beginning of the year [3]. - Internationally, the average prices for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were 660 and 695 USD per ton, with increases of 14.8% and 13.0% respectively [3]. - Despite the price increases, the average gross profit margins for these products have been declining, with both currently in a loss position [3]. Group 3: Export Volume Trends - In 2024, China's export volumes for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were 2,004,700 and 4,563,200 tons, showing declines of 1.6% and 9.4% year-on-year [4]. - In the first four months of 2025, exports dropped significantly, with monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate volumes at 75,300 and 79,800 tons, down 75.7% and 85.3% year-on-year [4]. - The upcoming export window is expected to boost export volumes, which may support or uplift phosphate fertilizer prices [4]. Group 4: Raw Material Prices and Industry Position - Phosphate rock prices have remained high since 2021, with a current price of 1,020 RMB per ton as of May 23, 2025 [5]. - The majority of China's phosphate rock reserves are of medium to low grade, with only about 20% being high-grade [5]. - Leading companies in the phosphate chemical industry are securing high-grade phosphate resources, which enhances their production capabilities and cost advantages in producing high-quality phosphate products [5].
【基础化工】磷肥出口放开,持续看好磷化工产业链——基础化工行业周报(20250517-20250523)(赵乃迪/胡星月)
光大证券研究·2025-05-24 14:24